Hot Pace ‘Floyd’s’ Closest Friend on Saturday
California’s featured Grade III Closest Friend Stakes for two-year-olds going six and a half on the main track drew a strong but small field, overloaded with early speed. Really, it couldn’t have drawn up any better on paper for Floyd’s Boy, a graded stakes veteran that has been looking for a little more ground, a tad less traffic, and fast early fractions. A son of the Miswaki mare Pirate’s Stance, he is two for five with two second place finishes, earning over $115,000. A debut win going four and a half was followed by an impressive allowance win at six furlongs, both races featuring Floyd’s Boy’s speed as he laid close to the pace and wore down his rivals. His three subsequent races, all graded races, resulted in defeat yet demonstrated that even when his natural speed is insufficient to secure a prominent spot, he will resolutely pass rivals from well behind. Bluegrass Derby day almost saw Floyd’s Boy remain a perfect three for three when he brought his solid resume through two races to the undercard Grade III Television Stakes. From well of the lead in the five furlong dash, the son of Maybry’s Boy rallied from eighth turning to home to finish a fast-closing second, beaten less than a length by Osotogari, easily one of the top juveniles at this point in the year. A trip to the Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile in Nevada allowed Floyd’s Boy to avoid Osotogari again, but this time, he banged into a winner named Boags St. George and a third place finisher named Brave Ulysses. Both the winner of that race and even moreso, the third place finisher, Brave Ulysses, would be heavy, heavy favorites in this race, as both horses fit right alongside Osotogari atop the division. He could muster only a seventh place finish in Nevada against the stiff company, running one-paced throughout. Returning to a track over which he had run well, he tested the Grade II Faber College Juvenile in Kentucky four weeks later. Finding yet another top notch two-year-old early in the race, Floyd’s Boy ran along with Hidden Agenda S near the tail of the field. Those two ran nearly in tandem, rallying to finish less than a length apart at the wire, Hidden Agenda S first, Floyd’s Boy second. It appears as though Saturday’s race should provide some class relief. Emphasize the speculative nature of that phrase; the competition Floyd’s Boy faces in the Closest Friend is not weak, but rather unproven. At this young stage in their respective careers, any member of the field has the potential to bust out with a breakout race, a career best performance that stands out from the priors. At first glance, slim favorite Kat Call is tempting to cast aside, not because of ineptitude, but rather his paltry 8-5 line and a form that hardly towers over those of his rivals. Take a deeper look, however, and you become increasingly inclined to diminish the importance of his most recent defeat. Moreover, his first three races, a second in his debut followed by a maiden win and a subsequent win in the Alypeach Special, become more and more impressive the deeper one delves. He debuted in Georgia, caught a big field for his first start, breaking from post thirteen of fourteen as a surprise post-time 2-1 favorite. His works were steady and his pedigree solid as a son of Street Cry out of the A.P. Indy mare Storm’s Flag, winner of six races, including a juvenile win, and earner of $131,289. Laying close throughout, he turned for home just off the leader, Sunset Cajun, also debuting, having drawn post eleven. Sunset Cajun did not relinquish the lead to Kat Call, leaving the favorite second. As it unfolded, losing as the heavily backed favorite to Sunset Cajun did nothing to tarnish the image and reputation of Kat Call, it only enhanced it. Kat Call wasn’t the only one that had problems getting to Sunset Cajun near the wire as it turns out. His debut win was just the first of three in a row to kick off his career, moving to a handy allowance win in his next start. Though a small field of just five in the entry-level allowance, Sunset Cajun handled Ivory Quest with little effort. Ivory Quest simply went on to win his next race, run a strong third in the Grade II Vermont BB Juvenile, then second by a head in the Grade III Montana Futurity, ending with a little class relief and a romping rout in the Maliciously Smell Bonanaza, his most recent start. Next for Sunset Cajun – a win in the Grade III Early Morning Special. Among his victims that day: Hidden Agenda S, who simply made mincemeat of the Grade II Faber College Juvenile in his next start after beating Floyd’s Boy earlier; Running Samurai, who got tired of Sunset Cajun and Ivory Quest and went to Kentucky, winning the Grade III Pea Patch in his route debut; Got No Socks, who looked like a winner if he hadn’t gotten in so tough this day, entered in not-so-tough the next time and won easily; Delite of My Life, who got annoyed with hearing about next-out winners from this race, so he has won his next two since the race, both stakes wins; Pirate Treasure, who thought it wouldn’t be anything new to win his next two, so he elected to run second in his next two. Those are just the six that run directly behind in Sunset Cajun in the Early Morning. I know it seems as though we have taken a long trip to make the point that Kat Call’s loss to Sunset