Kentucky odds a MISCALCULATION

By ITCH

Pardon your old-timey West Virginia writer for filing this preview a little later than we like.

We were downstairs in line with all the rest of the Kentucky folk waiting to empty our wallets on MISCALCULATION at an unreal 5-1 in Saturday’s Grade I, $500,000 CEVIAN Stakes going 7.5 furlongs on the main track for 3yo fillies.

Our Sim is so realistic in almost every aspect, with a rare exception being the parimutuel side of things. In real life, no way in the world that a filly like Circusham’s MISCALCULATION, undefeated at a perfect seven-for-seven so far for his fanatical stable, goes to post at anything more than even money. This dark gray daughter of Unbridled’s Song is the Real McCoy, folks. She’s ranked No. 1 in the 3yo filly sprint division and with good reason. The filly has not been running up her gaudy record against slouches, or even allowance fillies, for that matter. Circusham has shown nothing but confidence in this filly right from the outset. She broke her maiden right here in Kentucky, and from there went straight into stakes company. She shipped successfully to the Asian region for two non-graded wins, then came back to the states for her first graded win, the Grade 2 Yanta Snez Stakes. She only won by a nose that day in January, over Murray1’s nice filly TAKING THE RAP. (Parenthetically, the stress of running that close to Miscalculation seems to have taken the starch out of Taking the Rap. She’s only raced once since and was off the board in a non-graded race.) Miscalculation has kept right on going, however, capturing three straight Grade I races here in Kentucky that appear to have been purchased by her owner. I guess if you ever are gonna pay the steep price to buy graded races in the Sim, it could be for a terrific filly like this one. She’s staying right on her game in this race. Same track. Same distance. Same class. Different jockey, and mostly different opponents, however. D. Givins has ridden this filly all four times she’s raced here in Kentucky, but he’s off to New York to ride for the Super stables in the New Yorker. The job on Saturday falls to R. Connor, a capable 13-plus percent rider, but he’s no D. Givins. Of her opponents, most of the trainers who were beaten in the previous three Grade I’s are letting discretion be the better part of valor. They’ve seen enough of Miscalculation. Plenty of other legitimate graded-quality fillies are lining up for their shot this time, and Miscalculation is going to have to earn it if she’s to go eight-for-eight.

Second qualifier is Qwikvett’s PORN STARR out of his korn stable. Representing the Northwest Racing Circuit, this brown daughter of Empire Maker cuts back in distance here Saturday after getting thrashed last out in the Bluegrass Oaks. She was 19th that day, a disappointment off her decent third-place finish in the Wooden Indian. This filly was only a length and a half from making the Bluegrass Derby. Maybe that wasn’t such a bad thing, however, as the two colts who beat her in the Wooden Indian went on to get pulped in the Derby. As a matter of fact, the Wooden Indian is looking like the polar opposite of a key race, as all three of the ones who hit the board have gone on to race very poorly in their next starts. It’s been a tough spring on this filly and we have to hope for Qwikvett that she can rebound to form in this race. This will be her first sprint race in a while, which could be just the tonic for a form rebound. She is a perfect one-for-one at the distance, 7.5 furlongs, having won a non-graded stake as a 2yo at the distance. Her Grade I win was a sprint, so there is reason to believe that Porn Starr may be in a better spot in this race.

There’s a ton to like about the third-place qualifier, VHEISSU for Adrian’s astinator8 stable. First of all, it’s a good idea to give a healthy dose of respect to any single horse that Adrian enters. He is among the Sim’s elite as far as winning races. You aren’t going to find very many trainers with a total winning percentage of 24.2 percent. A lot of his stables are winning even more than that, especially the newer ones, several of which are winning more than 30 percent. This is a shrewd trainer who consistently places his horses where they can win. If he thinks Vheissu belongs in this race, we have to believe him. So, we are a big fan of the trainer, and it is not hard to be a big fan of this filly, as well. Of the several handicapping angles in her favor, this one is probably our favorite: The one time she raced against Miscalculation, she actually made up 3 1/2 lengths from the second call to the finish. That’s pretty amazing right there, because Miscalculation was flying in that race. Here’s another angle to like: This filly never has missed the board! She is a perfect nine-for-nine, with six wins. The filly is just a model of consistency and can be expected to fire a big shot with her late kick here Saturday.

Pointblank’s POMEROY’S QUEST also has been on the track with Miscalculation. More than once, as a matter of fact. We count three times that Right at Home Stables, representing the Northwest Racing Circuit, have seen fit to tangle with Circusham’s undefeated filly. So, we know Pomeroy’s Quest never has beaten Miscalculation, being as that one’s undefeated. How has Pomeroy’s Quest done in these three defeats? Not too bad, really. She made up ground in two of the three races, and hit the board in two of three. In the Yanta Snez, Pomeroy’s Quest came flying to be a close-up third, making up 1 1/4 lengths on Miscalculation from the second call to the finish. In the Circusham Derby, she ran very strong late again to get up for second, making up a quarter-length on Miscalculation. It was in that race that Pomeroy’s Quest seems to have hit her peak, however. Since then, she’s off the board in four straight. She had nothing for Miscalculation in their third meeting two back, when PQ was fifth and made up no ground on the winner. Unfortunately, this is a classy filly who’s got talent but has fallen into poor form. With only two victories lifetime, this filly is very eligible for a rest and drop into a restricted allowance. Maybe then she’ll come back to herself and be ready to challenge the Sim’s top-class fillies again.

