Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile
Saturdays 9th annual running of the $250,000 Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile is as tough of a field as any this race has seen in recent memory. The largest margin of victory was back in 2002 where Gold Storm won by 2 1/2 lengths, also in 2005 Northern Blast came home in 1:10 3/5 setting the record time for this race. This race holds a lot of history, back in 2000 Pleasant Nijinsky finished a distant 9th in this race but went on to win the Travelers Stakes in his 3yo season. Who could forget Virtuoso 3rd place finisher in 2005 but went on to win the Bluegrass Derby, The New Yorker, and finish 3rd in the Travelers Stakes in his 3yo campaign. Who among these 14 entrants is going to write their name in the history books? Which among these is going to be next years possible Triple Crown hopeful? Before we get too far ahead of ourselves let’s take a look and see which of these 14 2 year old’s can tackle the challenge of winning this race.
PP 1 BRAVE ULYSSES(KY) 8/1 F Holmes ( 177 – 12 – 11 – 10 – 7% )
Brave Ulysses going out for trainer clapton is a nice looking chestnut colt out of Seeking the Best (IRE) x Affirmed x Halo. Brave Uylsses is 2 for 2 so far in his career Breaking his maiden back on March 29th at Vermont going 5 furlongs covering the ground in :59 1/5 winning by 1 /12 and posting a nice first time out Speed Figure of 71. Next out he ran in the Allowance leg of the Freshman Sire Series going 6 furlongs this time he covered the distance in 1:11 3/5 post an improved 78 Speed Figure. Brave Ulysses is in good form, he improved last time out and is taking a big step up in class for this race. Jockeys win % makes me nervous but if he can handle the increase in class he definitely has the speed and pedigree to be in the mix at the wire.
PP 2 TYCOON KING(IRE) 13/1 V Swanson ( 58 – 7 – 4 – 10 – 12% )
Tycoon King owned and trained by deputysam is a brown colt out of King’s Best (IRE) x Last Tycoon (IRE) x Polish Numbers. He has 2 races under his belt so far. First time out on April 12th at North California he broke his maiden in an 26k Allowance race going wire-to-wire in 1:11 4/5 posting a big 75 Speed Figure for his first try. After taking a month of his connections brought him back on May 10th to run in the Woodcutter Cap stakes race. In that race he broke very nicely, pressed the pace up to the top of the stretch and ran outta steam and finished 4th. He posted a disappointing 59 Speed Figure in that race which I am sure his connections were not to pleased about. Swanson gets the mount looking to steer the ship back on course. In a frenzy of a race such as this one there could be an outside shot the he will bounce back and show that speed he did in his first race. Too iffy for me to consider top 3.
PP 3 SPORTS GUY(KY) 5/1 N Paslay ( 49 – 4 – 2 – 1 – 8% )
Breaking from post 3 we have Sports Guy 1 of 2 entries owned by super1 is our 2nd choice at 5/1. Sports Guy has one heck of a pedigree, hailing from Awesome Again x Capote x Fappiano he is one of 3 horses who ran in the Grade 3 Television Stakes last time out. On March 21 he broke his maiden at Ostend in a 50k Allowance race coming from 5 1/4 back to win in a final time of :59 flat for the 5 furlongs while posting a 73 Speed Figure. Then on May 3rd at Kentucky in the shadow of the Bluegrass Stakes he stepped up in class and ran in the Television Stakes a 5 furlong Grade 3 race. In that race he broke from the gate 12th dropped back to 5 1/2 lengths and was making a closing stride, he ended up placing 9th but only 2 3/4 from the leader, talk about a tight finish. He posted 70 Speed Figure for that race dropping just a tad from his prior 73. Sports Guy steps up again off that effort and has the Pedigree, class and nice closing kick to catch the front runners in this race. Only knock I can find is I would’ve liked to seen a classier Jockey get the mount. Should be top 3 as long as the jockey doesn’t take have a bad trip.
PP 4 ALBERTA RICHES(JPN) 10/1 M Cooper ( 355 – 61 – 61 – 55 – 17% )
In post 4 we see shortplay’s Alberta Riches. This brown colt out of War Emblem x Pine Bluff x Believe It is going off a 10/1. First time out at Finland on April 5th he went 6 furlongs in a MSW-16k wiring the field in a time of 1:12 flat. He won impressively by 2 length and posted 74 Speed Figure in the process. His second start was the Elk Bubba memorial, that race a 5.5 furlong event seen Alberta Riches break second from the gate and press the pace the whole way through coming up a head short at the wire to finish second. He posted a 72 Speed Figure for the race. What the form doesn’t show is the heart and grit to fight the whole 5.5 furlongs. Again we see a nice pedigree, and some nice Speed Figures. Veteran M Cooper is aboard and should have this colt fighting for it early. You gotta love grit, heart and guts in a horse and this race is going to test every ounce of his. At 10/1 the odds makers show little respect. Has a chance to be there at the end.
