Better ‘Watch’ Out, Cups, They’re Speeding Down The Fast Lane

“Life in the fast lane/Surely makes you lose your mind.” –The Eagles, “Life In The Fast Lane”, 1977.

This being summer, and summer being time to take on two-year-olds of all kinds, it’s time for some of the early winners to be thinking about future potential. More or less, if you have a two-year-old who can win a MSW in the first six months of a year, your options are limited: you either look for allowances, aim for stakes races, or try and steal something in the graded ranks. Some horses will have the ability to step up and run with the bluebloods who got their first victory out of the way en route to a successful career. But it’s all a gamble.

The early season graded races for juveniles do not often come up with harsh fields or winners who stay the course. Not often, anyway. But there are always exceptions. In eight runnings of this week’s Iowa feature, the $125,000 Grade III Fast Lane Stakes, it’s produced a couple of names a veteran of the Sim might recall.  Nob Hill won here in 2005 and then proceeded to win the Grade I GSR Diamond.  2004 winner Given Me Reasons lists this as her only graded win, but she was second last September in the inaugural restricted World Cup Ladies Long Turf Sprint.  And last year’s champ Flowerats used this initial graded states win to propel her into the upper echelon of turf fillies by winning her first five starts, including the World Cup Juvenile Filly Turf Mile.  So it can be done, presumably without losing one’s mind.

This year’s field came up a bit light, as some of the stars of tomorrow decided to pass on this one today.  A compact field of five is going to give it a go here, and they are led by Cups, ranked seventeenth in the turf sprint division for juvenile fillies after a mere three outings.  She looms rather large in this spot, but she by no means has it sewn up, with the super confederation of stables thinking enough of a light spot to send one of their up-and-comers, Rolex.

It’s a brief field brimming with potential, and they have to be to threaten the standards for the Fast Lane, which were established by Nob Hill in 2005.  She holds the stakes record of 1:17 2/5, and she shares the high-water mark for speed figures with 2003 winner Lady Hawk (1:17 3/5); both fillies share the top speed figure with an 86.  This year’s field consists of:

Haack Factor [Speightstown-Princess Haack, by Danzig, trained by castillete for Otto Haack (Venezuela)] has some solid connections, who win at a 14.4% clip in this barn.  And no doubt she’s been schooled in the art of the turf by graded-placed runner Dandior, her stablemate.  So this barn knows its way around a turf horse, and senses potential in the pedigree.  Her dam has a classy pedigree, and that one was a stakes-placed filly before she broke her maiden.  This one already won her debut last out, winning from off the pace with a speed figure of 69.  This marks her second outing, but the pedigree has a history of early success on the grass: both of her half-siblings won within a race or two of their respective grass debuts.  If she’s up close to the lead in here, it might very well be a fine spot from which to start, as there’s not much, on paper, that indicates a hefty speed duel or a swift early turn of foot standing out.  The sire might be the only thing holding this filly back, because at no point in Speightstown’s four crops has his progeny taken a uniform hold of the turf as a specialty.  The speed figures may require a solid progression forward, but there’s nothing to suggest she can’t handle a steep climb in class.

Combat Nurse [Medicis x Manzotti, trained by aevon45 for Aigf714 Stables] is unbeaten and a listed stakes winner in just two starts.  That’s got to be excellent news for her connections, looking to the future with a 10.2% win percentage in this barn.  She may be the closest thing on paper to the natural speed in this field, with both her wins coming from a stalker’s role, sitting second no more than a length and a half from the pace.  No one else has shown much of an interest in their brief careers in being a pace dictator.  She proved herself as the real deal with a 62-1 debut win, then captured a New Hampshire stakes at just 17-1…and then the morning line comes out here, and because the speed figures still have a ways to go to advance into a favorite’s role in a race such as this, they’re still at 13-1, fourth choice in the wagering.  I don’t think the oddsmakers are necessarily wrong, but it does provide value for a filly who has performed everything asked of her with a certain style and flair.  And among her vanquished opposition to date is Twice Upon A Time, third in the Grade I Fauster last out.  She’s knocking heads with some fillies that have some quality to them, and has outrun her breeding and odds twice now.  She’ll need to dictate things at the front end and see a certain rise in the speed figures to get to 3-for-3, but as the “girl most likely to”, she’s got a lot to do to maintain a lead in the stretch.

