Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf Sprint for 2yos over 5 furlongs

Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf Sprint for 2yos over 5 furlongs

Friday, November 3, 2023 — 8:30:00 AM EST | Race ID : 3016310 | California – Turf (expected going: Firm)

Let me take you back a couple years when this race was a ‘lowly’ Grade 2 event on the Breeders’ Bowl undercard. I had returned to the game in 2019, following a hiatus, and was rebuilding from scratch as I had handed control of my previous stables to other players who had amalgamated them into their own. I had a horse who had won readily in a MSW and I was looking for somewhere to send him next when I spotted that there was an empty spot in the BB Juvy (I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t find one these days!) and duly entered him. The handicapper wasn’t taking any chances and sent him off at a measly 9/1. Whilst that gave me hope, I wasn’t over confident and the horse ran a stinker trailing them all home.

Fast forward to last year and the race had been upgraded to the Grade 1 event we see today. There were never going to be any ‘spare’ slots for that one but I was sitting pretty with my most successful horse to date, Unfarnan. He wasn’t the best pedigree (a bit of a mish-mash of Turf and Dirt sprint sires and route sires) but he’d been winning some top races with a couple of G1 successes. He duly obliged and provided me with my sole EOY horse (to date).

Don’t get me wrong; my experience as a BB winning trainer counts for very little when it comes to trying to pick the winner of a cavalry charge for 2 year olds! Indeed, I have a God daughter aged 5 who seems to have more success in picking winners based on horse names and the fact that the jockey was wearing silks of the ‘flavour of the month’, colour-wise. But, I’ll give it a go.

Without further ado, let’s get to the runners and riders:
(The form column shows last 6 finishing positions with the most recent being the last number)

Gate	Form	Horse	Owner	Jockey	Odds	Pedigree
1	111133	Frank Endorsement	fdllodgeb	J Dawg	5/1	FRANKEL (GB) x DYNAFORMER x STORM CAT

The big question is whether or not the owner, fdllodgeb, named this colt to curry favour with francua. It’s on the internet, so it must be true! He is our favourite for the race and if he can replicate his early form, an unblemished record for his first four races, he’d be on the savvy punters’ tickets. His first defeat came when stepping up to Grade 1 company in The Firebird where an early speed duel with I Am Winter looks to have set the race up for the mid-pack closers. That race was won by House I Built (who has opted to run in the 8f race today) with Crayon Pier grabbing second by a few inches. The form with Crayon Pier was reversed in The Golden Shoe with a slight change in running style. Jockey J Dawg (who also takes the ride today) sat slightly off the pace in a stalker’s role behind the early pace set by What Do You Care but Personality Cult broke cover first and swooped to victory with House I Built staying on to run second. Don’t write off the jolly. From arguably the best draw, he could grab the rail and ride it all the way to victory. 

2

1113

Dark Angel Rock

ddkstables4

T Small

10/1

DARK ANGEL (IRE) x FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x RAHY

One of the toughest decisions a trainer has to make is whether or not to change the distance when a horse has won three times in progressively harder company. And having surrendered his unbeaten record, where to go from here. It’s not an easy choice after your horse was staying on the strongest in the Nationwide Stakes Grade 2 but could only watch a couple go away and leave you in third place. Was the step up from 6f to 7f a factor? Does Dark Angel Rock already need even more ground to grind out the victories? Or is he going to be happier in the middle of the cavalry charge of just 5f? He may have the early speed to stay handy from the #2 box but a prolonged battle for the rail with the horse inside might not prove beneficial. 

