Child Focus features field of hopefuls at 10 F

With the biggest international weekend of horse racing upon us, some of the best classic 3-year-old fillies and mares in the world are getting ready to tackle a mile-and-a-quarter dirt track at Vermont. With the skies all clear and the dirt smooth and fast, everything is setting up for a fantastic finish in the Child Focus Grade I Stakes, which will, as with all Equinics contests, distribute a purse of $1,000,000.

The race will benefit Child Focus, a European organization set up to support investigations in disappearance, abduction or sexual exploitation of children, and to try to prevent these things from happening in the first place. Please click on the link to learn more about the program and to send donations for this important service.

The racing is set to do the cause proud, so here is a look at the horses that will duke it out for pride and purse in the 2008 Equinics:

PP1      Bathsheba II(KY)                 dormello                      D Givins                      10/1

Rockhard Ten x Secretariat x Danzig                                     Blazing Saddles

This chestnut mare will be looking for her first graded win when she hits the Vermont dirt this weekend, representing the Blazing Saddles residency.  Finishing in the money in five of her seven races, Bathsheba II is coming off three straight speeds of 100 or more and shows some promise. She started the year by breaking her maiden and then winning an allowance before taking the listed Favallu Stakes. Her last two runs were graded, with a strong showing in the 9-furlong Denny Tario Oaks (Gr.II) that saw Bathsheba II run second to a horse she will challenge again here, Luzerne. That was also her best speed at 107. Bathsheba II then moved up to a Gr. I Smackdown last time out, but she found the going more difficult, finishing fifth. While she has never run 10 furlongs before, neither have many other horses in the field, and she is the 51^st-ranked route horse in her division. She will most likely look to run up front, but may not be able to hang with this class of horse all the way to the end. I think the odds are quite accurate — a fine contender, but most likely not a winner.

PP2      Cosimo(ENG)                        stormboot2                  F Gossett                     7/1

Medicean (GB) x Danzig x Kris S.                                         Vermont

This Vermont residency entry should be comfortable on home dirt, and it is hard not to consider her a serious threat. The chestnut mare has won five straight races and has not finished out of the top three in almost a year. Cosimo first broke the 100 speed barrier with 105 in the Chestnut Stakes (Gr. I), beating the favorites and leaving Child Focus challenger Dehere Dabear in her wake. Last time out this runner put up a 108 in the Players Club National Oaks (Gr. I) for the victory. Also impressive is the fact that her three last wins all came at 10+ furlongs, showing the distance will not be an issue for this lady. She is the No. 11-ranked router and is listed as the top long-distance runner. I think she still has the potential to add more speed if pushed, as well. This all adds up to a very strong case for English-bred Cosimo, who may break the $1M earnings mark this time out. This is another horse that likes to lead gate-to-wire, so she may be the one setting the pace.

PP3      Annana(KY)                          ringott2                       H McCoy                    20/1

Kitten’s Joy-Song Wood, by Unbridled’s Song                     Ireland

This dark grey mare, run out by the Ireland residency, certainly is not lacking for stakes experience. Every race of her eight-race career has been of the stakes variety, with three of the last four being Grade I contests. Her results, however, have been mixed. Annana finished first in three of her first four races, but found less success after moving up in class. A trip in the California Oaks (Gr. I) resulted in a rough 11^th-place finish, while her last two times out saw fourth and fifth place results in the Hypnotic Explosion Classic (Gr. I) and Players Club National Oaks (Gr. I), respectively. Annana’s best career speed came in the Hypnotic Explosion with a 99, so she has yet to break the triple-digit mark. She has experience against a couple of her opponents here, but not necessarily success. Her last run was at 10 furlongs, and she seemed to fade a little bit as the closers went by. I think there may be a similar scenario in play this time around, as she stalks the leaders, but may not be able to move past some of the more decorated horses in the field. However, it is also possible that she will continue to get better, as she has improved nearly every race, before dropping a little last time out on a sloppy track. She could be ready to break the 100 speed mark in the Equinics.

