Bluegrass Oaks heroine Sabbath Point vs Black Flag Flying, more in Delaware Smackdown Showdown
Smackdown Showdown for the Sophomore Fillies Four of division’s top 10 to square off in 3 yo filly dirt route Smackdown comes full circle this year, with DelPenn making an appearance at the big party for the first time in three years. One of the most anticipated races of the day will feature the three year old fillies going a mile and an eighth on Delaware’s one mile dirt oval. Top ranked Sabbath Point and the #2 filly in the division Black Flag Flying square off for the fourth consecutive time here, and Rattyburg plus Equivocations equals a sensational race. Toss in some real up and comers, and who needs a Grade 1 race? It’s right here. The field oozes class. PP1 SABBATH POINT (DelPenn) 5-1 Winner of the Bluegrass Oaks and Black Middle Flower Stakes looks to rebound from an horrific performance in the Chestnut Stakes. A shot at Sim glory turned into a nightmare that day, and I admit that I have yet to even watch that race. Just hearing the result was enough to turn my stomach. Was it the distance? The grueling spring schedule? Tossed shoe? No Winstrol? I haven’t a clue. All I know was it was a disaster. Filly has been a beast at nine furlongs, but I honestly don’t know if she’ll rebound here. Usually runs best on short rest, and she’s been off a full month now. Furthermore, I’m giving H. Ross full control in this race. Previously, my distrust of jockeys led to doling out specific instructions. Not here. Ross knows this oval better than anyone, so it’s his choice as to where to place her in the early stages. Suffice to say, if he drops way out of it, or chooses to duel for the early lead, I’ll be waiting at the finish line- with an axe. PP2 VINSPECTOR GADGET (GR Simsters) 15-1 Blew up big time LTO after playing bridesmaid or punching bag for quite a while. She unleashed a furious late charge to kick some ass in the Kickass Memorial, posting (by far) a lifetime best 105 figure. That’s within three lengths of the best horses in this field, and if she can duplicate that effort, she’ll be a huge factor. The big question I have here is that I’ve seen with my own far, far too many times to remember a gigantic effort followed by a quick plummet back to the former level of mediocrity. Does that happen to the Gadget? Or is she blossoming into a force? This is a great spot to find out. PP3 GRANDSTAND DELIGHT (DelPenn) 9-1 A bit of a vexing animal, this one. Qualified for the Bluegrass Oaks on the force of a tremendous win in the G3 Jockey Guild Stakes. She then finished a respectable sixth in the Bluegrass Oaks, finishing faster than anyone in the field. Closed like a bullet again in the Black Middle Flower after dropping a hopelessly too far 17 lengths out to nab fifth. By Rock Hard Ten, she looked like THE one heading to the 11 furlong Chestnut, right? Wrong. She showed zero late punch, and finished a dreadful 14 ½ lengths off the winner. What happened? Just another head scratcher. Was it the distance? Or did she just bounce? Nobody has any answers, but I suspect the turn back to nine furlongs will be a perfect wake up call. She’ll get shuffled way back again, but if she stays in the same state as the others halfway in, this one is in with a real dark horse chance to upset the entire apple cart. PP4 DEHERE DABEAR (GR Simsters) 12-1 Fared better than some of the others in the Chestnut, managing a fourth place finish in a very even effort. Not possessed of a great turn of foot, she’s more of a grinding type who holds her position near the leaders and tries to wear them down in the lane. Nearly did so in the G1 City of Lights leading up to the Bluegrass Oaks, but that place effort- which resulted in a lifetime best 100 figure- left her absolutely empty for the Oaks, where she was throttled badly. Should rebound here, although I have a sneaking suspicion that she’ll be at her best at ten furlongs, and should be a real force in the Birmingham Stakes in August. One thing is certain- she’ll have to do a lot better than that career high 100 to figure in this field. PP5- OBTRUSIVE (DelPenn) 15-1 Late blooming filly who seems to like to run at distances beyond what her pedigree would suggest. By Storm Cat out of a miler influenced Danzig mare, the lightly raced filly (this will be only her ninth start) has been consistent, if not brilliant. She’s been off the board only one time in her career, but has only two wins to her credit. She’s run at nine or nine and a half furlongs four times- and shows two wins, a second and third, the