3

593619

Irish Natt

irishflyer

W Kewmwa

15/1

NATHANIEL x SPEIGHTSTOWN x I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS)

Trainer irishflyer saddles the next two. They have amassed a total of 22 races between them with Irish Natt the more lightly raced with 10 outings. I was hoping to get an insight from the jockey bookings but as with nearly all races of this calibre, they are both in the elite category. His last outing was in Grade 1 company in The Middlepark Stakes where he faded into a disappointing 9th place. That race probably came too soon (just 3 weeks) following a solid looking Grade 3 victory in The Aaron Burr. The Nonethorpe Grade 1 may hold a better clue to today’s race and Irish Natt looks to be held by stablemate Irishcolada on that showing and they both have something to find with Dr. Tuna and Victory Artist on that form. But this is the Breeders’ Bowl where dreams are made and other dreams are broken. With Nathaniel in the pedigree, Irish Natt could be a Force Majeure over longer distances in coming seasons. 

4

372301

Irishcolada

irishflyer

K Ledwith

10/1

PINATUBO x I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) x EXCEED AND EXCEL

It would be so much easier to just write ‘See Above’ for irishflyer’s second entry but there is more to Irishcolada than the bare form already discussed. He is beginning to look like an out and out 5f specialist, having won only once over further (and only 100 metres at that). His very early runs could have pointed to a very different career path but the improvement when switched to dirt was negligible and trainer irishflyer sent him back to the lawn. I’d like to see Irishcolada back in Grade 1 company after a couple of dirt races over 5f…but, please, give him a bit of a rest after this one.

5

143175

Old Crow

zoustar

Q Cassell

18/1

TEN SOVEREIGNS (IRE) x CALYX (GB) x CARSON CITY

There are different opinions on the issue of gelding horses in both the game and in real life. In the game, gelding tends to happen earlier and there ensues more discussion as to whether or not this actually has an effect on an unraced male (and as there is no way to know without cloning, the discussions will continue ad infinitum). Old Crow is our outsider today but I’m pretty sure the horse isn’t going to worry about that! He’s had a chequered career to date with both wins coming over 5.5 furlongs; his most recent in a Grade 2 event, The Bobby Papin, in early July where Irishcolada was back in 7th after getting involved in a five-way battle for early supremacy. Even though those tactics worked well on that day, jockey Q Cassell may need to give this one a patient ride and hope to pick up the pieces as the carnage develops.

6

11111

Dr. Tuna

napaspirit

D Evans

15/1

TIGER OF MALAY (AUS) x SHAMARDAL x DANEHILL

Some days, you have to ask just what medication is the handicapper on? The only undefeated colt in the field and whose victories have all been in 5 furlong races progressing in class every time and culminating in a hard fought win in The Nonethorpe Grade 1, where he had several of today’s opponents in behind. Trainer napaspirit (along with me and possibly every other punter in the game) will be taking out a mortgage to get a piece of that 15/1. I can only surmise that the handicapper is dubious about a pedigree with a first season Australian sire – maybe he should have checked last year’s results…

7

216120

Best Days Ahead

fairhaven9

E Banner

14/1

BEST SOLUTION (IRE) x HUSSONET x SEATTLE SLEW

The other gelding being sent out for this one is Best Days Ahead and this could be a case of nominative determinism (where the name of something/someone seems to reflect their career e.g. in-game jockey, D Rideout). Best Solution looks to be one of the better value sires in the game, consistently in the top 250 of each of the four seasons he has been standing. He is of the Kodiac line and if his pedigree works out, Best Days Ahead could be heading for a great career as a miler further down the line. Having said that, he’s no slouch now. Following a good win in a Stakes race in June (the form has since been boosted with half of that field going on to Stakes success), he chased home this season’s currently #1 ranked filly, The Girlfriend, over 6 furlongs in The More Nay Grade 1. He simply ran out of real estate that day and jockey E Banner might need to be wary of letting them get too far in front as seen in his most recent outing in the aforementioned The Golden Shoe where all chance of winning looked to be gone early on as he missed the break.

8

119122

Victory Artist

checkmate14

E Cerda

9/1

VICTOIRE PISA x LOPE DE VEGA x BERNARDINI

The further into the field we get, the harder it is to read the form! The bare statistics used in most past performance comparisons are beginning to rival perpetual motion devices in breaking the Laws of Physics! Three races back, Victory Artist sauntered past Irishcolada in taking a 5 furlong Stakes race and then endorsed that form in The Nonethorpe Grade 1, splitting the winner Dr. Tuna and third paced Irishcolada in a tight finish. The tables were then turned in the Grade 3 Cornwall Stakes. Trainer checkmate14 is looking to jockey E Cerda to get it right today.