PP4      Quantumimmortality(ENG)      homearoan       F Neely                       84/1

Starcraft (NZ) x Irish River(FR) x El Gran Senor                  EWC

After starting her career strongly, this brown mare has struggled a bit since moving up the competition ladder. The EWC runner has a good deal of stakes experience, having run in five graded races and three more listed stakes. Her last two times out, in sprint allowances, she finished fourth. In her lone Gr. I race, last year’s Graduation Stakes, things went very wrong and Quantumimmortality was left distanced and out of contention. She has, however, finished in the money in all three of her listed stakes, including a runner-up finish in the N. Dancer Memorial in April. The N. Dancer was her longest race, as she was stretched to 1 3/16 miles and ran the best speed of her career — a 93.  Her best graded result was a seventh in the Panhandle Park Oaks (Gr. III) and Michigan Sophomore Turf Invitational (Gr. II). Quantum’s only dirt run came back in October and was on an off track, so it’s hard to say how she’ll take to the dirt. Her speeds indicate that a mile-and-a-quarter may be a very nice distance for her. However, with her inexperience on dirt and struggles against top competition, Quantumimmortality will probably need to make up a lot of ground to find success here. She likes to stalk, but may find trouble finding her groove.

PP5      Depudini(KY)                        eddieboo                     V Jennings                  8/1

Bernardini x Deputy Minister x Buckpasser                           Alpine Turf Club

The Alpine Turf Club sends this brown mare representative to a stakes race for the first time in her career. After winning her first race ever, Depudini has mostly had success throughout her three years. After falling into trainer eddieboo’s hands in the spring, this runner has two wins and two second-place finishes. She has topped the 100 speed mark three times, with a high of 111 in a 15300NW4x last month. The main question mark here is that all of Depudini’s results have come at the allowance level or lower. With no stakes experience it’s impossible to know how she will do against the big guns. She has, though, shown a propensity to run well at this distance, with her recent success coming at the 9.5-furlong mark or longer. The odds-makers give her a shot, but she is unproven at this level. She will look to close, which could be a good strategy with some of the strongest horses wearing thin after dueling at the front.

PP6      Smell It(JPN)                         inzy4                           B F Abram                  11/1

Afleet-City Wild Cat, by Mountain Cat                                 The CR Racers

The residency stronghold of CR Racers pins its hopes on this chestnut mare to bring home some Equinics glory in 2008. Smell It is well-raced with 15 races already under her belt. She is coming off a nice layoff after a disappointing result in the Hypnotic Explosion Classic (Gr. I), in which she finished ninth. There she finished behind Child Focus rivals Mind Eraser (the winner) and Annana. While her last three races, all Grade One’s, were somewhat disappointing, Smell It did have a fine run in The Senorita (Gr. I) back in March. There she ran a career-high 104 and closed hard, but could not nip the leader, finishing just ½ a length back of near-million dollar earner Sensible. Her last race was the longest of her career at 9.5 furlongs, and I think she will handle 10 fine. The bigger concern is handling her opponents. I look for her to close well, but may still finish mid-pack. A faster-paced race would suit her well.

PP7      Woette’s Danseur(KY)         plstable                        B Child                       31/1

Sky Mesa-Pharao’s Battle, by Sahm                                       Benelux

Here is another horse that has had very nice allowance success. The brown mare has finished ITM seven out of 12 races, with all of those finishes at the allowance level. Woette’s Danseur’s last two races have been at the stakes level, finishing fourth in the listed Bee The One and then 12^th, fading in the Sister Hen Stakes (Gr. I). Her best speed-rating came in the Bee The One, sporting a 95. This is a horse that likes to get to the lead immediately, but has shown a worrisome tendency to fade, especially against the higher class stakes competition. While she has run many races at 9 furlongs, Woette’s Danseur has not yet gone 10, which increases my concerns with a possible fade. The Child Focus should provide a nice test for this horse, but it will take a lot to overcome the obstacles in front of her. Look for this runner to be one of the early pace-setters, but she will probably lose ground and be overtaken by the closers in the field.

