Smokey Empire?
The New York Track this week has taken a lot of rain, and this yielding turf looks no fun for those fine fillies and mares. The Field is a little weak, as no major winners have been attracted by the 250.000$ purse. However a few selected Graded and Stakes winners can be found in the field of 13, with the off-track, we should not only watch the fast speed numbers, but also the off-track experience and results. 10f on the yielding turf in a Grade 2 is the call for this 15th race in New York this Saturday, so, let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 SMOKEY THEATRE(IRE) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=114350
21 Races – 9 Wins – 485,643$ Off: 4 Races – 3 Wins – 117,480$
This Theatrical filly can be called an off-track specialist, in 4 tries, her worst finish was a 2nd, she won a 9.5f stakes race on good turf in May, her recent race saw her finish a disappointing 7th in a Grade 1 over 12f, so a step down in distance and class comes at the rigth time. She won 3 Stakes races this season, with a nice win in a Grade 3 to open the season at Italy back in january. She has run 100+ numbers on off-tracks, so the rain should be no problem to her. In my mind a horse to be on your betting card.
#2 PUBLIK ENEMY 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=93888
35 Races – 13 Wins – 914,080$ Off: 1 Race – 0 Wins – 0$
This is one of the Mares not really looking for rain, her last time out, she ran her 1st race on yielding turf, and finished a dismal 7th in a 11f Grade 3 Race. She has the class to compete here, which she showed, when winning a Grade 2 in Australia 2 Races back. 10f is her favourite distance and she has won a few stakes races over 10f in her career, however, the off-track may be the end to her chances. Would be a race favourite in firm conditions, but I don’t see her reverse form from her last time out.
#3 BLUE FOX(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138354
16 Races – 5 Wins – 133,588$ Off: 2 Races – 2 Wins – 22,380$
Blue Fox is very lightly raced, and after running herself out of ALW conditions earlier this season, she stepped up to Stakes races, so far mainly struggling, finishing 3rd in South Korea in an ungraded Stakes Race last time out. Ran 5th in a comparable Grade 2 in North California back in April. Will have to show more of her class today, the rain may come in her favour, however, those 2 off-track races have been on dirt, she was switched to turf just at the start of 2008, and has responded by better speed numbers, but has yet to win a stakes race.
#4 BEATBOXER 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=66531
22 Races – 8 Wins – 225,075$ Off : 1 Race – 1 Win – 9,180$
The lightly raced 5 yr old, has to overcome a disappointing run last time out, however the 8th place in the Grade 1 can be blamed on the 12f distance, which she had stayed before, but looked too long that day. The step back to 10f should inspire her, as she already won 2 Stakes races over 10f earlier this year. Her only off-track experience came back in June 07, when she won a 14f ALW Race, so nothing you can transfer here. May find the field a tap too strong, but could land a surprise.
#5 PRESSURE DROP(IRE) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=97862
36 Races – 9 Wins – 393,890$ Off : 3 Races – 0 Wins – 4,980$
There are lots of question marks behind the race favourite, and those may lead me to the question, why the bookies like her. She ran a nice 108 last time out over 9f on a firm course in a Stakes Race. So you may say great, well, let’s look at the downside, she’s never run 10f, her longest trip so far have been 9.5f, and she didn’t look good that day. She has yet to win a Graded Race, a 3rd in 06 in a Grade 3 her best at Graded Racing. And the biggest question, how will she handle the off-track, in 3 yielding races she never topped 100, and never finished better than 3rd. From my view, too much to overcome, stay off backing her, she may not be worth as much as the bookies give her.
#6 BARB’S POWER(GB) 24/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132113
15 Races – 5 Wins – 179,670$ Off: 1 Race – 0 Wins – 2,800$
Sorry, but this unexperienced 4yo has no chance here. It’s her first route race, her only stakes win came at 6.5f in September 07, and she has yet to crack 100. All three things lead to an easy conclusion, the 24/1 are still nice odds for the filly.
