The New Yorker

After a disappointing sixth in the Bluegrass Derby, Urban Storm Cat’s connections wisely chose to rest the colt a few extra weeks and bring him back refreshed for the New Yorker. The colt, who actually closed very well in the Derby, has a strong preference for coming from way back. Will the extra quarter-mile he’s trying for the first time be enough to let him catch up to the front and win? I suspect he’ll in the end prove a better 9f runner than marathoner, he acquitted himself decently in the Derby and you do have to appreciate the advantage the extra rest will offer here.

Storm Cat x Forty Niner

A newcomer to the Triple Crown, Dixieland Dooter also managed the title of longshot in the longest race many of this age group will ever run. He was languishing in allowance company just three starts ago, running well but not at the level many expect of a Triple Crown contender. His owner decided, however, to let the colt stretch out to 9.5 panels and wonder of wonders, Dooter loved it. So graded company was on his immediate radar, and a G1 at 11 four weeks ago was perfect timing for Dooter’s debut in grades. It wasn’t a win, but the colt flashed some good early speed and held on long enough for third behind Rock Hard Korn and Well Groomed.

Dixieland Band x Alydar

Of the six colts making an appearance in all three legs of the Triple Crown, Lucky’s Mash has perhaps been the most consistent in his speed figures. He pulled off a solid fourth in the Derby, but never managed to get running in the Middle Jewel, settling for ninth. The quick turnaround seems not to have suited him. An extra week between starts this time has to help, but will it be enough? Distance is also a question: His older full brother Lucky’s Carpet has settled in as a good 8.5-9f horse. With his best speed figure earned at 10f, that does bode well for getting 12 furlongs.

With Approval x Dandy Delight (Kris)

Many (myself included) thought the Breeders Bowl Juvie winner had no chance in the Derby. Winless since the Derby, no triple-digit SPs, and the rarity of juvenile champs turning into 3yo stars made a lot of people wary of this horse. After the Derby, feelings about Daisy were similar. sure, he went a little faster, sure, he finished in the top third of the field. But it wasn’t until after the Middle Jewel that he got some serious look as a classic contender. The huge 106SP, and the third place by under three lengths, were impressive enough to indicate that Daisy is back. With several top marathoners in his immediate family tree, he’s perfectly bred for the distance. Lots to like about this champion colt.

Afleet Alex x Rhino Daisy (Affirmed)

He slowed down a bit SP-wise last out, but Well Groomed still earned his way into the New Yorker with an excellent closing effort in an 11f G1. He has a pedigree full of stamina and appears to relish every yard of ground he’s granted to run. despite few wins, he’s well-experienced in running in big races and has failed to cash a check just once. For a newcomer to the dirt classics, he’s well-poised to break out as a new star of the division.

Seeking The Gold x Blushing Groom

Like Well Groomed and Dixieland Dooter, Rock Hard Korn earned his New Yorker entry via an 11f G1 a month ago. Unlike his foes, RHK won that race, making him one of just two horses with a long-distance win in this field. RHK popped two big speed figures at the 9-89.5f range, but failed to grab 3 digits in that G1 last out. Can be attributed to the general slow nature of that race, but he’ll likely need to get back up to the 105 range to win this one. Most effective when he hangs out close to or on the lead.

Rock Hard Ten x Seattle Slew

Dance Steps is the other 11f winner, and he earned that in an unusual manner. For the first time since January he stayed right near the lead and just smoothly moved to the front in early stretch. The change worked as he rolled to a lovely two-length win and a new lifetime high SP. The major reason such a good wi isn’t getting more support for Dance Steps is the track condition in that race. A solid win on a sloppy track is not the best of preps to lead to a super win going longer on a fast track.

Seeking The Gold x Coppelia (Nureyev)

Third in the Derby turned into first in the Middle Jewel victory. Blues is far from his owner’s best horse ever, but this colt has turned into a special one despite being a second string Derby entry. He loves to come from well back but even so he has a great tactical turn of foot that allows him to choose just when he wants to make his move. The huge SP he earned in the Middle Jewel would ordinarily prompt concerns of a ounce, but when backed up by the 106 in the California Derby, he sure appears to be the real deal.

Fusaichi Pegasus x Nureyev

So why’d the mudlover show up again? Can’t be because he’s actually good. Right? I suppose sixth in the Middle Jewel, backed by a 101, shows he really can run semi-decently on a fast track. Not exactly bred to love 12f, but stranger things have happened. Hard to really adore a nw3l eligible colt, even if he can run competently against this crew. He looks like he might like extra ground, but really doesn’t deserve odds this low.

Maria’s Mon x Pro Cat (Storm Cat)

Shetan went into the Bluegrass well-liked, and came out with some good respect. A fifth in such a big race is a respectable accomplishment. In the Middle Jewel the colt drew much respect, and again ran fifth. Good, but not great. A third fifth here would be the sort of streak no trainer ever wants to see. Shetan is an excellent horse at 9.5, but he doesn’t seem quite up to carrying his stalking preference over this distance.

Storm Cat x Bucephalus (Fusaichi Pegasus)

He skipped the Derby in favor of a third in the Chief Snow, then went into the Middle Jewel at longish odds. A good fourth was the result, and puts him in good shape for this race. Been posting ever better speed figures as he stretched out, and while his pedigree is not perfectly suited to a marathoner, he shows signs of perhaps outrunning his genealogy. Prefers to close from well back, will do all his running in the stretch.

It’s No Joke x Initial Corn (Belong To Me)

Just one more win over the spring and Listening would have been in the Derby instead of finishing third to Dance Steps in the mud. Though he lost by over 8 in that 11f G1, he still was running well enough to merit a try in this big race, and has previously shown much better speed on fast dirt anyway. Like so many others entered, he prefers to close from the clouds, but is capable of moving earlier or later as needed. Could step up in a big way.

Eavesdropper x Coon’s Dog (Theatrical)

A three length win in the Derby propelled this barely-made-the-entry box runner into a sim star. He followed it up a heartbreaker of a Middle Jewel, losing to Folsom Blues by a bare half-length after being overtaken just strides before the wire. Top speed figure at 10f, some real quick acceleration, and a pedigree full of distance spell an excellent chance at a second classic win for the sim’s favorite dentist. Kissin could well be one of the best 3yo classic horses we’ve ever seen.

Street Cry x Kissin’ Cousin II (Sadler’s Wells)

Those 11f G1s on and around Derby day sure have been great ways to get into the New Yorker. Ucant is a great example of just useful those player-bought races can be. He earned his New Yorker ticket via a good second to Dance Steps five weeks ago. A third in a 9.5f G1 before that sure didn’t hurt. With just one stakes win (in a listed event) he hasn’t yet proven he’s quite up to par with this crowd, but placings in his only two graded tries satisfies me that Ucant is the real deal. His big advantage here is his strong preference for the lead. A couple other entrants like to be near it, and Diieland Dooter loves the front, but Ucant is the only confirmed frontrunner with the speed to take it gate to wire. If his foes let him slip to a big lead, they may not be able to run him down.

Broken Vow x Coominya Cup (General Meeting)