Cajun isn’t a strike against, but it’s worth it. Amazingly, when Kat Call fired back into the entry box for another maiden allowance, he went postward only a slight 3.20-1 favorite, with debuting Seattle Exploit at 3.30-1. Seattle Exploit was never much of a threat to Kat Call, who tracked pacesetting J Is For Jason throughout, taking the lead near the sixteenth pole and holding the win over his early target. Again, on the surface, it may have seemed a stale win of sorts, as Kat Call appeared all out to edge out two longshots, with the only tote-supported rival a rallying, but non-threatening fourth. But as it turns out, like his defeat in his debut, he wasn’t facing a bunch of turkeys. J Is For Jason, his early company in the race, that ran second, he won not just his next start, but the one after that, an allowance. Seattle Exploit, the near co-favorite who ended up fourth, he too reeled off back to back wins, an easy maiden win followed by an equally easy allowance win. In fact the three that ran right behind Seattle Exploit – To The Death, Forest Ridge, and Zyman – all have since graduated the maiden ranks, with Forest Ridge even earning a placing in a graded stakes race. What it boils down to is that of the six horses that finished directly behind Kat Call in his maiden win, five returned winners, two of those winning allowances subsequently. The only of those six to not win, Facebruto G, has danced all around a maiden win with seconds and thirds galore. Maiden races for two-year-olds don’t read as being that productive this early in the season very often, if ever. So basically, on paper, you have a colt named Kat Call that ran second, broke his maiden, and then wins a minor stakes race. It looks nice, but not stellar. I’ve tried to demonstrate that his two appearances in maiden races were more than run-of-the-mill strong efforts that led to good placings. Interestingly, of his first three races, history shows that his win in the Alypeach Special, his first start against winners, may be the least impressive of his accomplishments. His rivals in that race, a mishmash of maiden winners and out and out maidens, looked unlikely to outrun a colt that had toyed with better. It played out that way as well, Kat Call scored his most convincing win, battling for the lead early and in command late. After a page of glorifying Kat Call, how then does one sugar coat the trouncing that he endured in his most recent, the Smackdown Stakes? Good question. He ran against some very nice colts in the fifteen horse field, five stakes winners, one of which was a graded winner, one that was graded placed and then another three in the field that hadn’t won a stakes race, but had placed in one. Still, the level of talent wasn’t so overwhelming that he simply should have run around the course far off the lead early and far off of it late. Kat Call had run each of his first three races at five and a half furlongs, laying close early and pouncing mid-stretch. The Smackdown Stakes, run at seven furlongs, was three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he had attempted. Perhaps, the new distance and the dream of future route races encouraged the connections to employ a new tactic with Kat Call in the Smackdown, encouraging early restraint from jockey Zimbob Wango. That possibility gives me hope of a perfect trip on Saturday, returning to his natural running style just off of the lead and getting first run on my top selection. I was eager to dismiss the likelihood of this short-priced favorite with a form that appears just slightly above average in relation to those of his respective foes. It became clear that indulging that instinct was simply foolish – this is a very nice colt, that despite just two wins, a maiden win and a minor stakes win – he has accomplished a substantial amount just in terms of the company that he had kept while still a maiden. The real question mark that is offered at a plump 5-1 is Will Chachin Shine, a son of Will He Shine out of Sooz Brew Slew AZ, a daughter of Milwaukee Brew. An earner of over $146,000, Sooz Brew Slew AZ had an adventurous career overseas, dropping from the allowance ranks as a three-year-old to claiming ranks as a four-year-old and resurrecting her ’cultish’ career in allowance company as a five-year-old, retiring shortly thereafter. Impressive back-to-back wins to begin his career left quite an impression on California fans eager to watch the late-running colt’s potential unfold as he ran farther. His careful transitions, from a four and a half maiden debut to a five furlong allowance for his second start, led to a predictable minor stakes appearance, the Woodcutter, run at a predictable five and a half furlongs, over the same surface as his two prior wins in as many starts. Falling well off the early pace and securing a clear spot in last of six, Will Chachin Shine was inexplicably jammed behind horses by jockey Martin Staples in an ill-conceived effort to ’save ground’. After committing to an inside run on the turn when a clear, three-wide trip would have by most accounts given the colt a huge opportunity to win easily, Staples was unable to ask the colt to run until well inside the three-sixteenths pole. The winner, Fly With Kirby, is now three for four in his career, with a fourth place finish in a tough edition of the Alnaab Avenger in which he was defeated