PP8      The Green Man(ENG)         elagou                          P Munoz                      36/1

Green Desert-Gallywood Princess(IRE), by Galileo(IRE)     Queensland

The Australian-based residency sends this aptly-named brown mare to Vermont to see what she is made of. While the “Man” may not suit her well, “Green” certainly does, as she has made all 13 of her career runs on the grass. That means she will need to make the adjustment to dirt this time out. Not only that, but The Green Man will also be taking a step up in class, having never run against stakes competition before. However, there are a number of stakes newbies in this race, so some of them are bound to have some success. Will she be one of them? This runner has two wins and nine ITM finishes. In May she went 10 furlongs in a 40500NW3L allowance and finished fifth, 9 ¾ length off the lead. Since then, The Green Man has run closer to a mile, finishing second both times out with 92 speed ratings. She has used many different running styles, winning as a closer and as a front-runner, but generally seems to like to stalk not too far off the lead. I don’t see this horse to be a major threat, as her speed numbers haven’t shown me enough and her competition has been at the lower level. However, with her dirt ability a complete unknown, she could take to the surface and surprise everyone.

PP9      Sorocaba(KY)                       bluefox                        V Gardner                   24/1

Bluegrass Cat-Forty Nine Grand, by Forty Niner                  Rash

This Rash residency brown mare has finished out of the money only twice in her career, one of which was her first race ever. After breaking her maiden to start this year, Sorocaba won a low-level allowance before trying her luck in some listed stakes. She finished fourth in the Princess Concern and third in the Greatest Romance Memorial, both at the 9 furlong distance. Her last two races were 26000-level allowances, and she finished second and third. After running 90+ speeds the last three times out, Sorocoba may be able to bring those up if pushed by better competition this time around. She did win closing at the 9.5 furlong distance, which provides hope for this slightly longer distance. She tends to be a consistent runner throughout the race, with a slight closing tendency, so I look for her to possibly stalk and try to erase the gap down the stretch. I’m not sure Sorocaba is a threat to win, but I do think she will raise her game to try to meet her competition. This will be the toughest race of her career, though.

PP10    Dehere Dabear(KY)             peepshold                    P Haynes                     8/1

Dehere-Robot Chicken, by Deputy Minister                          GR Simsters

After back-to-back wins at the MSW and allowance levels, this brown mare reeled off nine straight stakes performances for Cobra Kai Racing and powerhouse GR Simsters. More importantly, it has been a relatively successful stakes campaign. Dehere Dabear finished second it’s first time out at the stakes level, ½ a length back in the Double Elk Stakes. Since then this runner has finished in the money five more times against stakes competition, including a victory in the listed Texas Hold’Em Challenge and runner-up spots in the City of Angels (Gr. I) and Smackdown (Gr. I). She ran a 106 last time out in Smackdown, closing well to finish just back of million-dollar-earner Black Flag Flying. Dehere Dabear did have a poor outing in the Bluegrass Oaks (Gr. I), where a 15^th-place finish put her behind Child Focus rivals Luzerne and Smell It. Her strong Smackdown performance came at the 9 furlong distance, and she has won at 9.5. She stretched to 11 in the Chestnut Stakes (Gr. I), where she finished fourth but never fired in her usual closing effort. With a fine pedigree and some nice showings, I consider Dehere Dabear a serious threat in this race. Her Smackdown performance is particularly impressive, and I think she may be able to do something similar here. Look for her to put in a strong closing effort, and as long as she turns on the jets (which she has failed to do one or two times), expect to see her coming on strong down the stretch.

PP11    Mind Eraser(ENG)               fastvett                                    A Rolling                    10/1

Dubai Destination-Alluring Charm, by Lure                          Northwest Racing Circuit

This NRC brown mare has one thing that stands out among much of her competition — a Grade One win. Mind Eraser took the Hypnotic Explosion Stakes two months ago, running a 107 and finishing ahead of Child Focus runners Annana and Smell It. That followed up a second-place finish in the listed A.P. Strawberry Stakes and preceded a fourth-place finish Players Club National Oaks (Gr. I), which saw Child Focus rival Cosimo finish first. Look for Mind Eraser to sit back and try to pass the leaders as they tire. I like her Grade One experience, despite the fact that the results have been mixed. She hit a 107 speed mark in her Hypnotic Explosion win, but has not hit triple digits at any other time. I don’t think the distance will be a problem for this runner, she will simply be up against herself and the other horses. Mind Eraser will definitely be a player in this race, and will look to top a couple of rivals who have gotten the better of her in past races. A second straight run at 10 furlongs may be just what she needs to hit her stride at the right moment.

