2023 BB Filly and Mare Sprint

Who you callin’ a specialist?

They didn’t all start out with this race in mind but career accolades are on the line in this 2023 edition of the Breeder’s Bowl Filly and Mare Sprint. Just like every year (except when it wasn’t), the race is contested at that tricky 7 furlong distance on a fast dirt course. Where better to run fast – although not quite all the way around an oval – but here in Simulated California?

Actual Donny Beisbol did exhaustive research and compiled copious quantities of quips and notes for the expected video retelling of the race preview. With music and sketches and everything. The Dell laptop PC (not a sponsor) decided that it’s video camera was going to project a black screen instead of actual representative photons or image facsimilies; and with Derbyfever IT stuck in unexpected Halloween gridlock (rumor has it the situation was f’ing unbelievable) an executive editorial decision had to be made.

And since I didn’t want to tell Spinround or Roxyken or whatever AI bot runs this operation that my article might appear after post time, I took it upon myself to improvise and do it the Luddite way by writing the whole damn thing out by hand.

Using my fingers, typing, on a word processor… but you get me.

So what do we have for you, besides the finest in fake horse journalism? Excellence, boiled down to its essence. Let’s just call that “excellessence.”

I’m going to throw my raw notes at you, which you should be able to ‘intellige’ as I assure you they are NOT unintelligible. My thoughts are another matter (I pay a lady to listen to me talk about them twice a month, so at least I am recouping some of that with the BTB cash.)

Some notes on the notes: Shortly after the pedigree you will see some numbers! These represent the hypothetical Dosage Index and Center of Distribution scores, found on the 5 x 5 pedigree link for each horse. If you are unfamiliar with this hogwash, its all based on some dudes’ theories that top level stallions (Chefs de Race) pass on traits in predictable categories based on quality at vaguely defined distances. Much has been written in the SIM and in the real horse life; for this you only need to know that Dosage Index DI = Brilliant + Intermediate + Classic x 0.5 / Classic x 0.5 + Solid + Professional. Center of Distribution is another formula I don’t care about, but lower numbers close to zero usually mean it likes long distance. Read this if you feel like it https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/237648/steve-miller-carrying-on-the-legacy-of-dosage

I put this in here because I do feel you can get a general sense of what a simulated horse MIGHT like if it is getting traits from these sires – more so if they are good ones, and have lots of Chef’s De Race in their pedigree. For a BB Sprint type I would want a number no lower than 2.5 but not higher than 5. Then I list the sum of the Chef De Race points (CDR or CDR points), just in case that means anything. And I like lots of CDR points, ’cause its a computer and it likes numbers. Maybe you can look at these figures and make something of them in terms of predictive models, what with us being nerds and all.

That’s what my girlfriend says, so I am contractually obliged to pretend that it is true.

I also list the inbreeding in the first 5 generations, but I do not include secondary crosses because you smart people should be able to figure out that if a horse is inbred to Mr. Prospector, it will also be inbred to Raise A Native. Again, predictive models, there are no ‘nicks’ in the sim, yada yada yada, one of these is going to win a Breeder’s Bowl race and we can all copy that breeding for future generations of pixel ponies.

What else? Stuff I thought was interesting or relevant about each horse and suggestive of its chances in this particular race. It’s not exactly “handicapping the race” so much as evaluating the horse and discerning whether or not it can excel (there’s that word again) at this particular time of its “life”, on this date at this distance and surface. There are “selections” at the end of the text, but if you are using them to place wagers, I suggest you a) stop confusing simulation with reality, b) text me the number of your bookie who accepts bets on computer games, or c) make sure Beerkeg is good for it

It will help to look at the PP’s during or after reading this stuff, for context. I imagine you’ll do that anyway!

Lastly – it would be conventional to run through the post positions and preview the horses in numerical order, but since I don’t care about that and want to force you to read about other entrants before seeing how I trashed yours, the horse previews are presented randomly (or at least that’s what I am telling you.)

Please enjoy!!!

BACKUP DANCER – CB1011 (faugheen)  #2

• Relatively new player (57 wins in primary stable) but 27% strike rate & undefeated 2yo DR. TUNA going in the BB Turf Sprint
• 3yo Scratch  Runhappy x Dixieland Band x Elusive Quality, 3×5 ND and 4×5 Mr.P, 4.0 / 0.90 10 CDR points
• Runhappy only has one G1 winner in the game, TANKINITTOTHESTREETS ( Willyam) but it happens to be the 6.5f Filly and Mare Sprint from 2020, run in NY.
• Aggressive 2yo campaign starting with a 2^nd in a MdSpWt on January 5^th!
• Huge speed fig jump when moved from 5.5 to 6f, then G3 win at 6.5 (California) in March
• Another spike when stretched to 7 (3^rd in the Exam stakes) and 7.5 (won The Outlook)
• Challenges – first time vs. older horses, two consecutive 107 SP not fast enough
• Could be even better at a mile?