BLACKJACK HENNY is in better form for At The Wire Thoroughbreds. This is an up-and-coming brown daughter of Henny Hughes who has taken a signficant step forward in her last two races, both in terms of class accomplishment and speed figures. We’ve got back-to-back triple digit numbers coming into this race, both earned in graded company. Blackjack Henny jumps up into Grade I competition here, but the move makes all the sense in the world, coming off a win in the Grade 2 Manhattan District Stakes going seven furlongs. Currently ranked as the No. 21 dirt sprinting filly in the Sim, this one looks to be moving up here. I guess Atthewire really will find out what kind of filly he has here Saturday, as she takes on the No. 1 filly in Miscalculation. If she can beat her? Wow. It’s a tough spot to go wading in against the champ on her home turf in a race that’s been bought for her, but Blackjack Henny has earned the shot. Her speed figures match up and she’s adjusted well to jumps in class already. Never off the board in eight career starts, this filly is razor sharp. Miscalculation better bring her “A” game here Saturday or this is a filly ready to pounce on some bigtime stakes points.

Here is your race favorite, all the way down in the sixth qualifying spot: It’s MINISTER OF HUMOR, and now we see that Pointblank is running a very strong entry in this race indeed. While Pomeroy’s Quest may not be in great form, she’s got the class and so does Minister of Humor. Boy, does she ever! This brown daughter of Distorted Humor is an equine bullet. She’s an eye-popping seven for nine lifetime, a record that would stand out in just about any field except this one, in which we have Circusham’s undefeated filly. Pointblank is sporting and as such, knows all about Miscalculation and is trying to knock her off her perch again in this race. Yes, Minister of Humor has tangled with Miscalculation before, just as her stablemate has. Well, not exactly the same. PQ faced Miscalculation three times, while Minister of Humor has faced her just once. That was two back in the Cosine Cup, a day on which Minister of Humor ran a very uncharacteristic race. Unlike every other start in her lifetime, she missed the break. She’s been first or second at the first call in eight of her nine lifetime races, but was sixth at the first call that day. As such, we’ll give this filly an excuse for that sixth-place finish. In fact, the race looks bad but you could credit Minister of Humor for holding her ground there in sixth and not fading, as a lot of speed horses do when they miss the break. It looks like a little more favorable pace scenario for this nice filly on Saturday in this race. All five of the fillies who have qualified in front of her here have the opposite running style. Although Miscalculation laid a little closer to the pace in her most recent triumph, the class of this field all share a closing style, which has to benefit a speedy filly like Minister of Humor.

There is a steep drop off from here in terms of stakes points. A couple fillies qualifying sixth or below do indeed have graded credentials, but have earned those running in route races. Others are making a big class jump.

Seventh is MINEES for the Shamran outfit, representing the EAAA. This is an amazingly resilient filly, who has run right through the theory that horses lose confidence when well beaten. In fact, this brown daughter of Kafwain has survived three disastrous days in the Sim only to come back and post her best lifetime speed figure in her last race (103), when an impressive third in the Grade 3 Leopard Stakes going a mile. The form off that race has to translate pretty well to the 7.5 furlong distance here, but the problem is, that race was only two weeks ago. This is short rest for a filly who has done quite a bit of racing already this spring. She’s so tough, though, maybe she can handle it. She’s had four tons of dirt kicked in her face when 14th in the Grade I Vermont Is for Lovers, 14th in the Grade 2 Louisiana Oaks and 16th in the Bluegrass Oaks. She caught a bad post last out when widest of 11, and ran a good race, anyway. She returns on short rest here and draws widest of 14. She catches the No. 1 filly in Miscalculation and a bunch of other legit Grade I talent. This is a tough spot. She might run anyway.

NEION DEION is next for the powerful Pierchinski Stables. This reporter has it from a good source that the Pierchinski Stables have, in fact, gone to the dark side, and have fallen under the control of the Evil Empire. Word in the chat room is that Lenny himself is at the controls of Pierchinski, with help from none other than the 2007 Sim Trainer of the Year and fellow GR Simster Squirrel. That is some pretty powerful Sim brainery right there, as you have the reigning TOY and a strong candidate for the 2008 award operating these barns. Pretty nice replacement trainers, and a pretty nice collection of horses for those two to get to take over, as well. The Pierchinski barn has a lot of good runners and Neion Deion is one of them. This brown daughter of Redoute’s Choice is nicely consistent, hitting the board in 10 of her 11 career races. She took a while to break her maiden, and she took a while to start running bigger speed figures, but she’s coming around these days. She comes into this race off twin speed figs in the mid 90s, which are good, but not quite up to snuff with the triple-digit fillies in here. Moreover, Neion Deion never has won even a non-graded stake. True, she’s been in the money all three times she ran in non-graded stakes, but she’s jumping all the way to Grade I here. It looks like she’s conceding advantages in this spot in terms of speed figs and class. On the other hand, you never know about these GR Simsters. They’ve been known to pull an upset or two.

