Evenly matched NY juvenile fillies try to take Flight

Grecian Flight

1986 f.  CORMORANT (His Majesty) o/o Green Greek, by Green Ticket(Traffic Judge)

Grecian Flight personified (or equinified) the epitome of the qualities breeders would want from a homebred – speed, class, toughness, and longevity.  The New York bred daughter of G1 Jersey Derby winner Cormorant was born in 1984; she broke her maiden at first asking in a November 2,^, 1986 Aqueduct Racetrack effort, then reeled off 2 more wins before placing second in the G3 Tempted Stakes… that on December 14, 1986.  Do the math – that’s 4 races in 42 days.  After another win in January and a brief winter break, she returned on April 5^th, 1987 to take the Bouwerie Stakes (listed).  She came to prominence during a 22 day stretch in which she won the G2 Black-Eyed Susan, followed by the G1 Acorn, and then a second in the G1 Mother Goose – a not-too-shabby 3-1-1-0 record in what was known as the Triple Tiara (she was 4^th in the subsequent Coaching Club American Oaks). 

This would have been more than enough to call it a wildly successful career, but even after other failed attempts at the Grade 1 level, Grecian Flight went on to win 14 more races over the next two seasons, including several G3 races like the Monmouth Park Budweiser Breeders’ Cup Handicap, setting the track record for a mile and 70 yards.  Her final tally was 40 starts, 21 wins, 6 seconds, and 3 thirds, for a total of $1,320,215.   Adjusted to 1989 monetary values (cue the Travis Kelce sightings) that’s about $3.27 million in earnings for a New York sired, New York bred female who won didn’t need restricted company to do her damage.

The race today is named in Grecian Flight’s honor, but it is restricted to simulated horses bred in the state of New York… which for game purposes means the stallion must stand in New York.  For those non-Empire Staters scratching their heads about how they’ve seen real New York breds by Karakontie or Mucho Macho Man or Maclean’s Music (all sires of NY bred champions in 2022)?

 It’s complicated.  https://www.nybreds.com/rules/resident-non-resident-mares/

What’s less complicated is today’s race, for 2yo fillies on the dirt.  Let’s look at the field, with some gentle commentary.

HELLHEIST from the Kingranch master stables and affiliated with DelPenn’s texasace is undefeated in 3 career dirt starts, all in NY bred restricted company.  Some sleuthery leads me to believe the daughter of Bank Heist was bred by, debuted for a tag, and subsequently sent to auction by the Given outfit – but these are mere allegations.  Filly won two short field starter sprints and has never been headed in her short career.  Bernardini x Deputy Minister is the pedigree of the dam, a dirt marathoner with a foal by Special Week who won a G1 at 9f.    Chances: Looks legit, monster connections.

PERTY IN PINK has won one more race than her inside foe (4 of them) but has had 6 trips to post.  The Millerfarm homebred looked like nothing more than a useful points earner until stretching to 8f in a 10k claimer, where she drew off by 2 lengths.  The 77 speed fig on that effort was flattered by her next race, another easy win at 8.25f, this time for 25k but more importantly an 87 fig and a 2 length margin of victory.  Her sire Galilean (Uncle Mo) presents as a dirt sprint type, but has a stakes winner at 9f from a first crop of 46 foals. Dam won a G3 at 7f and her best foal broke his maiden at 11f, so there’s more evidence of quality at distance.  Chances:  Very solid; expecting another on the board finish.

TRY YET AGAIN is the most experienced juvy in the race with a whopping 10 starts, including 3 wins (turf sprint debut, dirt sprint conditioned allowance, strong win in open allowance going 8f.)  Her sire Teuflesberg is a sprinting mainstay; dam INCLUSIVE (Include x Rahy) was a dirt miler with an extensive produce record – hints from 2 full siblings to this one suggest her best efforts will come at age 4, and at this surface and distance. Rcdlogan bred and raced all of these and most certainly knows where to put them, but where the early success set her up nicely on form and experience (84 speed fig at a mile), the next 3 races suggest a plateau, or perhaps one needing a break.  If class supersedes form you can expect this one to be in the mix.  Chances:  Mixed signals but will keep trying.

