Desert Filly Juvenile
Grade III
Six furlongs
Good Dirt
$150,000
Fillies and mares, 2 years old |
Welcome to the Desert Kingdom for todays feature, the Grade II Desert Filly over 6f on the slightly wet dirt course.
A decent field of twelve go to post, with almost half the field being outsiders. That though means there are still seven which have a real chance according to the morning line.
Let’s take a look at the runers, one by one-
SHE’LL BE APPLES(AUS) (FLYING SPUR(AUS) x SALT LAKE x ALLEN’S PROSPECT) 9/1 One run and one win from this daughter of Flying Spur, with a good sp of 75 and a comfortable victory. There is plenty of speed (at least SIM speed) in the pedigree although I would expect her to stay a mile in due course. She’s a scratch bred so there is no sibling form to go on but with an ordinary amount of improvement she must surely go close here.
BUTTON AND BOWS(KY) (PULPIT x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD) 6/1
One win from two runs, that being her maiden over 5.5f where she won with a bit in hand. The sp is only ordinary however and her second run seemed to bear this out. Although she only went down by less thantwo lengths in a Grade III she only ran a 67 sp which wasn’t much of an improvement from first time out. She appears top be 6/1 on her pedigreerather than her results and without considerably improvement she may struggle here.
JOSEFINA(KY) (SCAT DADDY x CAT THIEF x SEEKING THE GOLD) 14/1
Again two runs but two wins for her with a 68sp maiden win and a 67sp stakes win latest. Button and Bows has only run 1 sp point better in each of her races but is half the price, but the same story applies to Josefina as did to her- a heap of improvement required as as the sp’s simply arn’t good enough. With her speed figure dropping from first to second run, you have to be worried as to where the improvement will come from.
REDOUSTINA(AUS) (REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x STORM CAT) 13/1
Two wins from three runs for her, with the wins being in a maiden and a stakes both over 5.5f. Again plenty of speed in the pedigree but sp’s of 63 and 64 to win races are not impressive, even for a two year old and she is another who must improve a ton even to figure. With all the speed in the pedigre she should be ready early and fast from her first run if she’s any good, so you wonder why should should improve by the required amount. Can’t see a win today.
SCAT NINE(KY) (SCAT DADDY x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) 5/1
Another with two wins from three runs but she has improved with each runm, winning a maiden with a 75 and an allowance with an 80. There’s plenty of speed in the pedigree with a touch a stamina too and she’ll get a mile in course. Even another 80sp would puther right in the mix here, so if her improvement continues she could take a lot of beating. |
ERATO(KY) (VINDICATION x UNBRIDLED x TURN-TO) 7/1
One win from two runs from her, but a decent bit of improvement from first to second runs. That said her sp’s are still below some of the others here and she’ll need to improve again to get in the money. She looks more of a mile prospect and it may be prudent to save her for later in the year, now that it’s clear that she has some talent.
MONTEDEVESA(KY) (SAARLAND x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) 5/1
Nice first time out win with a 75sp but a big disapointment second time up with only a 64sp and a six length beating in a stakes. There are only two possible reasons, the drop in trip was against her and she needs 7-8f already, in which case she will struggle here or she isn’t as good as the first run suggests and again she will struggle here. Either option does not look good today and I don’t get the 5/1 tag on the morning line.
SILVER BALL(KY) (SILVER TRAIN x BALLINGARRY (IRE) x GRAND SLAM) 23/1
Only one win from thre runs and a best sp of 66 says why she’s 23/1 on the morning line. The basic spped is not good enough and she shows no signs of the massive improvement needed to take a hand here. Nearer last than fist.
BRAINWASH(ENG) (OASIS DREAM (GB) x BROAD BRUSH x FORTY NINER) 7/1
Another with only one win and she’s bred for a mile on turf so perhaps it’s no surprise. The small improvement she has shown will not be near good enough here and mid table respectability is the best she can hope for. Would love to see her on turf though.
KALIMA(ENG) (LIBRETTIST x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER) 4/1
Two wins from two runs and two decent sp’s to match. The only trouble is that there was not much improvement from first to second run but even a couple of points should see her in the mix. Speed, speed speed in the pedigree I expect a big run and she looks a worthy favourite. She has a tendancy to get behind in a race a finish with a late surge, with all the speed on show here I hope the leaders arn’t too far gone.
FOURTH SEAL OPENED(KY) (DEVIL HIS DUE x SLEW O’ GOLD x FORTY NINER) 15/1 |
No maiden runs but a Grade III win with a 72 sp over 4.5f. The sp isn’t nough to figure here but she’s bred to get 9f so that drop in trip shouldn’t have been ideal. That means she should improve a fair bit for todays step up in trip and the 15/1 on offer on the morning line looks a steal. Must have a good chance of earning some money today.
CAT CAT CAT(NZ) (CHINA CAT x CAT COUNTRY x FOREST WILDCAT) 65/1 The outsider of the field and with good reason, she couldn’t win an allowance latest and only rana 64sp which is miles below the standard set here. Cheaply bred except for Forest Wildcat at the tail of the pedigre, she looks nailed on- for last
OVERALL A tough one to call with so little form and so many unknowns but there are several in the field with real promise and I’ll be putting some win, place and show money on Fourth Seal Opened. |