Get your Winchester Ready!
The Grade 2 Winchester park Derby lines up a full field of 14 3yo horses, many are going into different directions, the field lacks a real superstar, some horses have come their way up through Ungraded Racing, while others already have had their struggles in Graded Company, there is no real cut favourite, with the bookies giving the edge to No 4. Flying Brian, but let’s take an in-depth look into the field:
#1 CHOSE TO LOSE(AUS) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153242
10 Races – 5 Wins – 160,830$
If you see a Redoute’s Choice x Galileo Breeding you would usually think of a top star turf horse, and with that ambition the career of Chose to Lose began, but after flopping completly in his 2nd race, he was switched to dirt. And from then on he never looked back, he broke his maiden in his 4th Race in early March, and from then on improved every race, winning 5 in a row, two of them stakes races. He struggled in Graded competition, finishing 4th and 2nd in Grade 3 Races, the last one over 12f, but despite his great 111, a lifetime high, his connections choose to go back in distane again. He might like longer distances, but the standard in this 9f event is not that high, if he can reproduce his performance from his last race, he could be there in the end.
#2 SPORTS JERSEY(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=37669
12 Races – 3 Wins – 138,429$
The 3yo Empire Maker Colt, already had been switched between dirt and turf, but he proofed to be the way better dirt runner, despite breaking his maiden on turf. He only won 2 ALW races this season, but his form has been going upwards the last two races, finished 4th in the Grade 1 It’s my Birthday and…. Stakes, however his speed numbers suggest nothing too great. A 105 is his lifetime high over 9f, he likes to be near the lead early, and should be there today like usual.
#3 SMELLY GREEN STUFF(ENG) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=14213
16 Races – 4 Wins – 235,878$
Another horse starting his career on turf, but after struggling for 7 races, with still not posting speeds faster than the low 70s, his trainer decided to give her a try on dirt, and the Green Desert Filly rewarded him with some nice races. Her biggest win came in January, when she won a Stakes race. After that she went into Graded Races, and hit the Top 5 most of the time, just coming short in 2nd in the Jockey Guild Stakes in April. Last time out she finished 4th in the Grade 2 Wooly mamooth BB Oaks, it’s tough to say, why her trainer decided to match her up with the boys, but she’ll need to improve a lot from her lifetime high 104 speed mark.
#4 FLYING BRYAN(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=32508
11 Races – 5 Wins – 470,227$
The 3yo Royal Academy Colt brings a lot of Graded Experience with him, he won the Grade 2 Captain Hook and Federico Stakes back in April and March. He then struggled in two Grade 1 Races, finishing 8th and 4th in the Princess Cup and the Smackdown Mile Event. I had the chance to see him live last time out, when he tried for the Grade 1 Swamps Stakes, a classy race in California, and he just hit the front, when the pack entered the home stretch, just being caught and beaten by ¾ lengths by Wireless Eavesdrop, a classy Grade 1 winner. The bookies made him the clear favourite for todays race based on his 112 performance that day in California. Look for him not giving up the lead today, if he can get it.
#5 SEVEN STRIKES(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=55520
18 Races – 3 Wins – 282,030$
The 3yo Smart Strike Colt is another horse I already had the chance to write about this season, but his 5th place finish in the Hollywood Knights Classic was not a highlight in his career, since then he failed in the Restricted 10f Smackdown event, and then won an ALW race over 9f. Despite the winning effort his 102 mark makes him just an outside shot in todays race. He likes to trail the field early, and has a nice kick heading into the home stretch, however not likely good enough to challenge today.
#6 BERNIE BERNIE(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=2809
13 Races – 4 Wins – 117,170$
Till Mid June the 3yo Bernardini Colt looked like a rather average ALW horse, that had his share of wins and 2nd places in ALW races. In June his trainer decided to go for Stakes races, and his first Stakes Race over 10f was a bad race, he just put down a 93 and finished 9th. But despite the bad outing his connections believed in his class, and jus cut down his distance, and Bernie Bernie provided the classy race they waited for in July, he exploded for a 110 winning a Stakes Race over 8.5f. Look for him to try coming back from the end of the field again today, and then having a great turbo inside the last 3 furlong. He can challenge, but needs to repeat his great performance from his last race.