#7 ROUGH AND RAHY 21/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=110909
23 Races – 8 Wins – 205,117$ Off: 2 Races – 1 Win – 24,515$
It’s just her 5th turf race, and so far she has shown no indication she’s any good at it, winning 12f and 16f ALWs hardly qualify you to take on a Grade 2 field at 10f. Her best race in her career came at 10f over a fast dirt course, when she ran a 107 winning an ungraded stakes race at Iowa. Connections should stop the turf experiment, and build her back up for such races. May have a surprise factor with the yielding course, as she liked dirt off-tracks, but tough to draw a conclusion from that.
#8 GIMME X 19/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=122148
25 Races – 6 Wins – 132,245$ Off: 6 Races – 3 Wins – 64,480$
With half of his winnings coming on off-tracks, this outside shot is counting on the yielding turf to be in her favour, had no chance in 2 10f races last time out, but finished 2nd in a 10f ALW on yielding turf back in April, plus 2 of her best speed numbers have come on off-track turf courses. Still a 100 should be far away from winning, needs her best race and her yielding specialties together to produce a wonder.
#9 DRAGON AWAKENS(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=128553
20 Races – 7 Wins – 352,780$ Off: 1 Race – 0 Wins – 75,000$
Well, this horse would look like a 25/1 sot, if not for one race in April. Ahe won a 9f Stakes race producing a 108, however has to confirm that, because the break out was followed by 2 rather average races, Finishing 6th in both her last races. So the step up in class is hard to explain, and another horse shows question marks. Her only off-track race was a 2nd in the Rippleschip Stakes back in 07, a 12f Grade 2 Race. Will need to reproduce a great run, and see how she handles the yielding turf.
#10 CRAFTY GROOMER(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=85918
20 Races – 7 Wins – 205,503$ Off: 0 Races
This 4yo slow developer really got going in 08, she has already 3 Stakes wins this season, so the step up in class comes at the right time, however, her best speed so far is a 104, last time out over 10.5f, so the 10f may be a tip short, and the biggest quest, she hasn’t run on an off-track. Would need to take a huge step on a firm course, but the off-track may either ruin her chances, or she may just excel at it, let’s wait and see, tough to make a prediction here.
#11 JENA BERLIN(JPN) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132272
20 Races – 9 Wins – 278,076$ Off: 1 Race – 1 Win – 18,240$
A huge step in class and a hard to explain step back in distance souround this 4yo stayer. Running mainly in longer ALW or Ungraded Stakes Races so far, her recent good results at 11f seem to have encouraged her owner to try this Grade 2 10f race, and because of that it will be tough to predict her result. She came into her own, when put into 14 and 12f races early in her career, but took a step down to 11f recently well, the 10f may just proof her distance. Won her only race on yielding turf, but that was at 11f as a 3yo, so no real hint to her off-track ability.
#12 FIVE CIRCLES 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=88769
50 Races – 14 Wins – 411, 222 Off: 20 Races – 9 Wins – 312, 527$
This 6yo travels around the globe, looking for off-tracks, winning 9 of his 20 Races on them. In May she won a Stakes race in Arizona over 8f, a typical race in her career, which was mainly average and saw her dumped into low ALW races until in June 06. She won a 7f ALW on yielding turf, since then her owner looks mainly at weather forecasts, and travels her whereever the rain comes down. Has yet to win a Graded Race, but this may be her day, looks far away on speed numbers, but is the real yielding specialist you look for on a day like this.
#13 LAPHROAIG 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=108780
28 Races – 7 Wins – 810,817$ Off: 2 Races – 0 Wins – 23,750$
Has been struggling as a 5yo and still has to hit the winners circle in 08. Won the Grade 1 Flower Pot Stakes here in new York back in October 07. Since then she started struggling and was run in strange races over longer distances. Wants to proof she’s a champion filly and looks to come back to her own on her favourite track. But the ground is against her, couldn’t stay in her 2 races on good turf, and more rain in this yielding enviroment may be a huge task against her.
Overall a more average field for a Grade 2 Race, but the yielding turf makes it even tougher to predict, I’ll pick #1 Smokey Theatre, look for veteran off-track mare Five Circles, plus as an outside shot I take Jena Berlin.