only a length and a quarter. Chasing a very nice colt and being given mission impossible for a third of the race in an effort to do so, it was understandable that Will Chachin Shine could manage only a third place finish in the Woodcutter. In a bold move for the barn, despite the disappointing finish in the Woodcutter, Will Chachin Shine and his connections, eager to try six furlongs as the next logical distance, shipped to Nevada for the Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile. A colt that seemed more interested in stretching out to longer distances than in remaining on the same track or finding easy fields, Will Chachin Shine seemed like a player in the High Roller’s, maybe not a standout, but one that looked well intended and liable to run well. Instead, he ran awful. He assumed his anticipated position near the tail of the field and with great drama, simply remained there all the way around the track. He was tenth, eight and a quarter behind leaving the backside and he was tenth, beaten ten at the wire. Immediately after the race, it is easy to imagine that the connections were disappointed, but quick to look at the numerous obstacles that the colt was facing, new challenges for the first time. But then, you get wind that he had run a speed rating of 67, a figure that he earned in his prior start, and the start before that, after earning a 65 for his debut run. At this point, when staring at his form, you begin to wonder just how average Will Chachin Shine may be. He just simply hasn’t improved from a numbers standpoint and while I can, and am, the first to diminish the importance of numbers as the ‘end all, be all’ of gauging talent – the actual number may not be important per se, but you don’t like to see stagnancy. Improvement is improvement, and in a division where the competition may be tough to gauge in terms of talent when evaluating your own, escalating numbers, even somewhat low, but improving, increasing numbers are reassuring. Undeterred, the connections stay the course in search of the next most logical distance, six and a half furlongs. The Tiger Wells Cap offered everything for Will Chachin Shine – the perfect distance, a return to a minor stakes field, and a small group, limiting the number of ‘breakthrough performances’ that could occur in one race. Fortunately, his ‘breakthrough performance’ was not hindered as he accomplished the task set before him like a dutiful soldier. Last of the five from the gate, he settled into stride down the backside, waited to move outside until the five-sixteenths and simply breezed by the field en route to an easy length and a half victory. He left in the dust Ojai Meisque, snapping a three race win streak that had most recently led to a huge win in the Black Nine Handicap. He left in the dust favored Pittsbird, only a maiden winner from three trips, but the ‘wise-guy’ play after a troubled second place finish in an allowance in Arkansas his prior start. He left in the dust Amazing Maze, dropping from the Grade III Montana Futurity after a debut win. Chacin Shine hit that big number, a seventy-seven, ten points better than his career best. He beat a good field, a field of runners. Saturday, he returns to the track over which he ran his first three races, two of which were easy wins. He returns to a distance at which he is proven, the distance that produced his best number. His task – the only variable that he has not proven himself at – is to conquer a field of graded stakes rivals. The likely pacesetter? Jersey Mafia may be an unknown quantity, having run just twice, but without knowledge of his true talent and quality, it seems his rapid early speed is not an illusion, giving heightened credibility to his chances against the talent in the Closest Friend. A son of Posse, Jersey Mafia is out of Calabria, a stakes-winning daughter of Seeking The Gold. A six-time winner overall, Calabria fell just short of a quarter-million dollars in earnings during her twenty-six career starts, winning two races at age two and the other four at age three. After a brief four-year-old season in which she went winless in three tries, Calabria was retired. The fourth foal out of the young mare, Jersey Mafia is a half-brother to three winners, making winners of all four of Calabria’s foals. Discouragingly, studying Jersey Mafia’s half-siblings and his dam do little to help shape an opinion on what kind of quality the colt is and what can be expected of him on the big jump in class. Having defeated maidens and nothing else, it is of little help to evaluate the competition that he has faced to date, other than a slight bias towards suggesting that Jersey Mafia has faced very poor company. Unlike the field of maidens that included Kat Call – as well as five other runners from the race that came back to win – the field of maidens that Jersey Mafia faced when scoring his lone career win is a rather unaccomplished field, still comprised of only one winner seven weeks later – Jersey Mafia. He is not the only entrant that has some good speed, but he looks like the one that has most throttle to call on when needed to put the pedal to the metal. The quality? There is simply no convincing argument that can be made to suggest that he is any better or worse than any average maiden winner at this point. His times are average, his rivals in two races are average