Fillies Day in New York
The Players Club National Oaks, a race run at a classic distance should bring out a classic field, and despite only 10 fillies made their way to New York, we still have some top fillies of the dirt router division. The trouble will be, it has been raining for days over here, and we have a sloppy track, so it will be interesting to take an in-depth look at the off-track records.
#1 MIND ERASER(ENG) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144460
14 Races – 3 Wins – 367,748$ Off: 4 Races – 1 Win 29,159$
Mind Eraser took the step to Grade 1 Level in her last race, after a couple of 2nd places in Stakes company, she ran her career best race in the Grade 1 Hypnotic Explosion Classic, a 107 speed topped her previous best by 11. Before that race I wouldn’t have given her Grade 1 Quality, but now she looks in the rigth company. There is a lot of reason to believe she can get a useful performance today. She won a ALW on sloppy dirt back in December 07 as a 2yo, it has to be seen if she can repeat her explosion from North Carolina however today at New York.
#2 TALE OF PEACE(KY) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=150671
6 Races – 2 Wins – 51,736$ Off: 4 Races – 2 Wins – 51,736$
With all her winnings on off-tracks, this horse is a rain specialist, connections put her in after performing a rain dance in front of the Statue of Liberty and it worked. She won an Ungraded Stakes race back in April over 8f on a sloppy track at West Virginia, but she has yet to proof she can stay 10f.
Being a sloppy specialist may not be enough to win a Grade 1, but you have to respect it, and give a thumps up for taking the chance.
#3 COSIMO(ENG) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133937
14 Races – 7 Wins – 483,747$ Off: 1 Race – 1 Win – 36,000$
Her career highlight so far came last time out here in New York winning the 3rd leg of the Triple Tiara the Chestnut Stakes, she comes back to the place of this wonderful moment as the race favourite. She has never run on a sloppy track, but won a Stakes race at a good track back in May. She has shown she can stay 11f, so the 10f today should be no problem to her. I guess there is no doubt she should win the race on a fast track, but with the sloppy going, it has to be seen how she can handle the surface.
#4 UNREAL WOLF(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=154297
10 Races – 2 Wins – 57,530$ Off: 0 Races
The Stephen Got Even filly really doesn’t fit into the race, a huge step in class, no speed number of 100+, no run over more than 9f, and 0 races at an off-track, so what can we expect, I tend to say nothing, well, if someone finds a reason to support the filly, let me know, until then I can not give a reason to back her.
#5 ANNANA(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149281
7 Races – 3 Wins – 165,700$ Off: 0 Races
Ships in from the Grade 1 at North carolina, where she was beaten solid by Mind Eraser and Wall of Salt, finishing a useful 4th. But she was fading at the end loosing ground to the winner. She has no off-track experience, so we can expect everything from a flop to a career high best race. She looks weaker than Mind eraser, and I don’t see her reverse form today. Just an outside shot, if she can handle the sloppy track.
#6 GRAUPOINT(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144192
14 Races – 5 Wins – 157,700$ Off: 1 Race – 1 Win – 19,080$
The Point Given filly won her 1st race on a sloppy dirt course, running a solid 70 over 6f in her 2yo debut. Since then she has had her ups and downs, after winning a 12f Stakes Race in may ran a disappointing 7th in the Grade 3 Vogue Handicap, it looks 10f is just too short for her, looked much better going 12f, it has to be seen how her maiden win can translate here. At least she brings a 100% surface record into the race. Could provide a small upset, but I see her finishing just outside the Top 3.
#7 PRADO’S BALLADO(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=53977
12 Races – 6 Wins – 344,950$ Off: 0 Races
Finished a distanced 2nd to Cosimo in the Chestnut Stakes, just like Cosimo she comes back to one of her favourite tracks, however she not only has a race 1 furlong shorter this time, which i think will not be to her advantage, but also is facing an off-track for the first time in her career, the question is, “will she like it or not?”. The answer to that can only the race bring, I think she may be in the battle for 2nd, but might be better off in 11-12f races, as she really closed a lot of ground towards the end in the Chestnut Stakes.
#8 MAMBO ON THE MOON(SAF) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143361
16 Races – 6 Wins – 257,024$ Off: 0 Races
If experience counted, her 16 races would be good enough fir 1st, if it was a name contest, give it to her by 5 lengths, but well, it is a horse race, and as it is a 10f race on a sloppy dirt track, I don’t see her in the top 5. No Off-Track experience, her only 10f race she won handily, but faded in the end, winning by only 2 lengths and a mediocare 74 speed number. She already has won 2 Stakes Races this year, and runs about every 3 weeks, so she is on schedule, but too many question marks.
#9 WORLD AMBITION(AUS) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=97328
11 Races – 5 Wins – 112,420$ Off: 2 Races – 0 Wins – 10,800$
Taking a step back in distance is the rigth thing to do for the filly, but I also would have taken a huge step down in class, looked well overmatched in the Chestnut Stakes finishing 12th. Tried to get back on track in a stakes race in iowa, but finsihed 5th and last, despite being odds-on favourite. The 10f race on the sloppy dirt hardly makes sense, her off-track record is awful, and I can’t see her reverse form with any of the Chestnut Horses, may come in last.
#10 WALL OF SALT(AUS) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145651
9 Races – 3 Wins – 513,325$ Off: 0 Races
A horse I really like in this field, she is lightly raced, and may have her come out explosion party soon, ran a nice 2nd to Mind Eraser last time out, after winning the GR Simsters Kenntucky Oaks, the half furlong longer trip may suit her. The big question mark is the sloppy track, she has never run on it, and it has to be seen, how she can handle it. I like her finishing in the Top 3, but on such a surface you never know.
As you can see in my horse reviews, it’s very tough to predict the race with the ground like it is, on a fast dirt I’d pick Cosimo ahead of Wall of Salts, but with the sloppy track, I really like Graupoint, and Tale of Peace for an upset, Mind Eraser shouldn’t be counted out, but after all, i still go with Cosimo to win it, she has won on a good surface, i believe she can overcome the sloppy track and make it a Chestnut Stakes Players Club National Oaks Double.