PP 5 RENOVATE(IRE) 46/1 R Dixon ( 42 – 1 – 2 – 9 – 2% )
The number 5 Renovate owned by tigers80 is our longshot of the field at 46/1. Also this is our only filly in the race and the only horse to not yet break their maiden. Renovate is out of Intikhab (IRE) x Atticus x Roy. Her first time out she ran on a off-track at 4.5 furlongs in a 26k NW1x Allowance race at British Columbia. She was never a factor at all in that race, breaking 8th and ending up in 10th 5 1/4 lengths back posting a 48 Speed Figure. Her second start was a vast improvement from the first. This time she ran in a 6 furlongs in a 26k NW1x Allowance race at North California. In that race she broke out in 5th only a length an 3/4 from the lead, she dropped back a little but made a bit of a closing kick to finish second. She posted a 71 Speed Figure which was good new for her connections and a sign of improvement, if it had been a MSW race maybe she might of won by 1 3/4. Just too much downside to have a chance. No wins, poor jockey and a filly going against the boys this early.
PP 6 THE BIG PICTURE(KY) 9/2 R Parrish ( 69 – 9 – 10 – 14 – 13% )
In the 6 hole we have our luke warm favorite The Big Picture owned and trained by dublinlad. This colt out of Saarland x Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector has a dirt sprint rank of 51 so far this year. He is also our second horse who raced in the Grade 3 Television Stakes last time out. His first time out was a owner restricted NWRC 2008 Juvenile showcase at California at 6 furlongs. In that race he broke out to a narrow lead and drew off on the field with every step. He finished the 6 furlongs in 1:11 4/5 scoring a 77 Speed Figure for the effort. Next in the 5 furlong Grade 3 Television Stakes from post position 13 he broke out to a narrow lead, drew off by 3/4 of a length only to tire from the intense pressure. He finished a very close 4th posting a 73 Speed Figure in that race. Hard not to like a horse who posted a nice Speed Figure in a graded event and was also close to the finisher. With this his 3rd race and his connections intensely training him for this spot he might be a little more mature and have a bit more stamina. I see many more Graded events in his future. Should finish top 3 but not my win choice just too much pressure up front.
PP 7 SCAT BRUSH(KY) 16/1 P Campbell ( 128 – 13 – 16 – 11 – 10% )
The number 7 Scat Brush trained by graywolf4 is going off at 16/1. He is the most experienced horse in the field with 4 races under his belt. His pedigree of Suave x Broad Brush x Storm Cat is quite the eye catcher. In his first race he ran a MSW at 5.5 furlongs at Mexico. That race he ran pretty green breaking 11th and only loosing a little ground passing tiring horses to finish 4th with a 55 Speed Figure. Next out he was shipped to California for a 5 furlong MSW event, again he broke near the back fell back about 3 lengths but had a nice closing kick to win going away by 1 length. He finished with a final time of :59 3/5 posting an improved 66 Speed Figure. In his 3rd race his connections decide a turf try was in order, they sent him to Delaware for a 6 furlong Allowance race. Keeping in line with his last 2 race he broke at the back of the pack saved some ground and made a nice move to close for 2nd place 2 lengths behind the winner and posting a 61 Speed Figure. Last time out they brought him back to the dirt in Missouri for the 5.5 Furlong Cold Redhead Memorial Stakes. Running in a short field of 5 he broke last once more saved ground and showed that closing kick again just falling short and finishing 2nd posting a 65 Speed Figure for his dirt return. So far in 4 tries his connection have placed him very well but he might not yet have the speed to runner with some in this race. A good looking horse that might mature later in the season and run down some of these in longer races. Can’t see a win in this spot unless he improves drastically.