PARASOCIAL – tenpoint #6

• Impeccably bred 4yo scratch INTO MISCHIEF x SEATTLE SLEW x STORM CAT
• 3×4 Storm Cat and 5×5 Hail to Reason  3.00 / 1.0  8 CDR
• Ultra consistent late bloomer, 111 to 114 SP in last 6 starts (excluding turf stake throwout)
• Sneaks into the race by virtue of wins in 7.5 listed, 7f G3, and 3^rd last out in the Nutcracker
• If you believe in the 2^nd G1 try angle, combined with upward form cycle, she could surprise
• CPU likes her a lot at 7-1 despite having the 2^nd least “badge” credentials in the field

CANDY TWO FLOSS  3away   #1

• 3yo Twirling Candy o/o Four Two Vote (broke maiden, barely) Dist Humor x Storm Cat
• 2.64 / 0.75  3×4 Mr.P  4×4 ND  (Classic)
• Never missed the board in 10 starts, 6 wins, 2 big G1s in CA Oaks and Chestnut Stakes
• Winner at 7f but only 3^rd vs 3yo in G2 in February.  That was then and this is now
• Big mystery if the improvement is distance, maturity or both.
• I suspect a little of both but imagine a mile is where she feels most comfortable, outside shot

GENUINE BLUEGRASS – bigblueracing  #12

• 4yo Craftily named scratchbred Authentic x Smart Strike x His Majesty 
•  2.14 / 0.50   22 Chef de race , 3×5 Mr.P
• Broke maiden in start 8 @3, rolled through conditions
• Has won 4 graded races at the distance, and 3 of 5 overall.  $1.7 mil + and not yet 20 starts
• 2 for 2 with D Givins
• Not a factor in G1 Everclear here in Cali but that was on 15^th start w/o a break
• Settle towards the back but not last and make a sustained run
• Super well rested, only 2 starts since June. A real badass.

‘O SOLOMINI – tenderfoot (trotter1)  #5

• 5yo NY bred SOLOMINI o/o Walla Woolu, SW at 6.5 and dam of another G2 winner at 8.5f
• SUMMER SQUALL x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR   3.57 / 0.81  21 CDR points
• 4×4 Mr.P 4×5 ND  5x5x5 Buckpasser
• Several ESR and Local bred stakes wins 6.5 – 8f, but broke out with G2 win in Bed Of Flowers 7f
• Even fourth last out in the Nutcracker behind Genuine Bluegrass
• Millionaire maybe just past her prime in start #28, but BB appearance is an appropriate bouquet of flowers to close out a great career.  Maybe a prep for a CVBEAR NY stake in December?

SASHA SPARROW – beerkeg  #3

•  5yo Scratch No Nay Never x Nureyev x Tapit   1.67 / 0.40   3×5 ND, 4×5 Mr. P
• If that feels like a turf pedigree, beerkeg thought so too.  $1.45 mil on the turf
• G1 wins at 6.5 and 7f, G2 at 6f, plenty of seconds & ranked #1 in turf sprint division
• Moonlighting in dirt sprints after a poor effort in the 2022 CVBears Hometown Turf
• Caught by Just Regal in Everclear, went back to turf and won the 2023 CVBears Hometown
• Followed it with a win in G1 Trains on dirt, off a 3 month layoff and didn’t have to ship
• Would be my HOY candidate if she pulled off the victory.  Lifetime best 115 last out in start 20. Jockey is 11.7% lifetime

JUST REGAL – scout2 #8

• 4yo Justify o/o Gigawatt Reality, a Bernardini x Storm Cat stakes winner best at 5.5f
• Half to MORE THAN REGAL (More Than Ready) 6f GSW
• Half to EXCEEDINGLY REGAL (Exceed and Excel) 6f GSW
• 2.50 / 0.57 14 Chef De Race points, 3×5 AP Indy and 3×5 Storm Cat
• Precocious 2yo, 3 wins including 2 stakes and a close 2^nd in G1 Dell Computer
• 3 GSW at 7f, last was Everclear but close last out in G1 Trains (SASHA SPARROW)
• Likes the track, rounding into form after lackluster 2023 campaign, a shot from 2^nd tier

MORE THAN SHAPE – jacklad #13

• MORE THAN READY o/o Out of Shape,  the 2014 winner of this race!
• Distorted Humor x Storm Cat  2.50 / 0.79 14 CDR  4×4 Mr.P 4x5x5 ND
• Mom made $2.3 mil and won an End of Year award, foaled superstar HE’S IN SHAPE who won 4 G1s including the Sand Castle Sprint, was 2^nd in 2017 BB Sprint
• This 4yo was a monster at 2, undefeated 4 for 4 G1 Frickazee stakes winner heading into BB Juvy Filly but threw an inexplicable clunker
• Reinvigorated at 4 with lengthy spacing, only 3 starts this year but a 1^st and 2^nd in two 7f G2 races
• Tough post and a tick behind the top contenders in speed figs but could get a check

