Misnamed Northern California Stake sees four go postward
One would expect that the Six Saratoga Bonanza would see a field of six at the venerable Upper New York racetrack, but alas that is not the case. Instead, this Bonanza is 3000 miles away and two fillies short. Despite the misnomer, the race promises to showcase some rising turf talent in the freshman filly division. The race is 5.5 furlongs in the Northern California turf course. The purse is a healthy $80k.
Breaking from the inside post is my own filly, Sin Nomine, who is 3/1 on the morning line . She is trained out of the bigmoose stable, and has yet to pick up her second lifetime win. Her maiden win was in a high-purse MSW at 6f on dirt, so clearly the 5.5 furlongs she will face here will not be too short for her. She is stakes-placed on turf, but it was her debut race and she posted a measly 57SPto lose by nearly 5 lengths. Sin’s latest turf effort two starts back at 6f in a stake saw her finish a game and closing fourth, but the 67SP earned that day does not bode well for a stakes victory here. However, her breeding (Distant View x Unbridled) does suggest she ought to improve as she ages. Sin has not-so-great jockey V Everett aboard.
The race favorite at 4/5 is Nonstop Flight, who will be running from the second post. Vampire3’s filly showed some success on dirt before being switched onto the grass two starts back. She really liked it, as evidenced by her prompt one-length win in a 5-furlong maiden at Kentucky and her followup win in a 4.5-furlong allowance at Rhode Island. Nonstop can run on the lead or right behind the pace, and she is the most likely candidate to pick up the win. This Forty Niner x Seattle Slew filly has shown class and speed in her two turf tries, and there is every reason to believe she’ll love the extra half-furlong she’ll get here. her trainer has obtained the services of well-respected jockey B Dickerson.
Irishgal’s Danzig Run is 2/1 on the morning line. Her mama, by Danzig out of a Pentelicus mare, never had much success on the racetrack but her daughter by Cherokee Run is doing mom proud. The striking roan filly has a pair of wins, a place, and a show on grass. One of those wins came in her last start, a 5.5f stakes in Nebraska that Danzig Run won by a half a length. This filly prefers to run a few lengths off the lead, which should set her up nicely in the race. However, despite her successes, she is vulnerable. The favorite has run 11 points faster than Danzig Run has to date, so she’s going to need to find another gear if she hopes to rack up win number 3 on Saturday. Jockey G Kernutt has a poor winning record but gets one out of every three mounts a top-3 finish.
On the far outside will start the field longshot, Scotian Tessa (5/1). Doguiec5’s light gray filly is the most lightly raced in teh field with 4 races under her girth. She spent her first three on-track appearances on dirt, but her switch to turf in her last start saw her break her maiden going 5 furlongs. This is a big step up, but her trainer must feel that the small field will let Scotian settle into higher-class company without all the pressure that might come in a larger race. It’s also a nice place to start stretching the filly out. Scotian is by Devil his Due out of the Cozzene mare Work T, who was retired after due to injury after just a few starts. In her last start Scotian was never more than 2 lengths behind the leader. If she duplicates that running style, and improves as she likely will, she could pick up a nice chunk of the $80k purse. P Graham, a fair jockey, has agreed to ride.
Watch for Danzig Run to go for the early lead, with Scotian Tessa settling right behind her. Nonstop Flight should relax about a length behind Scotian, with Sin Nomine trailing by up to five lengths before making a late run.