Irish 2000 Guineas Preview

As the exciting month of May rolls along, the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday boasts a full field of fourteen 3-year-old colts and geldings, nine of which have already won in graded stakes company. The race will be run at 8 furlongs on the firm turf course. Let’s take a closer look at the field:

(1) TICKET TO PLUTO (owner bestobene5, 26/1) will go off as the longest shot on the board from the rail. The 3-year-old colt by Australian sire Pierata had a 2-year-old season to remember with a Group II victory and two runner-up efforts in graded stakes races. His 3-year-old campaign has not been as solid, especially last time out, when he finished last in a field of eleven. That was over a softer turf course, so he may like the firmer going here, but he hasn’t shown he’s taken that step forward this year, which he’ll need to compete with this group. He’s also stretching out in distance, but I’m not sure that will help enough in this spot.

(2) OSAKA MGM (owner bizalls11, 8/1) has had a nice start to his 3-year-old season, starting with an open-length victory in a listed stakes race back in February. In the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial back in March, he finished fifth. The winner of that race just won the French 2000 Guineas, so that was a solid race he is coming out of. This seems to be a good distance for him, and the triple-digit SP numbers in both starts this year show he is progressing nicely.

(3) GOLDEN SPEEDWAY (owner astapor, 6/1) is the most decorated horse in this race, finishing no worse than second in four Group I starts which includes two victories. He has won both starts this year, including last time out in the G1 Pave it Smooth back in March. Both starts have been at 7 furlongs, but he did finish a solid second in The Futurity over in Japan back in December. He’s definitely had his best races at 7 furlongs, but certainly seems to be bred to go longer, so this seems like a good spot. He’s clearly among the top contenders in here.

(4) WOETTE’S DNA (owner urko1, 20/1) is stretching out to a mile for the first time in his short career. He is a graded stakes winner, getting to the winner’s circle in the Group III Aaron Burr in Deauville back in September. He does have a listed stakes victory in January, but his other two starts since that graded win resulted in off-the-board finishes. He’s progressing nicely, but has not had much success at this level and I’m not sure the stretch out will help enough here.

(5) ANGEL SPIRIT (owner jwest4, 6/1) is one of the favorites despite being one of the few that hasn’t won a graded stakes in this field. The reason for the favortism is definitely his starts this year. After a solid win in an allowance back in January, he finished a very solid second in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial. As I talked about earlier, the winner of that race just won the French 2000 Guineas, so that was a really good second. Despite not being able to finish the job in other graded stakes races in the past, I like his chances to get to the winner’s circle here.

(6) TROJAWI (owner 1strule, 9/1) is another G1 winner in this talented field, having won the Grade I Vermont is 4 Lovers in February with a 109 SP number, which is tops in this field. After the trip overseas to Japan, he faded in the Japanese 2000 Guineas last month. That was definitely a surprising effort given the previous race, but came during a stretchout. The cutback in distance should help here and get him closer to what we saw back in February. Definitely one of the bigger wildcards in this race.

(7) BONE F KENNEDY (owner ksparrow5, 13/1) actually started off his career with an open-length win in an 8-furlong allowance race, but has been sprinting ever since. He’s fairly green when it comes to stakes company, as he was in allowance races up until his last race, when he finished a close fifth in the Group III Tetris Stakes over this Irish turf course. While it’s going to take a more solid effort to get the job done in this spot, the stretchout to a mile should help here, and he’s a horse I would consider throwing into some vertical wagers at a decent price.

(8) UNITED JAPAN (owner amir1658, 23/1) comes into this race off a win in a listed stakes race last month in New Zealand. The South African-bred gelding by The United States will be stretching out pretty significantly in this race, as he has never gone more than 6 furlongs. Most of his success was last year in his 2-year-old season, winning the Group III Mother Lois and finishing third in the Group I Nonethorpe. Since then, he’s missed the board in a few starts before the win last time out. He just hasn’t made the leap in performance that others have in this race, so this will be a tough task for him.

(9) SUPER RUNNER (owner 112away, 11/1) is one of the more lightly-raced horses in this field and has been very successful, winning 5 out of 6 career starts. He is coming off a really nice win in the Group III Green Ham Stakes over in Surrey last time out, putting up an SP of 107. He continues to stretch out into this race, as this will be his first route race. This New Zealand-bred son of Super Seth may not be able to handle a ton of distance, but I think he should be able to handle 8 furlongs. He’s a player in this field.

(10) STREETS OF COMPTON (owner slowrollelite4, 16/1) is another G1 winner in this field, winning the High Flyer Stakes back in October. He has struggled to recapture that success since then, finishing tenth and fourteenth in his two subsequent starts. After going down to the ungraded stakes ranks last time out and cutting back in distance, he did finish a more solid third against lesser competition. I think this is the right distance for him, but I just think this will prove to be too big of a spot for this colt.

(11) LOCK DOWN LARRY (owner given28, 10/1) has had his ups and downs so far this season. He has finished well off the pace in both graded stakes starts, but threw in a nice performance in between those races. That performance was a 2-length victory in a listed stakes race back in February, where he put up an SP of 106. He just never found his stride in the Japanese 2000 Guineas last time out. He cuts back in distance today, which I think will help. Still, he’s going to have to find another gear based on his recent graded stakes performance.

(12) SURVIVINGTHETYRANT (owner given23, 6/1) is another one out of the given barn, and this colt is really coming into this race hot. After switching from turf to dirt in his 2-year-old campaign, he switched back to turf this year and has hit a whole other gear, racking up three wins in a row, including last time out in the Grade III Dracula Stakes in Kentucky. He comes back overseas, where he has some success earlier in his career. While this will be his first start above the G3 level, he is as hot as any horse in this race.

(13) EL AMERICAINO (owner erasure, 13/1) is taking a massive step up in class following two open-length allowance victories to start the year. He did finish 2022 with a pair of starts in listed stakes races, but couldn’t hit the board in either start. The allowance races this season are impressive, especially the most-recent start with an SP of 107. Even so, this will be a far tougher task in this spot. While he very well could contend for the minor awards, I think it will be a difficult ask for this colt to get the win here.

(14) STILL D R E (owner beerkeg, 5/1) will go off as the favorite in this race, having put together some solid graded stakes starts of late. After a win at this distance in the Group II Golden Rose back in February, he faded late in the Japanese 2000 Guineas last month. That was a pretty sizable stretchout for this gelding, and I think the cutback in distance is a good move here. He lives on the lead, and there isn’t a ton of early speed in this race, so if he can make an easy early lead and steal some slow fractions, it’s easy to see how he could come away with a victory.

My Picks:
Unlike my Humane Distaff picks last week, I went a little chalkier this time around…

(5) ANGEL SPIRIT, 6/1 – Despite being one of the five who hasn’t won a graded stakes yet, his two races this year are very impressive. The second-place effort last time out was to a horse that just won a G1. Looks strong.

(12) SURVIVINGTHE TYRANT, 6/1 – Really well-bred horse that has hit a new gear since switching back to turf this year. If he continues progressing, could easily make it 4 for 4 on the year.

(14) STILL D R E, 5/1 – I do think the cutback in distance should help after failing last time out at 10 furlongs. The key will be if anyone challenges him for the lead. If no one does, he’ll end up contending for the win.

(3) GOLDEN SPEEDWAY, 6/1 – The class of the field, in my opinion. I suspect 7 furlongs is his best distance, but he will likely still be involved.

(9) SUPER RUNNER, 11/1 – Lightly raced, but really has been coming into form nicely of late. I’m not sure if stretching out will help him, but if he puts in a similar effort to last time out, he’ll make some noise.