latter in the G1 Hypnotic Explosion Stakes where she made a nice, albeit far too late finishing move to get up for third, posting a career best 100 fig in the process. She’s on the improve, with increasing figures in each of her last three races, but she’ll have to make a giant jump to figure here. Another that figures to possibly join Dehere Dabear in the Birmingham in six weeks or so. Probably a better spot there, but this race should give her some much needed seasoning, although it would be a huge surprise if she pulls it off. PP6- EQUIVOCATIONS (DelPenn) 6-1 So who screwed the Minnesota horses with all the outside post positions? Six in, and not one of their five drawn yet? Anyways, this is the second filly in the field hailing from the Super stables, and she’s much the better of the two- right now. Ran a brave third in the Oaks, then just missed getting up for the show spot in the Black Middle Flower. Off since then, the hope is that the break gives her some extra punch here. The Dynaformer filly is another who’s more of a grinder, and she’s another who is at her best wearing the competition down with a steady, prolonged run. That hasn’t suited her particularly well in top notch competition. She seems to have plateaued a bit, but is one of only two horses coming in with four straight 100+ figures. Demands respect off the class factor, but is a bit of an underlay at 6-1. Would have probably fared better on a off track. In with a shot, but she has to move to a new level to reach the winner’s circle. PP7- EE BRIGHT LIGHT (Minnesota) 15-1 Hails from a stable group with a ton of prior success- Whirlaway trained the outstanding older mare First Ryder, so she knows how to win big races. This filly, by Japan exiled sire Fantastic Light, has been a bit of an enigma, though. A grade 1 winner at two, she’s been very slow to develop at three, but maintains the #13 ranking in the division. She’s shown some signs of life lately, though, which is more of what one would expect from a sire like Fantastic Light, who doesn’t excel at producing precocious youngsters. Backed down from graded ranks to listed stakes, she moved back to alw conditions LTO to gain a much needed confidence boost with a facile win, posting a lifetime best 99 fig in the process. While that won’t get it done here, she did win that race with a lot left in the tank, a sign that there are better things to come. Whether or not those better things are in this race is another question altogether. She’ll have to make a huge jump just to hit the board, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. PP8- RATTYBURG (Minnesota) 12-1 Minnesota’s best shot in here is a huge overlay. She’s proven her class already, with a huge win the G1 California Oaks, and then followed that up with a solid second in the G1 lool Oaks. She was respectable in the Bluegrass Oaks, finishing 10th, but beaten only seven lengths. The wheels came off completely in the Chestnut, where the usually closing Johannesburg filly got outclosed by nearly everyone else in the field. That was probably a result of a speed oriented pedigree more than anything else, as in addition to having a sprinter/miler on top of her pedigree, she has sprinter/miler written all over her dam sire, Wild Again. Perhaps more than anyone in the field, she should relish the turn back to nine panels, but I suspect she will be at her best at 8-8.5 furlongs, and may find this just a bit too far. However, at 12-1, she’s perhaps the liveliest longshot in the field, and smart punters should jump all over her. It’s a certainty that she’ll run better than she did in the Chestnut, and it’s not a total stretch to see her taking down the whole ball of wax. PP9- CARING MISS (GR Simsters) 17-1 So the turf try LTO was a total disaster, and that’s precisely why you’ll get a nice, fat price on this Vindication filly. Prior to the ill advised turf try (hindsight is always 20-20), she popped a 101 figure to just miss in the GR Simsters Kentucky Oaks. This will be only her eighth career start, and she’s tackling some real monsters here, but I suspect that she will eventually show she belongs with the top tier, but probably not here. With a little more seasoning, Caring Miss could turn into Brutal Miss in the fall, and I really love the lousy turf run- back to dirt angle. She’ll surprise in here, and very well could garner some points for the Smackdown total for GR Simsters. PP10- PINK RANGER ER (Minnesota) 20-1 Hennessy filly has only a maiden win to her credit, but has suffered a couple of heartbreaking losses, including one where