More Data Nonsense
We did the nerd stream the other night and in prepping for it found me going down a data rabbit hole of sorts. I did not really get an opportunity to go through all the analytics live so I figured I would write up a story on what it was I pulled. If you didn’t catch the stream its over on our YouTube channel found here: Derby Fever.
Mare Pass Attributes Analysis:
Every mare in the game has a rating called “Pass Attributes”. The name is exactly as it sounds as this is the mare’s chance of passing her ratings/attributes to her progeny. The way this rating works is in a loop so the chance the mare has to pass its ratings/attributes is applied to each individual rating as its own check. Example: The Pass Attributes rating = 50, Rating1 may be based off the mare, whereas Rating2 could be based off the sire. There is no real way for us to track which rating came from where for a specific horse, however I wanted to pass along a breakdown of the rating for mares. For complete clarity this only looks at mares not he-mares. For this particular analysis every mare in the game was used.
23% of mares have a less than 50% chance to pass their attributes.
23% of mares have a 50-60% chance to pass their attributes.
27% of mares have a 60-70% chance to pass their attributes.
19% of mares have a 70-80% chance to pass their attributes.
7% of mares have an 80-90% chance to pass their attributes.
1% of mares have a 90-100% chance to pass their attributes.
Speed
This is a very loose interpretation of the data so please take it with a grain of salt. This is not to say that horses will be limited to a speed number. It’s up to the player to get them there and beyond.
21% of horses can likely run 110 or higher.
50% of horses can likely run 100 or higher.
72% of horses can likely run 90 or higher.
90% of horses can likely run 80 or higher. (this means 10% of horses likely will not be able to obtain an 80 speed fig)
1% of horses can likely run 120 or higher.
The graphs below will tell a much more direct story. I used races from 2023 that were not hot races and had 5 or more horses in the field.
Definitions for distance are as follows:
Sprint <= 7.5F
Route between 8F and 10F
Long >= 10.5F
Speed 2yo
| Distance | AVG Dirt Winning Speed | Avg Turf Winning Speed | Type | Age |
| Sprint | 75.17 | 75.53 | Maiden | 2 |
| Route | 86.38 | 83.68 | Maiden | 2 |
| Sprint | 78.04 | 77.17 | Allowance | 2 |
| Route | 86.38 | 85.81 | Allowance | 2 |
| Sprint | 82.45 | 82.18 | Stakes | 2 |
| Route | 91.04 | 90.78 | Stakes | 2 |
| Sprint | 86.8 | 89.39 | Graded | 2 |
| Route | 94.68 | 92.8 | Graded | 2 |
Speed 3yo
| Distance | AVG Dirt Winning Speed | Avg Turf Winning Speed | Type | Age |
| Sprint | 88.65 | 88.69 | Maiden | 3 |
| Route | 94.77 | 94.19 | Maiden | 3 |
| Long | 95.85 | 95.85 | Maiden | 3 |
| Sprint | 92.48 | 91.23 | Claimers 75K+ | 3 |
| Route | 97.07 | 97.28 | Claimers 75K+ | 3 |
| Long | 90.04 | 91.40 | Claimers 75K+ | 3 |
| Sprint | 88.05 | 87.32 | Claimers < 75K | 3 |
| Route | 93.31 | 93.21 | Claimers < 75K | 3 |
| Long | 86.47 | 86.64 | Claimers < 75K | 3 |
| Sprint | 86.32 | 85.71 | Claimers <10K | 3 |
| Route | 91.64 | 90.57 | Claimers <10K | 3 |
| Long | 85.15 | 86.79 | Claimers <10K | 3 |
| Sprint | 96.06 | 95.36 | Allowance | 3 |
| Route | 100.86 | 100.85 | Allowance | 3 |
| Long | 97.86 | 99.98 | Allowance | 3 |
| Sprint | 101.44 | 100.57 | Stakes | 3 |
| Route | 106.10 | 105.81 | Stakes | 3 |
| Long | 105.45 | 105.53 | Stakes | 3 |
| Sprint | 104.96 | 106.47 | Graded | 3 |
| Route | 109.42 | 107.8 | Graded | 3 |
| Long | 106.14 | 104.76 | Graded | 3 |
Speed 3yo+
| Distance | AVG Dirt Winning Speed | Avg Turf Winning Speed | Type | Age |
| Sprint | 91.82 | 91.16 | Maiden | 3+ |
| Route | 98.69 | 98.17 | Maiden | 3+ |
| Long | 87.39 | 91.28 | Maiden | 3+ |
| Sprint | 99.94 | 96.52 | Claimers 75K+ | 3+ |
| Route | 105.38 | 103.89 | Claimers 75K+ | 3+ |
