Lots of LUCK to win the Vermont Filly BB Juvenile!
Vermont BB Juvenile Filly Stakes
Grade II
Five and one half furlongs on the Fast Dirt Course
$250,000
Fillies, 2 years old
Stakes record – 2005 – Skippy, 1 :04-1/5, SPF 87.576
We have a great field here in the Pastures of Green State. There are a bunch of young ladies that like the front end and that should make for some excitement. Some of these young ladies are looking better and better and are really turning into solid race horses, so let’s take a look:
1 – COREY’S LUCK(KY) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK Rharfo1 Stables 7/1 RharfBeam3 9.3% C.Stalcup 44 – 3 – 1 – 3 – 7% 72.92 $ 33,005 N/A
( LIMEHOUSE x MR. PROSPECTOR x WHAT LUCK out of LUCK SLIDING) Two races with a Win and a second for this “Lucky” girl. This will be her first Stakes outing but she has shown good SPFs and improved in the second time out. She has jockey Stalcup in the saddle and he has been struggling a bit this year and may not be a big help. She is a speed burner that should love this post on the rail though. Should be a live ticket at the window.
 | 2 – HOMEFORTHEHOLIDAYS(JPN) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topicount Stables | 7/1 | Topicount2 | 14.8% | B.Knights | 35 – 4 – 2 – 1 – 11% | 68.94 | $ 21,840 | N/A |
( CAME HOME x A.P. INDY x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) out of DECEMBER SHADOW) One race and a relatively easy win for this filly trained by Topicount. She eased up a bit at the end and this may even be a better distance for her at this young age. She likes to get out front and should be jumping out the early lead along with COREY’S LUCKY. The inside post may help there as well as the guidance of Knights holding the reins who is quite capable. Should be in the mix.
 | 3 – DR STEEL(AUS) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TripleTime Stables | 50/1 | TripleTime | 6.8% | K.Youngblood | 40 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 10% | 58.86 | $ 13,484 | N/A |
(DR GREEN x CRAIGSTEEL (GB) x LOST SOLDIER) A little tough to handicap this girl as her past two of her three outings have been on off tracks. She finished third in the BOOM TICKLING Stakes last time out against a short field and may have some pretty generous Morning Line odds if you can jump on them early. Jockey Youngblood won’t hurt this girl as he can bring them around. Trainer TripleTime has to think that she can join in with the early speed in this race and keep in the hunt.
| 4 – APACHE MOUNTAIN(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBudgies9 Stables | 9/1 | BBudgies9 | 13.3% | F. Neely | 66 – 5 – 6 – 6 – 8% | 65.00 | $ 11,760 | N/A |
( GULCH x AFLEET x RIVERMAN) One race and a win for this BBudgies9 trained entry. She only ran against a field of 7 and only had a 65 SPF but that was all she needed. She is another in this race that loves the lead and it may get crowded up there. Jockey Neely hasn’t been too successful this year and may have a problem with the early traffic. Could go either way with this company.
 | 5 – REPEAT PERFORMANCE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out In Front Inc Stables | 4/1 | Metallinut | 10.0% | G.Bungard | 261 – 41 – 38 – 33 – 16% | 69.52 | $ 46,360 | 25 |
( AWESOME AGAIN x SECRETARIAT x BUCKPASSER) This will be the second Graded outing for this girl who faded to fifth after leading most of the race last time out. Trainer Metallinut has to believe that though she was passed in the stretch, she only finished a length and a half back in that race and a little improvement here could be enough. She has Bungard in the irons and he is one of the best at this track this year. Lots of horses up front could mess things up for this team.
| 6 – PERIO BREATH(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dentition *No Do Claima’s* Stables | 7/1 | DocTahg2 | 18.0% | S.Gravina | 321 – 51 – 56 – 49 – 16% | 68.59 | $ 72,840 | 22 |
( LAWYER RON x FORTY NINER x SECRETARIATout of PERIODONTITIS) This pretty chestnut filly has won both of her previous outings although her highest SPF was 68 and she may need a bit more here to contend. Trainer DocTahg2 knows how to saddle winners and has Gravina holding the reins so they should know how to get a bit more out of her here. She is a stalker who has the advantage of running behind the large group of speed horses here and may be able to run them down in the stretch.
 | 7 – BLOODFLOWERS(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winterfell Racing Stables | 4/1 | Lopo34 | 15.1% | B.Langhorne | 250 – 25 – 26 – 33 – 10% | 73.02 | $ 53,090 | 24 |
( POSSE x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR out of PRO CAT) This chestnut filly is a bit hard to figure as she has two nice races with quick SPFs but I’m not sure if she quite ready for her top 25 ranking yet. Trainer Lopo34 will learn a lot more about her in this race against this higher class group of fillies. They have Langhorne in the leather and he is more than capable of bringing this girl home at the front of the pack. She is another stalker that should benefit from the early speed.
