GII The Jai Alai Park Handicap Preview

SATURDAY 18 FEBRUARY 2023 – 3:30PM EST | FLORIDA | 9.5 FURLONGS | FAST DIRT | $375,000
Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older | 10 RUNNERS

#1 HEIRBRAVE – deyoto2 – 7/1
The five year old by Arrogate will break from the number one gate. Last time out, after 23 starts, trainer deyoto2 finally got him that elusive stakes victory in the Ship Alert Dirt Route. They grey had to show all his battling qualities to put his head in front where it mattered in a tight finish and so comes here in good form. Previous attempts in graded races haven’t quite gone to plan though and he looks up against it here.

#2 REISE REISE – michaelb – 8/1
The five year old son of Frankel was claimed by trainer michaelb for $150,000 just two runs ago. The gelding immediately paid back a small chunk of that when third in the Upper Management Dirt Route stakes last time over nine furlongs. He stayed on really well after being outpaced early that day and the slight increase in distance will help but the increase in class may not and I fear he may get too far behind in this.

#3 ARMY RESERVE – display – 7/2F
The favourite here is display’s seven year old son of Gun Runner, who notched up win number nine last time out here in Florida. The victory in the GIII Willing and Able Stakes was proof that the veteran can still compete at this level and took his career earnings beyond $800,000. Previous to that run, he was unlucky not to get that first Grade I win when runner up in GI The Japan Dirt Cup. Time will catch up with him eventually but after his recent successes, not just yet.

#4 NINENDAVA – simsters8 – 7/1
Simster8’s five year old ships in from Texas after his allowance victory over this distance there last month. The six time winner by Justify needed every inch of that 9.5 furlongs to lead in the shadows of the post and record a career best 116 speed. He does have a couple of placings in stakes events but this is a first attempt in graded company. He regularly races over longer distances so will stay this trip well. Does he have the speed though to trouble some classy rivals?

#5 DORO WRAIGHT – cliftonred – 6/1
Last time out, in his first start at a four year old, cliftonred’s colt dipped his hoof into graded racing and was unlucky not to get the win. The son of Medaglia D’Oro took the lead off the final bend in the GII Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous Handicap, only to get collared inside the final furlong. The dual stakes winner has good form over this trip and in this grade and is having just his twelfth start. Compensation for that narrow defeat last time awaits. Could it be here?

#6 FLIP OF FATE – givenlove – 4/1
The challenger to the favourite in the betting market is givenlove’s Kingman gelding. The consistent five year old narrowly missed out on landing a hat trick of wins last time out when runner up in the GII Xmas in Texas over ten furlongs. He was finishing best of all that day and will need every yard of this slightly shorter distance. Expect a similar run here as he tries to get that eighth career victory with that strong finishing kick. Just as long as the finishing line doesn’t come too soon for him.

#7 QUALITY PANEL – harrylanlow5 – 15/1
After an unsuccessful try on the grass, harrylanlow5’s Quality Road colt crushed an allowance field over this distance last time out. The four year old settled in rear early and finished late and fast to win and post a 118 speed figure. This company is much tougher but he does have a stakes win and a third place in the GII Quality Road from early last year, both over this 9.5 furlong trip. Expect him to stay the trip well and pass beaten horses late.

#8 COLAS – kaner4 – 19/1
The four year old son of Quality Road comes here on the back of a trio of allowance race wins over ten furlongs. Kaner4’s colt has a 50% win rate over his ten starts and his chances here rest on whether he can gain an uncontested lead. He will find this graded opposition much more difficult to dominate than he has encountered recently but the outsider in the betting market has earnt the right to test himself here.

#9 MUSKETEER B – jakematt – 5/1
Jakematt’s six year old is the most experienced runner in the field and is having his 25th start here. The horse by Candy Ride has been out of the winners circle for over a year now since his GIII Queen of the Country Stakes win in late 2021. Despite showing encouragement in two Grade III races last year, his last three runs have been very disappointing and point to the fact that his best days are now long behind him.

#10 BOHO THE OX – beerkeg0 – 9/1
Breaking from the widest gate is beerkeg0’s five year old. The War Front gelding has five career wins to his name but four of those were as a juvenile where he signed off his two year old campaign with a victory in the GI Movieland Futurity. He has been highly tried since, however has just an open allowance win last May to add to his successful juvenile season. Recent attempts in graded company have resulted in very poor runs and is hard to recommend here.

SELECTIONS : #5 DORO WRAIGHT – #3 ARMY RESERVE – #6 FLIP OF FATE – #7 QUALITY PANEL