A Lucky Flyer in California?
The Swamps Stakes see a very interesting field, being run over 9f on the fast dirt, the higher favourites have met each other recently in the Smackdown G1 over 8f, the Hollywood Night Classic or the Trial by Night Stakes, so there are a lot of cross references, which often may lead to conclusions about the strength, and then like usual we have those, where you ask yourself, why they ended up running in a Grade 1, but let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 CAT CHARM TED(JPN) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=107950
13 Races – 3 Wins – 153,180$
Cat Charm Ted hardly shows consitency, when winning the Grade 3 Hollywood Knights Classic, he looked like a Champion Horse, but last time out he ran a disappointing 9th in the Smackdown Grade 1. You can’t even blame it on the trip being 1f shorter, back in february a 3rd Place Stakes finish was followed by a in a Grade 3, he rebounded in April finishing 2nd in a Stakes race, to finish 5th 3 weeks later. The Hollywood Race was his best so far, so after winning a race named Hollywood, can he regain glory in California. Weel, I have no idea, the Silver Charm Colt could produce anything, from a winning run to a last place finish.
#2 WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149712
10 Races – 6 Wins – 549,580$
This Grade 1 Winner is one of 3 joint favourites, he ran 3rd in the Grade 1 Smackdown, after 2 off races in the Triple Crown. His Race Record looks great, with a 60% lifetime win pct. And a Grade 1 win in the Chicago Derby. He had high hopes entering the Bluegrass Derby at 9/1, but failed to produce a good run that day. The good performance in the Smackdown race shows he is on his way and the Smarty Jones colt should be a lock for a top 3 finish with high chances to win over his prefered distance of 9f.
#3 SISSON’S ALLEY(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133958
12 Races – 4 Wins – 262,360$
After winning the Texas Derby in April connections saw a great horse, however a try at longer distances in a New Yorker Prep failed, and the horse was sent on a recovery mission in 2 ALW races, he finished 4th and 2nd, not really what you expect from a Grade 1 horse. He will find it tough in todays field, and needs to reproduce better results, judging from his last 3 runs he will stand no chance.
#4 LUCKY’S CARPET(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144968
12 Races – 4 Wins – 379,630$
Following a close 2nd place finish to Cat Charm Ted in the Hollywood Knight Classic, he produced a great 110 speed in a win in the Grade 3 Hoover Handicap. The bookies credit that by making him joint favourite, and expecting him to reverse form with the Japanese Horse.
He seems to be back at the level he already ran in March, when 2nd in the All Saints Derby, and the flop in the Florida Derby seems forgotten. My clear win pick, if he can keep the level he demonstrated last time out. The Kingmambo Colt can cleary dominate this race, if he can demonstrate his closing kick on the stretch.
#5 HELD TWO RANSOM(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142163
16 Races – 5 Wins – 322,374$
The 3rd Joint Favourite is another on and off horse, clearly with the most experience of the 3, he ran a good 5th in the Grade 1 Smackdown, but produced a lifetime best speed of 106. So not only looks to reverse form with Wireless Eavesdrop, but also wanting to go back at winning days, like he had the 2 races before including the Grade 2 Trial by Night Stakes.
The War Front Colt finished 3rd in the Chicago Derby, and 9th in the Road to the New Yorker, crossing paths with horse he meets again, before coming to live in Norway, winning the Grade 2. Look for him to finish just outside of the Top 3, as I see others have more potential.
#6 ITS OUT(PA) 48/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=154817
10 Races – 5 Wins – 153,347$
A win pct. Of 50% looks great at first sight, but a lifetime high speed mark of 92, looks way beyond average in a Grade 1, should have sticked to Restricted Stakes, where he found the winners circle twice in his last 3 races, the 6th place in an ALW in between showed his real class, by far not enough for Grade 1 Racing.
#7 GENERALLY GOOD(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=79283
14 Races – 6 Wins – 248,450$
The Good Reward Colt shows a nice ascending form over his last races, however 4 Top 3 finishes including 2 wins in Stakes company may not be enough against the Top Horses he faces today, but perhaps he can rise to the occasion. Ran a 101 for the first time last time out, but will need to top that by about 6 to get a chance here in the Swamp Stakes, I doubt that,
#8 WEXFORD NIPPER(KY) 19/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138151
13 Races – 4 Wins – 85,081$
A nice ALW horse, who has yet to find his best distance and ran out of ALW conditions. Showed a lifetime high 103 last time, but only finished 2nd in a 8.5f ALW Race, no idea, how he can be stepped up here, could be a nice Stakes horse, but a Grade 1 is way above his head.
#9 TELESIO(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135025
13 Races – 5 Wins – 172,820$
The Bernadini Colt has been struggling in Stakes Company recently, but rebounded nicely by winning a 9f ALW with a 102 last time out. He faced Wireless Eavesdrop and Held to Ransom in the Chicago Derby, finishing 5th that day. Need to produce a lifetime high to stand any chance, so I doubt we’ll see him in the Top 3. But he has the experience in Graded Company and comes in with a win.
#10 GHOST IN A DANCER(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=5084
14 Races – 4 Wins – 1,098,220$
The Ghostzapper Colt is the only Millionaire in todays field, a main portion from a 3rd place finish in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. His 3 yo campaign was an up and down struggle, he ran a nice 2nd in the Wooden Indian, which made his owner move him to the Bluegrass Derby, where he failed to connect and finished 13th. Last time out he ran a lifeless 100 in a 5th place finish in the Trial by Night Stakes won by Held Two Ransom. Has yet to win a race as a 3yo, and I’d be surprised if it happened this weekend. A classy 2yo, thats likely running over his head again.
#11 FLYING BRYAN(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=32508
10 Races – 5 Wins – 345,227$
The opposite can be said of Flying Brian, he already has 3 wins and 4 100+ speed marks as a 3yo. He came to live, when scoring the Grade 2 fedirico Stakes, followed by a win in the Captain Hook. Afterwards he tackled Grade 1 races, with mixed results so far, finishing 8th in the Princess Cup and 4th in the Grade 1 Smackdown, I’d put him on the same level as Wireless Eavesdrop. Pick the Royal Academy Colt to finish in the Top 3, his return to 9f might see him even win this race.
#12 EL PASO CONNECTION(FL) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142920
9 Races – 3 Wins – 267,411$
The Macho Uno Colt began his racing career in the later stages of the 2yo season, and took some time to be succesful, being lightly races seems an advantage, and a lot of potential may be in him. He showed class, when winning the Grade 2 Heatless Stakes back in April. However a try at 10f proofed unsuccesful, when he finished 12th in the Princess Cup.
He has to regain his April form, and likely even get better to be in the Top 3 here, which I don’t see him do, maybe a Top 5 finish is possible.
#13 BIRDCAGE(KY) 19/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143833
8 Races – 3 Wins – 154,750$
Always in the Top 3 in his career so far, it still may be a step too high for the Gilded Time Colt. Won his first Stakes Race last time out in Dubai, so a long flight to California may put another question mark behind him. With lots of horses having cracked the 105 mark in their career he is just outside of this class, needs a super finish to win.
Ok, a great race with lots of crossovers and stories in it, I’m picking Lucky’s Carpet ahead of Flying Brian and Wireless Eavesdrop, but hey, don’t nail me, if you loose the Trifecta.