PP12    Aptitudeforsuccess(KY)       westok                         K Youngblood                        35/1

Successful Appeal x Aptitude x Relaunch                             Great Plains

This scratchbred brown mare sports six wins for Red Dirt Runners and the Great Plains Residency, one of the better marks in the field. Aptitudeforsuccess was impressive from the get-go, breaking its maiden first time out and finishing in the money seven straight times, including a third-place finish in the Breeders Bowl and two listed stakes wins. Her success continued in the form of a listed win in the Mama Slew Memorial and victory in a 17600 allowance before finishing third in the Morris’s Storms Handicap. Aptitude has, however, been out of the money her last two times out, both allowance races. One of those can be ignored though, as her lone turf try resulted in a fourth-place result. So why is a mostly successful horse such a long-shot? Because of two simple strikes against her. First, she has no graded stakes experienced. The mare has run well in her listed runs, but has not tested herself against the big guns in the graded races. The other problem is that Aptitude has been a sprinter her entire career. She is the 55^th-ranked sprinter, but her last time out was the worst finish of her career, and that was a 9 furlong effort in which she finished dead last. She stalked just off the lead but faded quickly at the ¾-pole and never recovered. I think the distance of the Child Focus will be too much for her to handle, although she could be racy in the early goings and help push the pace.

PP13    Rome(ENG)                           kevoman2                    N Lawton                    29/1

Dubawi (IRE)-Eternal City(IRE), by Theatrical(IRE)           EAAA Racing

This brown mare will look to show off her Irish-heavy bloodlines for EAAA Racing here in the Child Focus, and is an interesting runner. The 55^th-ranked long distance horse in her division has more experience running this sort of distance than most of the runners in the field. However, there is no graded experience to speak of. Her best speed of 95 came in March in a 40500NW3L allowance that she won in fine fashion. In May Rome made her listed stakes debut and made it nicely, defeating a small field in the Nut Strutting Challenge, but doing so in dominant fashion. She has since gone on to runner-up spots in the Daring On The Bag Challenge and Door Behaving Challenge. Her inability to seal the deal the last two times out is worrisome, but she should be able to handle the distance as well as anyone in the field. I think she may be out-classed by some of the horses with graded experience, but should any of those horses falter as the rose approaches the 10 furlong finish, she should be there to swoop in with a closing effort.

PP14    Chalina(KY)                          dreamscity                   J White                        13/1

Forestry x Alleged x Nashua                                                  Hispano Parlante

This brown mare will represent the Latin racing community, making her appearance courtesy of Rafa Stables and the Hispano Parlante residency. This runner has done everything her trainer could possibly ask for, running in the money in 12 out of her 13 races while winning six. Chalina has shown a great amount of versatility, winning everything from a 4.5-furlong race her first time out to a mile-and-a-half earlier this summer. She has seven listed stakes runs to her name, and won two of her last three while not finishing out of the money this year. The 64^th-ranked router in her division, Chalina finally broke the 100 speed mark last time out in the Lisa Simpson Stakes. The main drawback here is the lack of graded experience. She is sure to find the going tougher this time out than in any of her past races, but I think she can be a challenger. She should have no trouble with the distance, where she seems to like either being on the lead or pushing the leader from the start. Untested at this top level, Chalina still may have what it takes to be a threat and possibly steal a win.

PP15    Luzerne(KY)                         malekfarms                  W McClendon                        9/2

Pulpit x Danzig x Buckpasser                                                 DelPenn

The chestnut daughter of Pulpit, Luzerne has shown up in Vermont the betting favorite, and looks to back that up while representing AFC Stables and the DelPenn residency. This runner has plenty of stakes experience and has run six graded races this year. Somewhat unimpressive to start that run, Luzerne is one of the hotter horses coming into the Child Focus. After finishing a less-than-desirable seventh in the Bluegrass Oaks (Gr. I), she headed to Ontario for the Denny Tario Oaks (Gr. II) and ran a 111, closing strongly to overtake Equinics rival Bathsheba II and win as the favorite. She came back a month later and put together a similar effort, topping a field of seven in the Alone That Baby Classic (Gr. I) with a speed of 107. She has topped the 100 speed mark in each of her last three races, seemingly picking up momentum. I look for Luzerne to hang back while others set the pace before closing and attacking the leaders. She is no sure thing, as she has finished out of the money in half of her Grade One runs, but she may be hitting her stride.