#7 UCANTBREAKMYSPIRIT(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=10961
12 Races – 3 Wins – 306,780$
Another horse with a lot of Graded experience is this Broken Vow colt. He even ran in the last race of the Triple Crown, the New Yorker, however his performance was pretty average, finishing 8th in the 14 horse field. After that his owner decided to take a step back in distance and he finished 4th last time out in a Grade 3 Race over 9f. He will try to get better than his 102 this time. His lifetime high has come in a Stakes race over 9.5f, winning with a 108 in march. It looks like he stopped maturing at that point, and struggled as his distances got longer. He’ll try to rebound today, but even his lifetime high may not be good enough for a win.
#8 SHHHHHH(KY) 28/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137989
17 Races – 1 Win – 77,060$
Likely the biggest outside shot here, I really don’t like it, when owners put their average ALW races into Graded races just to show their colours, hey, it might not be in your interest to show how bad your horses are, ok, I’ll take the motto of the colt and be quiet.
#9 MAX’S FUTURE(KY) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=150648
8 Races – 4 Wins – 133,175$
Another long shot, just a tap better than #8, the Belong to Me colt still has a lot of room to improve, he has only run 8 races, and 4 of them have been wins. Horses like that can explode every day, so his two 2nd places in Stakes Races recently might not be the top of the ladder. I fear the race comes to early for him, but if he can handle the extra furlong, and top his 102 lifetime high, he could challenge for the lead, and perhaps show some staying quality, but a lot of question marks surrounding him.
#10 ROCK HARD KORN(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=147280
14 Races – 4 Wins – 549,696$
Back to the more classy horses, the Rock Hard Ten Colt is a former Grade 1 winner, and want to get back to glory days here at Oklohoma, after winning the Lonesome Cowboy Bert Special he wanted to shoot for sim glory, but his New Yorker performance was just good enough for 5th place. However a 5th place finish in a Triple Crown Race still is something to be proud about. But from then on he struggled even more, not handling the sloppy track in the Giving Back Stakes he entered the Eddie Haskell Stakes. And despite a lifetime High 107 speed, he could only finish 4th. He likes to be placed in mid-pack early on, which should suit in todays race, clearly one of the favourites, and I think a Top 3 finish is possible, if he can set another lifetime high.
#11 FP ECTON FLYER(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=90248
12 Races – 3 Wins – 91,797$
The Fusaichi pegasus Colt is another one of the more realistic outside shots, but he’ll need to improve a lot. He showed some good tendencies in his last races, finishing 3rd in a Stakes race in Argentina last time out. However his running style of being at the end of the field early might not be to his favour today, with some horses in there, that will likely be a ble to be faster in the stretch. A 102 lifetime high mark looks not good enough by far today.
#12 RIGHTEOUS BEEF(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145749
14 Races – 5 Wins – 88,895$
Another horse I was able to cover in his last race, he ran in the 8f Equinics race for 3yos, and the Bluegrass Cat colt failed to reproduce his best marks, and a 107 was just good enough for 6th place, so he just missed out on the big pay day. He was on a 3 Race win streak, and I gave him a good chance in the Equinics. But the 9f trip should suit him much better than the shorter mile, he won 2 races at 8.5f with 110 and 112 spped marks, judging those speeds, and likely even being a tap faster at 9f, he could be there in the end. Needs a little more Graded experience, but the race may come on the right day. Pick him as i like this nice colt to have a big pay day today and perhaps double his lifetime earnings.
#13 THING ONE(KY) 30/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148108
9 Races – 2 Wins – 67,222$
I guess I spoke about average ALW horses in Graded Racing, well this one may be different, he just made a surface switch to dirt 3 races back, he won his first race 2 ago, winning with a nice 99 over 8.5f, and repeated that performance last time out in an ALW race. Look for him to improve much more on dirt, as he seems to have some potential left. However, this race may come to early, he should have looked to get experience in Stakes Races, before jumping into Graded Races. Perhaps better than his odds suggest, but needs to improve a lot.
#14 JOY’S KITTEN(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=147491
14 Races – 3 Wins – 84,296$
Well, i spoke about ALW horses in Graded Racing, no exception here, his lifetime high of 102 suggests nothing good, plus he couldn’t improve last time out, likely will end up trailing the field.
There you have the runners, and we really have no clear cut favourite winning machine, I like some of the more unexperienced horses a lot, but likely it will come down to the few, that have stood their ground in Graded races, I’d like to pick Rock Hard Korn over Flying Brian and Righteous Beef, but hey it always may come different in a horse race.