PP 8 WILL CHACHIN SHINE(KY) 19/1 V Jef ( 377 – 93 – 69 – 52 – 25% )
In post position 8 we have bauhaus trained Will Chachin Shine. He is the son of Will He Shine x Milwaukee Brew x Seattle Slew. So far this colt has 3 life time starts with 2 wins and a 3rd place showing. His first start was a 4.5 furlong MSW dash at California. In that race he went off at odds of 14/1, when they broke form the gate he stayed a bit off the pace and closed a 3 1/2 gap to win going away by 3/4 of a length. His final time was :53 1/5 and he posted a 65 Speed Figure for the race. Next time out his connections kept him in California for a 5 furlong Allowance try. In a short field of 5 he broke last and saved a bit of ground. Half way through he made his move and just tucked under the wire a head in front to nab the victory. He scored a 67 Speed Figure and had a final time of :59 2/5. Seeing him go 2 for 2 his owner pointed him towards the Woodcutter Cap a 5.5 furlong stakes race. Another short field of 6 horses Will Chacin Shine broke 6th trying to save ground 4 1/4 back but when it came time to kick it into high gear there was nothing there he finished 3rd 3 1/4 behind posting another 67 Speed Figure. This is another off the pace type horse who may lack the speed to catch the front runners in this race. If he decides to improve his running style does fit this race and he could nab a piece at the end. The jump in class could be too much for him to handle but veteran jockey with high win % increases his chances. Too iffy for me to pick.
PP 9 BOAGS ST. GEORGE(JPN) 18/1 L Gagliano ( 31 – 0 – 1 – 6 – 0% )
In the 9 slot we have cjt2 trained Boags St. George. A very interesting colt out of Stravinsky x Johar x Fantastic Light. At odds of 18/1 I think the odds maker might be underestimating this one a bit. He has 3 career races, his first being a turf try at 4.5 furlongs in an owner restricted MSW. That race was a 20 horse field where he broke 5th pressing the pace and finished 5th 1 1/2 back posting a 52 Speed Figure. His owners then decided to try their luck on dirt see how he reacted and boy did he ever. They sent him to Dubai for a 5 furlong MSW where he jolted out to the lead and went gate-to-wire drawing away at the end to win by 2 1/4 posting a 72 Speed Figure first dirt try. After seeing the improvement on dirt his connections sent him to Newmarket for the 6.5 furlong Figaro Fighter Cap. In that 9 horse field he wasn’t able to get the lead like in the prior race but stalked the leaders until the top of the stretch where he made his move and drew away to a 1 length victory. He is 2 for 2 in dirt starts, has won a stakes race and as won twice at long odds. He steps up in class and is at long odds again. The biggest downfall is the jockey. Jock has yet to win in 31 starts so hard to pick in a big race. has ability to be there and would love him if he had a jockey who won a race this year. Dark-horse pick
PP 10 REGENT(KY) 12/1 A Werner ( 61 – 7 – 6 – 9 – 11% )
In the 10 spot alluvial sends out Regent the son of Corinthian x Touch Gold x Forty Niner. Odds-makers have him 12/1 morning line and they might be going a lot off pedigree. Regent has 2 prior races the first being a MSW win at 5.5 furlongs where he broke 8th and stalked the pace until the top of the stretch where he won a hard fought 1/4 length victory. He came in at 1:05 4/5 and posted a 63 Speed Figure. Taking the normal route his owner sent him out in a Allowance race at 6 furlongs. This race saw much of the same as the first stalking the leaders all the way to the top of the stretch, he had a ton of kick but fell just short in 3rd only 3/4 back posting a very nice 73 Speed Figure. The owners elected to skip a ungraded stakes and move him right to this Grade II event, his stalking style is good to see when there will be 4-6 horse gunning for the lead. Pedigree suggest he should be able to handle the class, has potential but might fall short with others who have ran with better.