9

127151

Rock The Sea

amir1653

N Ambrose

13/1

BLACKBEARD x FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x MISWAKI

Having looked into the most recent race for amir1653’s 13/1 shot, Rock The Sea, it was almost a relief that I didn’t need to delve too deeply into who won what and when. The Grade 2 Miller Reef Stakes was devoid of any of today’s opponents and was a masterclass in how to stay close enough to the pace to ensure you get first dibs at the duel unfolding ahead as a perfectly timed run resulted in a quarter length win. How good that form is, we will have to wait and see but the old adage is ‘you can only beat your opposition’. I should have stopped there… but I ventured forth and a feeling of deja vu found me studying more of the same old names as I looked deeper into The Firebird Grade 1. Maybe this Blackbeard colt threw the toys out of the pram when failing to get close early on or maybe the effort in trying meant he ran out of stem. Either way, his fifth place finish in his first attempt in the highest class was no disgrace. As seen in his most recent race, he may well have come on from that and jockey N Ambrose will be using all his racecraft to try and get him home in front.

10

111261

I Am Winter

checkmate22

L Radzinski

9/1

I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x KINGMAMBO

Trainer checkmate22’s second entry is I am Winter and also goes off at 9/1 – no help from the handicapper there. His most recent outing was a gate-to-wire victory in the Flying Children Stakes Grade 2 over 5 furlongs. The return to 5 furlongs looks to have been a shrewd move and he will relish today’s trip more than a few who are racing. He hadn’t had his own way in the race before that…yes, it’s another Firebird! He was looking reasonably comfortable at half way that day having claimed the lead early but it must have taken more of an effort than he showed. Once Frank Endorsement eased past, I am Winter’s race was run and he was going backwards from that point. I expect that the jockey, L Radzinski, will stick to the plan and try to be in front before the echo of the gate opening has subsided.

11

22224

Crayon Pier

corzak6

C Wyatt

8/1

PALACE PIER x ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x STORM CAT

Still a maiden – but with earnings of $307,675 from his first 5 races! Could this be the day that trainer corzak6 and Crayon Pier finally manage to make it to the coveted winner’s circle? Or will he have to wait a little longer? Let’s go a different way with this one. His first ever visit to the racetrack resulted in a second place behind a shock 55/1 winner – these things happen in January. Moving ahead to April and a surprisingly short Stakes field where the pattern begins to develop and Crayon Pier finishes between I Am Winter and 3rd placed Irishcolada. It may simply be that Irishcolada has raced so often that they were destined to meet more than once this season and indeed that was the case in The Triple P where they occupied the same finishing positions but once again, Crayon Pier found one too good. And the rest, as they say, is history… OK, that may be a cop out of sorts, but the next two races were The Firebird and The Golden Shoe and we all know how they ended (unless you started reading this from the bottom). If you can find a bookie quoting for next year’s European Guineas races, you might get some serious value odds for him…but do it before he breaks his duck!