WIDOW’S WEB thethumb19, Lenny271  #9

• 4yo South African speed source VAR x Widow’s BETRAYAL (Redoute’s Choice x Deputy Minister)
• Dad has 2 SIM G1 winners, ION MY WAY (BB Juvenile – Deeprock) and ITSHELLTOGETOLD 2yo G1 Getaway Stakes  7f
• Mom won a listed stake at 10f on the dirt, been throwing long distance allowance horses
• 1.67 / 0.25  4 CDR  3×4 Storm Cat and additional 5×5 ND to make her 5x5x5x5 ND
• Breeding experiment paid off, late blooming first stakes win at 4yo  6.5f, then right back with a G2 at 6.5f
• Close third last out in The Trains and is steadily improving for the game’s leading trainer of  winners (hots excluded) and stakes winners (432 at publication time)

Speaking of hot races, did you know there is a trainer who has run 16,104 entrants in hot races just this year?   Windcountr didn’t expect to be in the BB preview, but here you are!

My favorite HOT race trainer is Sipe, whose 2023 record is 254-242-10-1.  Which means he had only 1 who ran 4^th or worse.  95.3% wins and 99.6% in the money.

SPEIGTHFUL GAL stockswami  #4

• 4yo scratch SPEIGHTSTOWN X UNBRIDLED SONG x AP INDY
• 4.00 / 0.83  30 CDR points, no stamina side  3×5 Mr.P 4x5x5 Secretariat
• 7.5 G3 win and 8f G2 win in last 3 starts
• Strongest recent form but 7f speed is significantly less competitive 3^rd w/ 106 SP
• Almost stole The La Zebra on the lead at 7 last year, but usually comes from far back

NUKA SASSY – xmonster2 (Lenny271)  #7

• 3yo LONHRO o/o Sassy Liz,  won a listed at 6f but also dam of Dell Futurity winner Before Dawn
• Only Aussie sired entrant, 3.00 / 0.72  18 CDR   4×4 Mr.P 5×5 Buckpasser
• 6 wins in 7 starts, the last being G3 at 6f for 3yo only, so a lot of new variables today
• 109 SP last out is a career high, but lightly raced and never went this far on dirt
• Value play at 38-1 for “the other Lenny” aka Ryan

NIGHT CONFESSION – supertaffy #10

• Speed demon 3yo NYQUIST o/o Deathbedconfession, won a listed stake at 6f
• Quality Road x Saint Liam (underrated!)   3.00 / 0.50 only 4 CDR points, 5×5 Mr.P
• Broke maiden on turf, scored 2 massive G1 wins when cutting back in distance
• 4.5f and 6f vs 3yo, on or near the front
• Couldn’t hold off NUKA SASSY last out, waters are deeper here
• Pedigree says 7f is fine but this is a tough place to prove yourself!

TRADITIONALIST – bigblueracing  #11

• 4yo scratch TAPIT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x FAPPIANO
• 3×4 Fappiano, 5×5 Secretariat, 5×5 ND  2.30 / 0.53 and massive 38 CDR points
• Ran 2 turns first 7 races of her career, then came alive last summer in 6.5f dirt sprints
• Only a listed win at 6f on the resume, but last out was a huge 2^nd in the Nutcracker
• Getting good at the right time, but will need a perfect ride and a middle move in a race with plenty of speed at the front. Second entrant for bigblueracing (somebody check for scouts on the sidelines)

NONEXISTANT NELLIE – beisbol #15

• 0 year old never-bred, not by No Nay Never x Not This Time x Real Quiet
• Does not have a pedigree, spot in the race, or the ability to race
• Just checking to see if you’re paying attention

AVASALLANTE – haack  #14

• MALIBU MOON o/o Manuelita Saenz G3 winner at 7f, also foaled a G3 winner on turf
• STORM CAT x MR. P means lots of colors on the 5×5
• 3×3 Mr. P, 4×4 Secretariat, 4×5 Nijinksy II 3.00 / 0.84  32 points
• Steady but not spectacular, late developing 4yo w/15 starts
• G2 win at 7f in July, closed from too far back in Nutcracker but will have pace
• 3 for 4 in California and brings the rider with them; why not?

The prognostication: WHY NOT, INDEED?

AVASALLANTE- wicked pace meltdown works in her favor, last to first

GENUINE BLUEGRASS – clearly the one to beat, timing is everything

SASHA SPARROW – best of the speed, tall task pace & unheralded rider

NUKA SASSY – probably too inexperienced, probably not a 7f dirt horse, probably Lenny is going to make us all look foolish when she wins for fun

Speaking of fun… have fun, everyone!!!! Thanks for reading & comments of all kinds are welcome.