she fired a 100 figure only to lose an alw race- while others were winning stakes races with the same sort of number. Slop fiend’s chances are badly compromised by a fast surface, but slop may not have helped her much, since Sabbath Point looks like a total slop beast. Still, while she may have figured on an off track, she’ll likely struggle to gain any points for Minnesota here, as the distance looks just a wee bit too far. Better things to come for this one down the road. PP11- DIABLO’S QUEST (Minnesota) 24-1 Has gotten much better as she’s stretched out, but still looks to be a few races away from finding her best stride. Cuts back a furlong after posting a career top 98 LTO at 10 panels, and I doubt the cutback in distance helps her cause much in here. Another stalker who lacks a quick turn of foot, she’ll have to get loose from the field three furlongs or so out to have a shot, and even then, she might get nailed by the closers in the field. Like the improving form, but it looks like it’s asking a bit much of her in here, although she’s definitely an overlay at 24-1. PP12- COILETTE (GR Simsters) 19-1 So here’s a graded stakes winner, who hails from a great barn, who also piled up five wins in a row before getting stomped in the G1 Hypnotic Explosion Stakes- and she’s 19-1? What gives? Well, the front runner has a lifetime best fig of 98- not close to making a dent in here- and she’s pretty much been losing ground in most of her starts in deep stretch. She hasn’t faced top notch company- and she will here. She’ll face severe pace pressure up front in the form of Crushing Ignorance, and the one time she didn’t make the front, she spit the bit in her last race. There’s your 19-1. Gotta wonder- in to win, or to set up Black Flag Flying? Have to think it’s the former- she’s far to good to play the role of sacrificial lamb for anyone. PP13- CRUSHING IGNORANCE (DelPenn) 17-1 Those odds on a horse who finished third with a lifetime best 102 in the Black Middle Flower? Just a testament to how tough this field is. Truth be told, she ran the race of her life there, and she came back off, so it’s hard to say what she’ll have left for this race. She’ll gun from the break, and try and hold off all late comers, even though she hasn’t been able to do that previously. Speaking of being a set up horse- she’s faced Sabbath Point three times, set the pace each time, and relented to Sabbath Point each time. Hmmmm….some cahoots going on here? She’ll be there at first call, second call and third call, but where she is at the finish is anyone’s guess. But she’s better than 17-1 for sure. PP14- CK UNBRIDLED HALO (Minnesota) 13-1 Here’s our yo-yo horse for the race. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Her last race was a big up, with a facile win while posting a 101 in a 9f alw race, with plenty left at the wire. Can she break the cycle? Unbridled’s Song filly is one with a big turn of foot when she fires. If she breaks her form cycle, she can definitely figure in here. Her best races have been at nine panels, so if she’s going to do it, this is the right time. PP15- BLACK FLAG FLYING (GR Simsters) 4-1 Ahh, Lenny. No big race is complete without him. The favorite in this race, Black Flag Flying is the epitome of a “hard luck” horse. In her last six races, dating back to February, she’s run the following string of figures: 103/100/105/101/106/101. What’s she got to show for it? Four seconds, one third, and one off the board finish. Holy cow. I think I’d be looking for a building to jump off if she were mine. Have to wonder, has she “forgotten” how to win? Stunningly consistent, occasionally brilliant, she just keeps running into buzz saws. So, this is the turning point, right? Well….I think not. She’s been facing top competition for eight months now. She’s been right there all the time. Has not bounced yet. And that’s the catch. Gotta figure that at some point, she’s going to take a step backwards before moving to the next level. I think it’s in this race. Sorry, lenny. You’re beat in here. SUMMARY– So, you think I pick mine to win here? Wrong. Too many things lined up against her. Don’t know how Sabbath Point rebounds after the Chestnut. It’s July, when strange things begin to happen. Speed figs for the slower developing three year olds are starting to jump, and now is the time that the summertime horses catch their spring contemporaries. There are several in here who fit that bill perfectly. WIN-Equivocations PLACE- Vinspector Gadget SHOW- Sabbath Point Good luck to all in Smackdown (except GR Simsters. LOL).