| Long | 95.10 | 97.59 | Claimers 75K+ | 3+ |
| Sprint | 96 | 92.98 | Claimers < 75K | 3+ |
| Route | 100.83 | 99.96 | Claimers < 75K | 3+ |
| Long | 90.45 | 92.47 | Claimers < 75K | 3+ |
| Sprint | 94.84 | 91.99 | Claimers <10K | 3+ |
| Route | 99.68 | 98.37 | Claimers <10K | 3+ |
| Long | 88.87 | 91.26 | Claimers <10K | 3+ |
| Sprint | 103.51 | 101.89 | Allowance | 3+ |
| Route | 108.37 | 107.6 | Allowance | 3+ |
| Long | 102.53 | 103.26 | Allowance | 3+ |
| Sprint | 110.25 | 108.94 | Stakes | 3+ |
| Route | 114.91 | 114.34 | Stakes | 3+ |
| Long | 109.57 | 110.46 | Stakes | 3+ |
| Sprint | 113.37 | 112.89 | Graded | 3+ |
| Route | 117.98 | 116.66 | Graded | 3+ |
| Long | 111.7 | 115.33 | Graded | 3+ |
Wire to Wire Runners
I cannot remember offhand, but I believe it might have been Stoners who asked about a wire-to-wire analysis a while back. Once again using data from 2023 with 5 runners or more and no hot races included in the dataset.
22% of races go wire-to-wire.
23% of all long races go wire-to-wire.
20% of all routes go wire-to-wire.
24% of all sprints go wire-to-wire.
Dirt
25% of all dirt long races go wire-to-wire.
20% of all dirt route races go wire-to-wire.
23% of all dirt sprint races go wire-to-wire.
Turf
22% of all turf long races go wire-to-wire.
21% of all turf route races go wire-to-wire.
24% of all turf sprint races go wire-to-wire.
Conclusion
What does all this mean? I don’t know, but I figured we geeked out yesterday and I pulled some data so I might as well share it with the community.
thx for sharing. Fun stream. W2W numbers have me rethinking my jock instructions. hmm
Thanks for sharing Frank.
I’m not sure I’m clear on the “Pass Attributes’ rating.
Am I right with this example:
Mare has a Pass Attributes rating of 70%
This 70% probability then runs against different ratings like distance, surface etc. to see if the trait is inherited by the offspring?
Apologies if I’m way off but I’ve watched you mention this on the streams and I still can’t get my head around it! If you could cover this again on the next stream that would be great. Thanks
You hit the nail right on the head Marky.
Thanks Frank. Great insight into the game 👍
Is the “Pass Attributes” always consistent?
If I had a mare pass 60% of her attributes to this year’s foal and she’s bred again this year, will she pass the same percentage?
Its baked into the mare so every time the mare breeds its the same value being used.
This is great stuff but probably too dense for my current aged brain.
What happens to the foal who DOES NOT get attributes past by the mare? Do they just get attributes from the sire? How about talent level?
What if the mare is not so good and has a 60% pass on and is bred with a top class sire?
It would run through one of the many loop variations that exist using the sires associated with the breeding.
Thanks for the “nonsense data”. Good insight into the game with mares. So, if I had a mare that was a G1 winner, and bred 4 or 5 kids off of her, and use her with some top sires and none of them come close to her ability, I would assume she has a low pass attribute figure and it may be a waste of time to breed more from her with top sires.
Its possible she has a low pass attribute, however I’d probably lean more towards her passing only some of the attributes as opposed to missing on all of them. It may be that she’s not passing the ones that are very obvious to the player.
When is the Mare pass attribute % coded? Is that one of the attributes it gets as a new 2yo or 3yo? Or is it something that is determined over the course of a mares career? Basically, does a trainer have any influence on this over a racing career or will it always be what was determined when the mare was born?
Trainers do not have any influence over the pass attribute value itself. Its a value that is baked into all horses at the time of birth and does not change at all.
Thanks for sharing!