PP16    Prayer of Love(MD)             hidden                         S Youngblood             10/1

Not For Love x Awesome Again x Storm Cat                       Minnesota

Yet another runner sure to be in the mix is this brown mare out of the Minnesota residency’s PazJazz Music City Stables. Finding success early in her career in the State Tag Series, this horse settled into some successful allowance runs before getting her first stakes win going gate-to-wire in the listed Ambition Stakes in March. Prayer of Love then slid up to the Grade Three level with a poor showing in the MD Distaff, where she faded hard in the second half of the 9-furlong race. She returned a month later to again go gate-to-wire in victory in the listed Lottsa In A Record Handicap, and then nearly mirrored that performance last time out in another un-graded stakes, the Budget Breed Special. She went 10 furlongs there and broke the triple-digit speed barrier for the first time, but faded just before the finish and had to settle for the runner-up spot. She may be better equipped at the distance this time around, having already experienced a similar run. Whether she can maintain her speed the full distance will be very important. The jump in class may push her faster than she wants to go, and she may find it difficult to maintain speed. The worst showing of her career came in her one graded experience, so that is definitely a big question mark heading into this race. Closing is not her forte, so if she can’t hang with the field up front, it could spell bad things for Prayer of Love.

PP17    Hoosier Queen(KY)              buzzards                      O A Haack                  16/1

Smoke Glacken x Deputy Minister x Pleasant Colony           Kentucky Horsemen

Hoosier Empire and the Kentucky Horsemen residency send this intriguing runner to the Child Focus. At a glance, this light grey mare has put together a solid career with seven of her eight runs ending in the money. She is coming off a listed win in the Grey Dawn Stakes, where she ran a 100 and closed to barely edge out a victory. Hoosier Queen also has a graded win on her resume, going 8.5 furlongs in the Timber Stakes (Gr. III) for the top spot on an off track. Of concern, however, is her showing in the Denny Tario Oaks (Gr. II), where she finished eight against the stiffest field of her career, including runners she will face this time out — Luzerne and Bathsheba II. I think this field will also prove too much for Hoosier Queen to overcome, but a solid closing attempt might find her in the mix come the end of the race.

PP18    Shoalwater Bay(KY)                        thebandit                     D Hogin                      44/1

Kitten’s Joy x King Mambo x Seattle Slew                           Ohio

This light grey mare shows up as a long-shot for Bigkev and Bjbandit Farms and the Ohio residency. She has finished in the money 11 out of 12 trips to the track, and although much of her career has been spent on turf, her last three races were on the dirt and she showed no signs of slowing down. Shoalwater Bay is looking to continue her momentum coming off two straight victories. At the end of May she ran her highest career speed with a 91. Although she has put together a fine allowance career thus far, I’m not sure she is ready to take on this level of competition yet. With no stakes experience, let alone graded runs, it is clear why the bettors have stayed away. One thing going for her is her obvious ability to handle the distance, as she has run well all the way up her last time out at 13 furlongs. As a closer she always has a chance to strike if any of the frontrunners make a mistake, but I think she may be overpowered and have an empty gas tank when the time to close comes. She has just breached her dirt potential, though, and may have plenty to show in the future, especially as a long-distance runner.

So where does that put us? There is a considerable amount of speed in this race, which could favor a closer, especially if some of the long-shots push the pace from the start before inevitably fading. There is a good balance of experienced runners and others who have had some success at lower levels and are ready to test their potential at the top level.

Although there are a handful of horses that are probably out of their element, it is nearly impossible to pick a clear-cut winner out of this huge field of talented runners. I will, however, take a stab at it.

Although it could be dangerous, if Cosimo can avoid getting in a drag race I think he will hold on to win the Child Focus. I look for Luzerne to close well but just miss out and finish as the runner-up. My pick to round out the top three is Mind Eraser, and I think stakes newcomer Depudini will finish just outside the money. I look for Bathsheba II and Dehere Dabear to be the other major players as the field rounds the final turn and heads for home.

Enjoy the race!