 | 8 – BABELICUS(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcon12 Stables | 16/1 | Falcon12 | 12.8% | G.Blackmore | 142 – 12 – 10 – 20 – 8% | 67.87 | $ 23,160 | N/A |
( BRAHMS x PENTELICUS x SEATTLE SLEW out of CHEESY SLEW) After a disappointing first race for trainer Falcon12, this girl has won back to back races although she hasn’t run faster than a 67 SPF. She is another stalker that could do some damage if her speed keeps up. They have chosen jockey Blackmore for this run and he’s had his share of problems this year but could get a boost from this mount.
 | 9 – NOT E. GIRL(FL) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMD Stables | 36/1 | CMD | 12.4% | Y.Waymer | 56 – 4 – 2 – 1 – 7% | 67.36 | $ 23,000 | N/A |
( ESSENCE OF DUBAI x LITTLEBITLIVELY x TASSO out of NOT MUCH) A win and a second in two starts ain’t nothing to scoff at with this little chestnut filly. Trainer CMD definitely has her pointed in the right direction but will need to get her SPFs bumped up a bit. Jockey Waymer is in the saddle and has only four wins all year so could be more hindrance than help in this case. She likes to come from behind and that should help her here.
 | 10 – MAKES A POSITIVE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONEWORLD Stables | 12/1 | TheReason | 10.2% | F.Shaw | 124 – 14 – 14 – 12 – 11% | 78.92 | $ 54,300 | 30 |
( BROKEN VOW x EXPLOIT x RAHY out of THATSWHATILIKE) After a disappointing first race with a seventh place finish, this girl has won back to back races and come from way back to do it. Two back she ran a sizzling 78 SPF then fell back a bit to a 71 last time out but still gathered the win by a head at the wire. Trainer TheReason has reason to believe that this filly could be special and a nice ride but top jockey Shaw could really put her on the map here. She looks to be in a good spot and her 12/1 odds could make someone some money in this race.
 | 11 – CLEVER COFFEE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaNature TB’s ‘Organic & Homegrown’ Stables | 17/1 | MaNature | 7.8% | H.Wilmsmeyer | 47 – 1 – 2 – 4 – 2% | 69.94 | $ 16,500 | N/A |
( APTITUDE x JAVA GOLD x STRIKE THE GOLD out of GOLDEN CAPPUCINO) One race and a win for this chestnut filly with plenty of “GOLD” in her pedigree. She only ran a 69 SPF in that win but was pulling away at 4.5f and the extra distance here may do her good. Trainer MaNature has put jockey Wilmsmeyer in the irons and he has only won a single race all year. That could undermine what may otherwise be a good spot for this filly. I hope that he can be more of a guide and not as much of an anchor for this race.
| 12 – SAY NEW YORK SANDY(NY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OceanFront Stables | 47/1 | OceanFront | 12.4% | C.Wolff | 90 – 5 – 9 – 9 – 6% | 67.53 | $ 7,072 | N/A |
( SAY FLORIDA SANDY x DROUILLY x ASSERT(IRE) out of OLLIE’S CHUMPS) After a third place finish on a sloppy track, trainer OceanFront sent this girl out last time on a fast track and she proved that she can get it done on any type of dirt with a nice win. She may be in a bad spot here with lots of early speed in the race which she likes but being way out in twelve may make it tough to battle it out up front. Jockey Wolff could also be a problem with a limited number of wins this year. Lots going against her here.
| 13 – INCREDIBLE LAWYER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TG Stables | 15/1 | TG1 | 17.3% | O.Kopper | 42 – 3 – 6 – 3 – 7% | 73.37 | $ 32,310 | N/A |
( LAWYER RON x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x RAISE A CUP out of LATE RAISE) It took her three tries but she got her first win last time out with a quick 73 SPF. She seems to like to stretch it out and I wonder if this shorter race will be to her liking. Trainer TG1 has contracted jockey Kopper for this race and he needs a good race to get his stats up to somewhere close to average. This girls late closing style may help her with the races early speed and outside post.
 | 14 – WHY DO WE DIE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaif Stables | 9/1 | IH8U | 20.5% | K.English | 54 – 4 – 7 – 4 – 7% | 72.53 | $ 6,240 | N/A |
( MORE THAN READY x EASY GOER x ELOCUTIONIST) The Kaif Stables and their gaudy stats know how to bring these young ladies along and this girl is no exception. She has run one race with a snappy 72 SPF and a nice win. She looks to be ready to take on these girls if there is no bounce after that fast inaugural race. Jockey English is in the leather and has had his struggles this year but hopefully can use this girls late arriving style to run down the tiring front runners in the stretch to get into the mix at the end.
Morning Line = 5-7-1-2-6
Paz Picks = 1-?-?
I know that I get paid the big bucks to handicap these races and I hate it when one of my ponies is running and there is no pick for the top three. That being said, I really have no idea who will fare well in this race. They are all over the board here. There is lots of early speed, especially from the inside posts and they are likely to battle it out and tire each other out. There are a few that have only run one race and who knows how they will fare. Not only that but some of the young ladies that have run more than once have been running on off tracks. All in all, I really can’t make a pick here as it is truly just about anyone’s race. It should go a long way toward knowing which of these girls are going to be tough further along in the year. All of that being said, I am going to take COREY’S LUCK to win it all and let the chips fall where they may.
Good luck to all runners!
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