The Carney Memorial highlights possible Breeder’s Bowl hopefuls

Juveniles take the track once again in this week’s Carney Memorial, a possible warmup for some Breeder’s Bowl Turf hopefuls. The race will run over eight and a half furlongs of firm turf, for a prize of $50000 at the wire. This is an excellent chance to grab some of those all important stakes points for Breeder’s Bowl entry. That factor could be as important to some of these trainers as the purse here. It will also give these trainers a chance to see how their prized horses will perform at this distance on a track that has hosted the likes of Storm Dog. Five colts and a filly have signed up to try this one, and for the most part, the odds are pretty tight, without a real distinct edge. Favorite is at 8/5 with four of the remianing five entries going off at 5/1 or better.

PP 1) Cryin Shame(IRE) Sired by Street Cry(IRE), Trained by ajr14. Cryin Shame(IRE) is the sole filly to grace this field, making her seventh career start. In her first six starts, she has put together a record of 3-0-0-1-0. She comes off a win at this distance against the boys in her last outing, ekeing out a thriller right here in Virginia. She’s a leader/stalker type, and she needs a good jump to be effective. She has proven to be quite dangerous if she gets a piece of that early lead. She has the speed to make it count in this field, and hasn’t been out of the money since switching to turf three starts back. Her breeding gives a surface versatility, which works to her advantage since turf speeds tend to be slightly slower. And she gets the stamina to go Classic distance or longer for both sides of her pedigree. By the first turn we should be able to gauge her in this race. If she still has a piece of that lead, she is going to be right in the mix at the wire.

PP 2) King Cong Sired by Congaree, Trained by starstruck. King Cong steps back up to stakes level here in his fifth race, making his second run on turf. He’s gone 1-1-0-0-1 in his first four. He comes off a harder closing second in an open allowance in Northern California last outing, posting the highest speed rating in this field, with a run over eight furlongs. He is a solid closer, and seems to be screaming for the distance, or perhaps a slightly faster jump. The softer surface in his last race seemed to give him more purchase for his close, but it still wasn’t enough to get him in the winner’s circle. The extra ground here should help. His sire is a Freshman, but has already shown some talent producing routers, although he has been generally stronger on dirt. He picks up a stronger turf influence from Green Dancer on his dam side, though, as well as some reinforcing stamina. The question here is will he again find himself with too much ground to make up in the second half. If he can get a slightly faster jump, he could surprise here.

PP 3) Nile Matty Sired by Shabab, Trained by cjjonesz. Nile Matty earns a well deserved longshot rating in this race, making his fourth start. He is 0-1-1-0-0 in his first three, looking to break his maiden here in his first try. He ran his career best in his first try on turf in his last outing, finishing second in a high value MSW in New York at six furlongs on an off track. His speeds so far don’t bode well for him in this field, especially at this distance. He sire is a highly underused sophomore, and his few progeny haven’t shown any real potential yet. His dam sire, likewise, hasn’t been in high demand, and hasn’t produced any breakout runners in his stud tenure. This horse held his own on a Class A track in his last outing, and seems to have a chance to shine on turf. The distance will most likely be too much for him, though, so though his 50/1 odds are attractive for a bet, I can’t recommend him here.

PP 4) Leader’s Edge Sired by Kingmambo, Trained by coffee. Leader’s Edge has the oddmakers’ nod in this one, though he makes only his third career start, and steps up to stakes level straight off his MSW victory. That race was seven and a half furlongs on turf in Rhode Island where he convincingly beat a field of eight in his first try on this surface. He likes to close from just off the pace, and the softer surface kept him much closer to striking rance. The extra furlong is a question, but he breezed in the second half of his last. He is the most royally bred colt in the field, being Kingmambo out of a Storm Cat mare. Both consistently produce good turf runners, and Kingmambo, especially, lends a lot of distance possibilty to this horse. His odds here are obviously based on his breeding, as he has yet to prove himself in a field of this caliber. He has the pedigree, and this race should show whether he has the heart to go with it.

PP 5) Barb’s Esteem(IRE) Sired by Mark Of Esteem(IRE), Trained by marybarn. Barb’s Esteem makes a fourth career start here, and runs in his third consecutive stakes. He brings a 1-0-2-0-0 record to the table. This will be his longest start to date by a furlong and a half. He has raced all of his first three on turf. He comes off a third place finish in a seven furlong try in his last outing in DC, fading down the stretch after a strong close in the second half. He show some good closing capability from midpack, but as he has stretched out, he hasn’t been able to hold his close down the stretch. His sire has generally produced better sprinters, but the stats don’t preclude distance, and he definitely gives a turf influence. Royal Academy on his dam side adds a bit more stamina to the mix, but his horses tend to gain strength longer as they get older. I think the distance will be too long for him here for him to be a major threat. I would try him back in a shorter sprint.

PP 6) Red Tie(IRE) Sired by Black Tie Affair(IRE), Trained by grim2k1. Red Tie(IRE) makes his seventh career outing here, and his fourth straight stakes start. He has yet to finish worse than fourth, posting a 2-1-0-3-0 record in his first six. He comes off a fourth place finish in an eight and a half furlong stakes in in Virginia last outing. He is a fast starter, and is another in this field that needs a piece of the early lead to be effective. Turf is definite his surface of choice, and his speeds have been very consistent, on a par with most of the others here. Distance seems to be a question mark here, but it is only his second try at route distance, so he could have more than he has shown. His pedigree gives in a strong base for routing, and a slight edge for turf performance on his sire side. His breeding says he should easily make this distance. He should have a piece of the early lead in this one, and is looking for a little payback from Cryin Shame(IRE), who ran away from him down the stretch in the last one.