at best, and his three siblings have all proven to be, well, average. Jersey Mafia is the one that will probably register the most ‘career definition’ with the start against this company on Saturday. Fast Sequoia has made a career of outrunning his odds. He has run five times thus far, and this is what the gamblers thought of his chances each time: 75-1, 65-1, 64-1, 34-1, and 16-1. Those prices would imply that Fast Sequoia is a bad maiden or perhaps an even worse winner. Instead, the Australian-bred son of Bel Danoro has won his last two races, a maiden special and an open allowance, and really has never run a bad race. Though his debut produced a sixth place finish, he did beat eight horses home and was defeated just four lengths, hardly a despicable performance. He tried the grass course in his second career start, showed early speed and backed out of contention to finish eighth, beaten about a half-dozen. Again, it wasn’t a great race, but wasn’t horrendous, just bad enough to end the turf racing segment of his career, prompting a strong third stretching back to six furlongs and returning to dirt for his third start. It was nothing short of a very fine effort and to prove that point, prefaced back to back wins by the colt that ‘gets no respect’. The horses that he outran when breaking his maiden have not proven to be a very prolific bunch thus far, but he did outrun three very solid juveniles in his subsequent race. The allowance race did not contain a superstar by any means, but all three competitors had the credentials to make a case for victory in the race. Again on Saturday, it just doesn’t feel right touting Fast Sequoia as a candidate for victory, but I’m not inclined to be lumped in with all of the previous prognosticators that ignored his chances. It would be easy to get dismissive and walk the line, stating that this is just ‘a little too tough’ for him and that it would be nice to see him face an allowance field. But that’s a bunch of hooey anyhow; he’s just as likely to run an honest race in a Grade III and finish third as he is to run an honest race in a conditioned allowance and finish second or third. There’s no shame in being just good enough and comfortingly honest enough to get a piece against any field, yet just cheap enough to find it tough to win against any level at the same time. That may be the case here. Of course, Fast Sequoia has won two in a row. Ad Zeal brings a solid resume to the race after five starts that have produced a win and three third place finishes. With that said, he seems not only like the least likely to win, but probably also the most likely to finish last. That isn’t an indictment on the lack of ability possessed by Ad Zeal, but rather a reflection of the raw reality regarding the colt: he seems to outrun the horses that he’s better than and runs behind the horses that he isn’t better than. It sounds simple, but really there’s something to be said for a runner that runs his race each and every time, rather than relishing one field and balking at another, fluctuating individual efforts wildly. Ad Zeal simply runs to the best of his ability each and every time, indifferent to who he faces. A winner herself at age two that actually flourished as an older filly, Ad Zeal’s dam, Secret Zeal was similarly honest but unspectacular well into her three-year-old season. She ran good race after good race, but began running excellent races late in her sophomore season and it became habitual when she began her four-year-old year. Ad Zeal has never run a bad race really. And frankly, I doubt that he will run a bad race on Saturday. In fact, he will almost certainly run a good race, his best race. The problem is that unless there is far more under the hood that has literally been ‘on hold’, his best race, his usual race is not going to be good enough to win this. Honestly, I believe it will take very substandard efforts by more than one of his rivals on Saturday for Ad Zeal to hit the board. Handicapper’s Ramblings: I don’t think that Ad Zeal can win the race. I don’t believe that Fast Sequoia will win the race. That leaves Jersey Mafia, Floyd’s Boy, Will Chachin Shine, and Kat Call. Any of that trio can win this race. I do believe that Floyd’s Boy is the ideal key horse. He is proven under nearly all of the conditions of this race and I actually think that 2-1 is a decent price for a borderline standout. I can’t discredit the chances of favored Kat Call, but I’m not sold that a few of these can’t outrun him anyway. To that end, I’ll play exacta boxes, keying Floyd’s Boy with Kat Call, Will Chachin Shine, and Jersey Mafia. I left Fast Sequoia off of exacta tickets not because it seems impossible for him to crack the top two spot, but rather very unlikely. Simply looking to minimize investment in the unfortunate event that my key hooks up with the favorite in the exacta, I’m keeping my exacta investment a little lower so that I can invest in a trifecta. Key Floyd’s Boy first and second with the same three, but toss old Fast Sequoia in the mix as well. I don’t think that there’s an Asian-Americanman’s chance that Ad Zeal will crack the tri, and there’s almost as small a chance that Floyd’s Boy will miss the exacta. This strategy should yield at least a mild profit and should vulnerable favorite Kat Call miss third by a head, the exotics could be surprisingly bountiful.