12

1317

What Do You Care

bode

D Givins

10/1

MEHMAS x MORE THAN READY x SADLER’S WELLS

Note to self: Next year, pick one of the races for older horses! And heartfelt apologies to the remaining runners. I’ll try to do you justice, but it’s not easy when you feel like you rode each and every horse in at least 3 of the Group 1 races this season (just from analysing the results). Trainer bode’s charge, What Do You Care, started out in the notorious NW1y Allowance category. They are in effect 2yo maiden races but earn ePnts needed to enter higher level races. Kudos to trainers who worked this out. Of course, the tactic can backfire if the horse fails to win as those valuable BPs can soon drain away with too many bad results. No such issue in this case but the gate-to-wire victory could have easily turned out differently as he hung on by the proverbial ‘skin of his teeth’. With points in the bag and having posted a relatively good speed figure, bode sent him out in Grade 3 company for his second race. This time, he was mugged on the line by a couple of closers but you wouldn’t have bet against him a furlong out. Undeterred, he headed to the Grade 2 July Stakes and for the first time, he didn’t have his own way at the start, succumbing to an early challenge for the lead from one drawn nearer the rail. But, What Do You Care is all heart and more than a little stubborn! He persisted with the pace until he forced his way past at the 3f pole and cruised home. And then we come to The Golden Shoe (again). The race developed in the same manner as his previous race but this time, he was caught on the hop as the closers pounced. This is his first try at 5f, shorter than he is used to, and that could be key. If he gets across, he could bully his way to the front and put that teeth-skin to good use. 

13

113461

Personality Cult

asrstar11

N Labreche

6/1

NO NAY NEVER x DANEHILL x STORM CAT

There’s a racing term that is often banded about in racing: the horse popped. It simply means that the horse showed a huge improvement on anything they have done previously. It rarely happens at the tender age of two, but trainer asrstar11 must have been delighted to see Personality Cult ‘pop’ in the overly discussed The Golden Shoe Grade 1. In his early racers, he’d looked like it was a matter of time. He broke his maiden in a residency event (and they are historically the toughest races around outside Graded races) with a monster 72 speed figure on just the seventh day of the year! He has steadily improved on that number in each of his races but finding it difficult to win at Stakes and Grade 2 level. Two back, he was upped in trip and ran a respectable race in sixth over a mile but he never troubled the ones in front of him. Many trainers would have taken the improvement in speed figure (no matter how small) as a sign that they want further but asrstar11 took the bold step to drop Personality Cult back to 6 and was duly rewarded. His 97 ‘pop’ is the highest in the field and if he reproduces that, he’ll take all the beating.

14

111112

Meet NN Traeat

desplocal

F Gossett

16/1

SERGEI PROKOFIEV x NORTHERN METEOR x OASIS DREAM (GB)

The only filly in the race, Meet NN Traeat is going to be a nightmare for the race caller! (I’d stick with meet’n’treat and hope I’ve not done the desplocal filly an injustice). This young lady is every trainer’s dream come true…or their nightmare, depending on whether you were the claimer or the person who lost her in a claim. Trainer desplocal saw the chance and grabbed it. It was a risk as she’d won a HOT against CPU horses first time out and faced just one other non-CPU first timer in a local $17,500 claimer. Probably the deciding factor in the decision was that Sergei Prokofiev does tend to lean towards a turf preference – good spot. She then headed for a short field NW3L Allowance on grass and duly obliged. At his point in her career, she’d never seen another horse ahead of her in a race! That trend continued as she faced stronger competition in a Stakes event and then progressed to a full field Grade 3 victory. At this point, trainer desplocal could have stayed with Grade 3 – but we don’t do that, do we? Present them with ever bigger challenges and they’ll let you know when they’ve reached their limit. Well, Meet NN Traeat isn’t stopping yet – her steak continued into Grade 2 with yet another gate-to-wire display and the stage was set for the battle-royale with The Girlfriend for the #1 spot in the filly juvy turf sprint rankings in Grade 1 The Chevel. Everything was going to plan but with one tiny exception –  Meet NN Traeat suddenly found herself pulling away from the others. She’d never been more than 2 lengths ahead of the rest and maybe she thought she’d done her work for the day and was getting lonely in front. Whatever the reason, The Girlfriend saw her chance and flew on by and Meet NN Traeat had no response to offer. So, why would you send a filly to take on the boys? A stroke of genius in an attempt to regain the coveted #1 spot? Or the folly of pursuing a lost cause? If I were to be forced to answer that one, I’d have to go with the genius angle based purely on what desplocal has achieved with his girl to date.

So, who’s going to win? The expert has spoken and here’s what she says:

“I like Tuna for my tea but I like crayoning, so it’ll be a draw and it was funny when you were trying to say that last one and she’s a girl, so she’ll win as well”.