PP 11 DISREPUTE(KY) 10/1 L Brenner ( 303 – 45 – 37 – 50 – 15% )
The number 11 Disrepute trained by pjlstables is the son of Dixieland Band x Fusaichi Pegasus x Housebuster. That is one heck of a sprint pedigree right there. He is going off at 10/1 coming off 2 lifetime starts. His first start was a Allowance race at Michigan going 5 furlongs in a 14 horse field. Disrepute broke out 7th 3/4 off the lead pressing all the way through and pulling out a tough 1/2 length victory in a time of :59 1/5 scoring a 72 Speed Figure. His owners then shipped him out to Idaho where he caught a sloppy track in his second Allowance try at 5 furlongs. The slop scared off a few horses and we were left with a 6 horse field. Disrepute sat a length off out of the gate ran evenly most of the way and was making a drive at the end but couldn’t get there. He finished in 2nd place only 1/2 length back posting another 72 Speed Figure. With 2 very nice starts and very nice Speed Figures his owners recognize talent but might be pushing too fast in the big class jump. His Speed matches well with others but handling the class is the big test. Can’t rule out
PP 12 FLOYD’S BOY(NY) 9/1 S Parris ( 36 – 2 – 2 – 2 – 6% )
Number 12 we have Floyd’s Boy trained by itcdla. The son of Maybry’s Boy x Miswaki x Tome Rolfe is 2 for 3 lifetime and has a 2nd place finish. He is also our 3rd horse who ran in the Grade 3 Television Stakes. His first race was 4.5 furlong MSW try at Mississippi. In the field of 14 Floyd’s Boy broke in 6th position stalking a length 3/4 off the lead mid way on the far turn jockey U Sanders gave him the nudge and Floyd’s Boy took off. He ended up winning by a close 1/4 length in a final time of :53 to score a 70 Speed Figure. Next out he moved up to Allowance level at Arkansas going 6 furlongs. In a very similar trip to his first race Floyd’s Boy stalked the pace and midway around the far turn he was given a nudge and grabbed the lead top of the stretch and held of any challengers to win by 1 1/2 lengths. The final time was 1:11 4/5 and he Scored a 75 Speed Figure. His last race was the Grade 3 Television Stakes at 5 furlongs. This time Floyd’s Boy broke a little further back then the last two starts and was sitting comfortably 4 lengths off the lead. This time he made his move he was driving hard with tons of kick but ran out of ground. He finished 2nd 3/4 lengths back posting another 75 Speed Figure. Floyd’s Boy looks to be sharp and in great form. He was able to be right there in a graded event and was able to repeat his speed while moving up in class. With this being a 6 furlong race I don’t see him running out of ground this time. Would like a jockey better then a 6% win but think the horse is good enough to overcome. My Win pick!
PP 13 FOREST BALAD(KY) 13/1 W Robinson ( 76 – 7 – 11 – 7 – 9% )
Lucky number 13 is Forest Balad a son of Forest Wildcat x Moon Ballad (IRE) x Irish River (FR) and trained by stalmanu. He has 3 life time starts with 1 win. His first race was an owner restricted Allowance race going 5 furlongs. 18 horse had made this field and Forest Balad was able to break out in 2nd and run pretty even all the way around to finish in 2nd only 1/4 length back while posting a 71 Speed Figure. In his second race his owners dropped him into the right conditions, a MSW at 5.5 furlongs where he went gate-to-wire being pressed the whole way winning in a photo finish. The final time was 1:05 3/5 and he posted a 66 Speed Figure. Last time out they tried him in a stakes event the Elk Bubba Memorial at 5.5 furlongs. Only 6 horse made it to the post for the race and Forest Balad was able to break out in 3rd 3/4 back. He ran another even race and ended up with a 4th place finish 1 1/2 back while scoring a 69 Speed Figure. Looking at the 3 races it seems he is still looking for consistency, might need couple races to hit his stride. The drop in Speed the last two races is a cause for concern and this might not be the right spot to get it back. Still this is a wide open field and he surely has a chance to get up if he can find his stride.
PP 14 BURNIN LOVE(ENG) 6/1 E N Tice ( 256 – 40 – 21 – 32 – 16% )
Our last entry is number 14 Burnin Love second horse trained by super18 and the 3rd choice at 6/1. Coming into this race with 2 career starts he is the son of Pivotal (GB) x Gone West x Nureyev. His pedigree is outstanding and could be why he is 3rd choice. His first race was an Allowance race in Dubai at 4.5 furlong where he broke last but was able to make up 3 1/4 lengths and win pulling away by 3/4 of a length in a final time of 52: 4/5. He managed to post a 71 Speed Figure in that race. For his second start his owner shipped him back to the states to run at Vermont in another Allowance race at 6 furlongs. Burnin Love broke last again dropping back 5 lengths, he was able to find another gear mid-way through and was charging to lose only by a 1/2 length. His Speed Figure dropped to a 68 for that race. Burnin Love is a fine horse with a closing running style, with all the speed in the race he could be flying late. The drop in speed in the second race coupled with the jump in class scares me off. If he digs down for some of that royal pedigree class it could pull him threw.
Final Thoughts:
After looking at this field, this years running is going to be right in line with the previous 8. It is going to be very close, very wide open and the winner I can’t see winning by more then 1 length tops. Also I will predict that the final time will be faster this year the the previous 2 years and we may even see the record race time get tied or broken! Any horse in this field can win this race and I for one am excited to see who the next rising star to come out of this race is going to be. My order of finish 12, 3, 6, 4. Good luck to all the owners and may your horse be with you…..