MISSION BOUNTY is a first time starter by the decent NY stallion Mission Impazible (positive) out of a single race winning Eddington mare PIRATE’S CUTLASS (negative.)  Her best foal (four previous tries) is a nice Mendip gelding who wins 16f restricted races in Turkey.  Highland racing stables is to be commended for giving it a whirl in a short field, and gets a jockey I like in D Fendlay Jr., but the dark blue CPU analysis and 79-1 morning line odds tells you this is a tall task.  Chances: Mission Improbable

BANCO DE CONCHA is the first of two entrants from the NY-focused stables of Beisbol (it me.)  She hit the board a bunch of times sprinting but the speed figures didn’t move me, so I gave her nearly 4 months off and she responded with a nice looking win going 8f last out (88 speed figure, NY restricted maidens.)  Sire Central Banker will get you a useful one, albeit skewing more sprinty as a son of Speightstown.  This girl is the 17^th and final foal from my homebred Storm Cat x AP Indy mare CUCHI CAT, who has thrown a Breeders Bowl Marathon winner (14f), a G1 Forego winner (7f), and a whole lot of bad sire choices inbetween.  Her half-siblings COLONEL COOTER and THREE.ONE FOUR are also participating in the NY festival this week, with Banco being the one expected to fare best.  Chances:  As good as any.

SINGAPORE MISSION is the second Mission Impazible in the field, but this one has been running regularly since February (9 starts, 3 wins.)  Slowroll stables had her in tough Empire State Residency races vs. the boys, so it was no surprise when she won the next 2 of 3 in regular old NY bred company.  She was running late in her only dirt route try (80 speed in another ESR race) but has a turf route and two dirt sprints since.  On the face of it she isn’t fast enough, but if you ignore the last 3 prep-type efforts, you can imagine her improving to 90+ range today.  Nice backend pedigree of Awesome Again x Tapit; the dam SINGAPORE GRIP has a Solomini colt named AWESOME SOLO who won the boys’ version of this race – the Tiz The Law Stakes – last December.  This one is dangerous.  Chances:  Better than most.

FAR FROM KHALI has improved her speed figures in each of her 4 starts following a 7 furlong debut on soggy Vermont turf in June.  Expert trainer Dixiedotco is known for high-level excellence but also dabbles in the state bred ranks; this daughter of Al Khali (Medaglia D’Oro) has only faced New York breds and is looking like she wants two turns or more (maiden win and fast closing second in her last two at 1700m.)  Dam CRAZY ‘BOUT YOU has a royal pedigree of Curlin x AP Indy which suggests room for further improvement with time and distance.  The horse who beat her in a boys NY Alw N2L last out, FIRE IS CHANGE, impressed his trainer Newfydowns so much so that he runs next in a sponsored open listed stakes in Ontario.  Chances:  Cannot discount.

TEN CENT SCENT is the second half of the Beisbol uncoupled entry (it me again), but with a decidedly different pedigree and backstory.  She’s the daughter of Tencendur, a Warrior’s Reward stallion I had never used but fit the profile of a speedy source of inbreeding – the good kind – for my Zensational mare FAR FROM IT.

http://derbyfever.com/includes/wikipedigree/pedigreesim.asp?horse1=386204341&horse2=505000981&horse3=123306472&horse4=361036698&horse5=

Mama won the G1, 7f Everclear Handicap back in 2013, earning a BB F&M Sprint entry where she burned a lot of money as a stalker/closer who did little of either.  As a broodmare she was a bust until I went to cheaper sires; first Texas Red (currently 39 BP, result – $250k winner, allowance type) then Qafeef (28 BP, result – G2 winner nearing $500k).  Expecting a sprinter, she debuted in one of those impossible ESR races in April and showed a little speed but couldn’t finish (67 SP).  I brought her back 5 months later in another sub stable, shortened her to 5.5f where she ran a respectable 2^nd with a 76 SP.  Something about that effort didn’t look like the running line from her mom or siblings… it was kind of… even.  I took a shot in a boys race going 8f about 40 days later, and she led most of the way before succumbing to the winner Woette’s LITTLE BIG ZAPPER) with an 85 SP.  That one ran a 92 next out in open allowance company, and that is why you see me entering a maiden in a stakes race.  Skeptics may see a rabbit for BANCO DE CONCHA but if we see another jump in performance (3^rd off layoff, maturity, etc.) I think she could easily be top 3.  Chances:  Very biased writer thinks she will spoil the exacta.