Cups [Bernardini-Father Capote, by Deputy Minister, trained by yesguy for Yesguy Stables] has, at four outings, the most career starts in the field.  And that experience has allowed her a golden opportunity at 8/5 to steal some much needed stakes points.  The pedigree suggest there’s even better days ahead for her, as the “dam” was a ten-time route winner on the turf.  When this one stretches out, she should be a pretty fearsome foe, although her “dam” blossomed at 3.  Right now, though, she’s doing just fine, and with her top speed figure last out of 82 being the best in this field by 11 points, she does tower over them here.  She is about as much of a deep closer that a juvenile at this stage could be, closing from just over six lengths in each of her last two starts, and those performances earned her a stakes win and a second.  Theoretically she outclasses this bunch, but there’s a reason why they don’t run these things on paper.  And her Achilles heel might be that she’s a filly bred to go longer and improve with age, going up against a couple of other fillies who are better bred for this distance, including the next one.

Rolex [Ghostzapper-Nexis Of The Crisis, by Kingmambo, trained by super1 for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is the entrant from one of the Sim’s most well-known grouping, and they generally breed well, and pick their spots with great care.  She won her debut in a restricted DelPenn MSW with good care, hanging close to the front before closing late for just enough momentum to get her nose on the wire first.  She followed a five-furlong maiden win with a five and a half-furlong stakes win in Ontario, getting an easy two-length win from off the pace.  The speed figure for the debut was a 71, but the stakes win against four others backslid slightly, perhaps because the filly was doing just enough to get the job done versus a small field.  Her “dam” was better later stretching out to a mile, not unlike Cups‘ mother figure.  Rolex has a pedigree, though, that seems to tilt towards early success and more speed than stamina, and it would not be surprising to see this one elevate her game to a more suitable one for graded opposition, even in another compact field.  She has to prove she belongs versus another filly who may already be well on the road for future stakes action.  For perhaps the first time, she gets a high-level target.  I expect a good deal of improvement, but she’s going to have to show more coming from just off the pace chasing that early speed.  Tactically, she has to assert her own control in a wide open affair.

Year Of The Cub [Bowman’s Band x Royal And Regal, trained by horseshack for Fortune500]…isn’t it always, though?  Anyway, her connections take great advantage of a bargain pedigree with this one, and it’s tough to say whether it was a fluke or just part of an unexpected breakthrough.  She won from mid-pack in her debut, which was a $15,000 maiden claimer just three weeks ago, but the debuting speed figure was not exactly one that would make a statement in a graded race; a 61 might hold some potential in March, but by July that’s a common figure for winners at that level.  The pedigree’s statistics on this surface are inconclusive.  Bowman’s Band’s first two crops have 20 winners from 39 starters, but about 27.5% of his money earners on grass, very roughly speaking.  His last two crops, considerably smaller, have four winners from 18 runners, but one stakes winner, on grass, and the money earners are over 70%.  Royal And Regal’s stats are similarly skewed in the last three years, so who knows, really.  She’ll need to significantly improve her speed figures here to get some black type, but she’s guaranteed a check due to the small field, plus in any event it’s quite possible that she could get much better on the dirt.  She’s an enigma, but my tendency is to err, at my peril, on the side of caution.

It’s a field short on direction, but long on possibilities.  The idea might be to hope that a rivalry may be born, between Rolex and Cups.  I give Cups the nod based on experience, but a big run from Rolex might turn the tide in her favor.  Cups on top, with Rolex second, and Combat Nurse may have just enough left in the tank for third.  Regardless, good luck to all.