Grade III Denied Special
The features race in Vermont this week is the Grade III Denied Special. This race is a mile and a half race on dirt for all fillies and mares 3 years old and up.
1. GLADSTONE wistful2 10/1 (Birdstone X Sunday Silence) This 5 year old mare has only run going 12 furlongs three times. Winning 2 of those starts. Granted those wins came almost 2 years ago and she looks to be trailing off some these last few races. Her speeds are better than they have ever been but yet she is not placing as well. She did manage a win at 10 furlongs and though she lost at 11 past races have shown she closes and could use a bit more distance.
2. SUNNY NATALIA (KY) lgbost2yo 9/1 (Johannesburg X Kingmambo) this 4 year old mare as not managed a win at 12 furlongs in fact she finishes further back then she does at 11. I believe 11 furlongs to be her preferred distance her last start produced a career best 110 speed and had her closing second. Which 12 furlongs is a logical next step but she finished further back at the same odds. Hopefully it was a bounce and she will do well.
3. GOLDMAN SACHS (KY) bar131 6/1 (Ghostzapper X Seattle Slew) this race will be this 4 year old fillies longest race in her career. She’s posting higher speeds the further she goes and while she is untried at this distance she looks like she will love it. She has posted 110 and 111 speeds in her two longest races going 10.5 and 11. I don’t know what else she looks tough and will be VERY tough to beat.
4. CRIMINALLY INSANE (KY) shiekabner 9/1 (Rahy X Summer Squall) Love the name! This 4 year old filly discovered distance races back in October. Since then she has been posting win after win and not by any small margins, by 3, 4, and 5 lengths. The biggest and best wins for this fill come at 12 furlongs so this is the perfect race for her. My only concern is though she wins by a lot there are much faster fillies in this race and it will be a good test to see if she can run well enough to fight with the speed daemons here.
5. DESPERADO’S MAMBO desperado4 8/1 (Kingmambo X Sadler’s Wells) This five year old mare just got a two race freshener on turf. Running two races one of which was graded she placed 1st in the open and 5th in the graded but by 11 lengths. Before the turf she won 3 in a row going long on dirt. Generally horses do better with the switch so I am expecting this filly to run big.
6. FUSAICHI KRISSY danmancan 13/1 (Fusaichi Pegasus X Storm Bird) This 6 year old mare has had a very successful career on dirt going long. She has 12 wins at dirt routes and though successful her consistency is slowly diminishing. She can still win and put in a good performance but her last race was too much. She ran a clunker no surprise the distance was way too much. She should be happier here and with doing well in her last 12 furlong races it fits well.
7. FEARLESS FLASH (JPN) inessa24 8/1 (Charismatic X Capote) this 4 year old filly looks inexperienced compared to the older mares, but with only 17 races this filly is accomplished. Having only been off the board 3 times she is doing very well. She seems the most comfortable around 11-12 furlongs so this race should go well. She posted a career best of 111 going 11 furlongs 2 starts back. She should be on top of her game.
8. WAR IN HEAVEN waremblem8 9/1 (War Emblem X Nureyev) This 5 year old mare had a great performance going 8 furlongs in a restricted G1 race last year winning and posting a 108 speed. Though since then she hasn’t showed any preference to going that distance if anything she likes going shorter.
9. OUR DEEPEST FEAR (KY) wfstables6 14/1 (A.P. Indy X Woodman) The only two races this 4 year old mare has won in the last two years have been allowance races. She has gotten some thirds but by over 6th lengths each time. This doesn’t look good for a graded competition even a restricted one. Though the one third came in a G1 race last time out where she ran 16 furlongs. Not the best but she is improving… I might give her a shot on turf at some point. Might sharpen her up.
10. FORTHCOMING whodrwho25 7/1 (A.P. Indy X Seeking the Gold) This 6 year old mare loves 12 furlongs and with 5 wins in a row and her last 7 12 furlong races have all been wins. Her speeds have varied but have put up some rather nice speeds 108, 107. She likes this surface and steps up to the competition. Could be a very good race for her. I also love the name.
11. WHEEL IN THE SKY (KY) samurai 15/1 (Point Given X Deputy Minister) this 4 year old filly is bred for distance, Point Given’s babies in the sim love distance. She’s proven that by her best race which came at the furthest distance she’s run yet. She ran a 104 to finish 2nd going 11 furlongs. Hopefully she will like the step up in pace and will run the longer distance with success.
12. CSI SUPER super21 12/1 (Point Given X Frappiano) this 5 year old mare was very successful in the past winning races from 11-16 furlongs with ease. She won a graded 16 furlong race only to come back lay off. Then again a poor come back then another lay off. This mare seems to be on a pattern. Though the trainer has given her plenty of rest. She may need an even longer lay off or it might be time to consider retiring her. Hopefully she doesn’t get hurt and runs well here, especially after being so good in the past.
13. DUNSINANE bomber93 15/1 (Woodman X Seattle Slew) This 5 year old mare does very well in 12 furlong allowance races. She puts in a good effort and generally hits the board. While she has run few stakes races at 12 furlongs, she has won one and then the most recent finished badly. While she finishes poorly in some stakes and not in others I have not seen a pattern to it. Only that she seems to put out best efforts at 11 furlongs but does fine at 12 as well. Hopefully she will put in a good race here.
14. TURNTABLE (GB) dazzler 14/1 (Pivotal X Ahonoora) Not the breeding I would expect to see on a dirt horse but this 5 year old mare excels on the dirt. She closes fast and hard and looks tough. She however, does seem to be missing some spark her speeds are not at the top of her class and she did put in an amazing 106 going 11 furlongs in a stakes. 14 furlongs looks to be too much and 11 not enough. I think she will be happy with the distance and if she can put up the same speed figure she could do very well.
I like the 10 and the 3 however watch the 14 and the 7 who are looking to improve and the 14 if she steps up could really do well.