OTSONDOA has a lot going on in her past performances, and all of it is good.  The five time winner from 9 starts ran in two claiming races in January, won two allowance sprints and was placed in a stakes, all before winning her route debut in lifetime effort #7, a front-running 83 SP.  Ok-but-not-Great efforts in two subsequent NY bred allowances (84 SP win, 83 SP loss) may be a little cause for concern, but her profile mirrors that of SINGAPORE MISSION (returning to best distance) and TRY YET AGAIN (back class), which are good things.  I am unfamiliar with her sire, the Pulpit stallion Bethel, but owner/breeder/trainer Belagua aka Ormax already has 3 stakes placed foals from the dam ALDAMAR (Indian Charlie x Diesis).  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one take to the turf as well.  Chances:  Contender if primed and ready.

BANQUERA YANKEE is the other Central Banker filly in the race, out of the dirt sprint stakes winning ENCOSTA DE HALO (Encosta De Lago x Halo).  Current #5 trainer in the world by (non-hot) wins, Haack has campaigned 3 other full siblings out of this mare; something I have rarely seen in the game.  It has been working.  6yo BANQUERO DE LAGO was only recently retired with 10 wins, $504k earnings, and a signature win in the 2021 CVBear’s Gotham City Classic (I am reviewing that one later, after some rest, thanks.)  5yo OTRO BANQUERO, literally “the other banker”, has a great name and almost as great resume.  He’s still on the track, racking up 9 wins from 23 tries, $471k and a win in… wait for it… the 2022 CVBear’s Gotham City Classic. 

Before we move on, I’d like to wager 10,000 credits in the futures book… I have a horse I love in the 2024 CVBear’s Gotham City Classic.  Lay me 30-1 and we can talk (DM me at ‘thereisnosimfuturesbook’)

3yo BANQUERO CENTRAL (Haack strayed from the Central Banker model in 2021) has not yet won a stake, but he just crushed an 8f dirt mile allowance (3yo NY breds) with a front running 112 SP score.  Maybe he’s the 2024 horse to worry about.  Nevertheless, you can see what big things are expected from this well-connected female.  On her own merits… she has been less than sensational.  7 tries to break maiden, and only then in a conditioned allowance race with a 74 speed figure.  Naturally the distance (her first 8f go) woke her up;  she ran a weakening 2^nd 83 SP next at 8.5f, then an even 4^th 81 SP going 7f.  The latter is looking like a prep for today’s race; I would not be surprised to see her amongst the frontrunners.  If her pedigree kicks in, we (the other trainers) will be kicking ourselves and copying Haack’s sire combos.  Chances:  Ignore at your own risk.

LEE IN ALBANY completes the field with a yo eleven number of entrants for high percentage trainer Biaggio.  Bred by gunsblazing from the Nighthawk / Kirby series of stables, the daughter of Lookin At Lee is undefeated in 3 races of her peers; she finished first against NY bred fillies in 5f, 8f, and 8.5f allowance races.  An 85 SP on October 2^nd was most impressive; perhaps the previous owner was frustrated the lack of conditions remaining when entering her for a $20,000 tag against the boys, experimenting with a turf sprint.  It resulted in a 2^nd place finish, but more importantly an astute claim for Biaggio who has her well rested for a return crack at the NY girls today.  The upside here is tantalizing, being out of a War Front x Kingmambo mare who won 5 allowance races on dirt, and an 11f stakes on turf.  The sharps are all over this one & the Slack chat will be buzzing if this one uses the turf-to-dirt-to-stakes winner portal that we all hope is a reality in the game.

Summary:

Holy Hapless Dart Tosses, Batman, this race’s outcome is as murky as the depths of the East River itself.  From 11 entrants, 9 of them have morning line odds between 9/2 favorite TRY YET AGAIN and three horses filling out the 9 spot at 9/1.  The other two are maidens.  I wouldn’t be surprised to have 4 or 5 future stakes winners in the field, and a graded victory or two isn’t asking too much.  Congratulations and kudos to all of you who are breeding these thoughtful NY breds.  Thanks as always to CVBEAR for putting on this amazing series.