The next filly bears a striking resemblance to Neion Deion in a handicapping sense. Like the Pierchinski filly, AMERICAN WAY for Mtk Mark’s Shamrock Stables makes the jump from non-graded competition. She’s had success there and escalated to speed figures in the 90s. Even off a win last out at this exact distance, American Way is getting dissed by the Kentucky oddsmaker at 18-1, the second-longest price in the field. The reason for that is that it only took an 88 to win that stake last out. And the very likely reason it only took an 88 was because it was a short field. There were only four fillies in the race. Same thing two back: only four fillies in that race, as well. So, Mark has done a nice job putting this filly in soft spots where she could pick up stakes points. Now, he’s reversing course and throwing her into a full field in a Grade I. This is a big, big challenge for this filly.

Our 10th qualifier is WONDERFUL GITTE for Zeco Stables Belgium, representing Benelux. This chesnut daughter of the Turkish sire Mountain Cat has knocked ’em dead twice in non-graded stakes going a flat mile, but currently shows spotty form. Her most recent victory in one of those mile races was three back, which earned her a shot against the boys in the Grade 2 Heat Less Stakes here in Kentucky. Wonderful Gitte managed a fourth that day, but regressed to sixth last out when returned to fillies-only racing last out. In calculating her class rating, you have to note she’s been off the board in all four of her graded tries. This filly has yet to prove herself at the class.

It’s kind of funny that the 11th qualifier kind of knocks a hole in the handicapping of Blackjack Henny, the fifth-place qualifier who previously seemed to handicap pretty well, having won the Grade 2 Manhattan District Stakes. But third in that short field of eight was ROCK THE BUDA for Twoofus Stables, who does not appear to be a legitimate graded-class filly at this time. In Rock the Buda, we have a very nice brown daughter of Rock Hard Ten who appears to have a good dose of high-class stamina. It is very interesting and encouraging that she earned a very nice speed fig of 95, her career best, when stretched out to nine furlongs. This filly is sprinting here on Saturday and it is this writer’s guess that this won’t be her game for long. While we are knocking this fillly’s chances here Saturday handicapping-wise, that doesn’t mean she is not a filly that we would love to have in our barns. She certainly is attractive, and she appears to have some real nice scope and distance ability to her. Now watch her go.

The 12th qualifier is HOLY SOUP for graywolf. All I can say is, good thing for the rest of the trainers that this is a Simulated horse race, and not a handicapping contest at Delaware Park. Otherwise, my man graywolf would be a 4 to 5 favorite. This is an old-timey Simmer who has his own way of doing things, and is successful in it. Some of his approaches to the game, like his breeding, are unconventional. But with this filly HOLY SOUP, we have a straight-up runner that absolutely does not belong in the 12th qualifying spot in this field. We know the points qualifying system is specific to distance, but this is an anomaly right here that a Grade 2 winner at a distance only 1/2 furlong different from today gets no points for that race in here. Holy Soup’s victory two back in the Grade 2 Mellow Breeze Handicap, coupled with her very good lifetime best speed figure of 103 in that same race, make her a legitimate member of the contending fillies in here looking to challenge Miscalculation.

Next last, we have AUROR DREAMS for the brainpain stables, who are a welcome addition to the Sim. We have a fairly new barn here, as the four-stable outfit has but 364 starts. We hope this new player with that nice-looking young man on the stable page is enjoying our fine game and is here to stay. Now, about this filly. First of all, whether or not she belongs in a Grade I field, she has been and will be a very nice claim. Brainpain spotted this filly in a $40,000 maiden claimer on the grass, and took her out of that race. From there, he switched her to dirt and has done very well. He led this filly to some nice earnings, and she grew speed figure-wise, up into the 90s. She has made some nice checks and picked up that first-level allowance score. Better yet, she bumped up into stakes class last time and was third, though beaten 12 lengths in non-graded company. Brainpain probably is going to find out that does not translate to Grade I ability, especially against the No. 1 filly, but that doesn’t mean this filly still will be a good claim and could prove herself in non-graded company. And then maybe graded.

Last is the lightly raced NICE DEEZINE for lender’s Deadinthelane Stables, representing those GR Simsters. Only five starts so far for this brown daughter of Storm Cat, making her the lightliest-raced in the field. That’s an advantage in just about any horserace anywhere. More gas in the tank has got to be a good thing, especially at today’s prices. It looks like the sky could be the limit for this filly, who started her career a perfect three-for-three. She rightly earned her way into graded company, where she has come a cropper somewhat in her first two tries. She was a disappointing 10th in the Grade I City of Angels, then an improved fourth in the Grade 3 Fiddle Sticks. It must be said, though, that there were only six fillies in the Fiddle Sticks, so that race is not as good as it first appears. So, she’s struggled so far in two starts at the graded level, and she has to prove it on Saturday.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!