GIII Full Ahead Stakes
Horses 3yo and up 5.5f on firm turf
PP1 The Perfect Cure (IRE) 21/1– Cjwilson– On the rail we have a four year old son of Theatrical (IRE) out of the dam Oliver’s Rate (G-rated Conquistador Cielo x Hail the Pirates) with five wins in 22 starts. This guy is yet to break the 100 speed figure mark, but has run a high of 99 twice, one of which was his last race. He was claimed last start out for a tag of $150,000 from the Syosset3 barn. This horse is an example of trainer specialization. He has run his last seven races at 4.5 furlongs, all of which were bid races by his former trainer. He seems to be equally adept on dirt as turf, but his best results have come on turf. The sort distance of 5.5 furlongs should suit this guy well. He should show some early speed, and must have the lead to win as ever win has been in the wire to wire fashion. This is a nice claim, but he simply lacks the class to be very competitive this week with this field. I just do not think he can fire a 110+ which is what it is going to take to win this week.
Expected pace- On or near the lead.
Expected finish- 11th Not much hope this week.
PP2 Articulator (KY) 10/1- Turbo1– Next we have a scratch bred from More Than Ready out of a Cure the Blues mare with six wins in 20 starts. This four year old will be making his first start with graded company and has one stakes win back last September. His first six starts were on the dirt and had some success, but has been a bit better on turf, but not overwhelmingly so. He has a career best speed figure of 111 which he received last week at six furlongs in a restricted allowance win. This figure could be enough to win this week, but I just don’t see him running this big two weeks after his best career race. I am going to assume that he is sharp this week, and that is why Turbo1 is bring him back so quickly, but I do not see a repeat performance happening. This guy is a closer, but does not lie way back. Look for him to be mid pack and try to make a stretch run. If he can duplicate the 11 he has a short, but that is a very big if.
Expected pace- Closer, should be mid pack early.
Expected finish- 7th Has not been winning consistently in restricted allowance races, much better competition this week.
PP3 Rattlin Rebel (KY) 13/1– Buckbean sends out another scratch bred four year old from Perfect Soul (IRE) out of a Caro (IRE) mare with six wins in fifteen starts. This guy is a late bloomer not making his first start until his three year old campaign, and breaking his maiden in his third start. Since then he has shown steady improvement with a career best speed figure of 106 in March of this year at six furlongs. This is a one dimensional speed ball that must have the lead having never won from off the pace. The problem is that of the speed horses he is not the best. He has however, been in the lead in every one of his races with the exception of one outing that was on dirt. I do not think that he can get the lead this week, and I do not see him learning a new trick. He does have two stakes wins, but both were in shorter field races than this. I simply do not see him quite having the class to run a big enough race to have a shot this week.
Expected pace- On the lead, been in front of every turf race in his career
Expected finish- 10th He might get to the lead but probably can not carry it to the finish and will be backing up down the stretch.
PP4 Gone sharp Ted 11/1- Tcopyright– In the four hole we have another scratch bred, this being a five year old out of Gone West and a Sharpen Up (GB) mare with five wins in 37 starts. This guy has only stakes win and a second place in a G III last time out. The second place in the graded stakes is not quite as good as it seems though. There were only seven horses in the race and the field was pretty soft with the exception of the winner. He has a career best speed figure of 107 which is not going to get it done this week. This being his 38th career start I do not expect any great improvement, he is what he is. This horse is pretty flexible in that he can rate or be on the lead given any race conditions. He tend to drop out of races if he is not near the lead early and I don’t think he can stay up near the lead with insane speed duel that is going to be going out front early.
Expected pace- Near the lead, stalking
Expected finish- 8th Will not get near the lead and will be out of it early.
PP5 Rattleshirt 8/1– Stormborn2– Next we have another More than Ready sired five year old out of the blue hen dam Western Stormer (G-rated Storm Cat x Gone West) with ten wins in 28 career starts. Rattleshirt seems to be a fairly versatile runner being accomplished at distances from six furlongs to a mile. He has one graded stakes win back in his three year old season at one mile along with two other listed stakes wins. He is generally a closer running in mid pack early. He has a career best speed figure of 110 back in July of 2007 at seven furlongs. He has been shortened up as his career has progressed and he seems to be responding. I like the way this race sets up for him to pick off some tiring horses down the stretch as it should be insane out front. He might be a bit further back than usual early, but should be coming late.
Expected pace- Closer, should be about 4-5 back early.
Expected finish- 3rd Could run a huge race this week, upset special.
PP6 A Saints Day 9/2– irt- In post position six we have a five year son of A. P. Indy out of the he-mare All Saints Day (IRE) (F-rated Daylami (IRE) x Saint Ballado) with thirteen wins in 27 starts and earnings in excess of 750K. This guy has generally been a monster most of his career winning three graded stakes at distances ranging from five to six and a half furlongs. Generally the speed of the race, however he has won twice from just off the pace and that is where I expect to see him this week. I would think he should be the favorite this week, but he ran a monster effort last race out throwing down a 113 speed figure in a G III win in the Simon and Simon Cap. This race was five weeks ago so the bounce may not happen, but I do not see back to back career bests. I see no way he is not in the money unless he falls down or something. He is probably the best horse in the race, but I do not think this week sets up very well for him.
Expected pace- on or near the lead
Expected finish- 4th Might regress a bit after a huge effort last time out. Class of the field however.
PP7 Haloatrical (IRE) 9/2– Sjmeola4– This a five year old scratch bred son of Theatrical out of a Halo mare, but by the name I would assume you had that figured out. He has ten wins in 29 starts, including five stakes wins. He is a very versatile horse in that he has run 110+ speed figures on both turf and dirt, and might actually be a itty bit better on dirt. This is the speed of the race and should be in the lead, but has won a couple times from just off of the pace. If he can get out on an uncontested lead this race might very well be over. His career best speed figure of 114 that was run at six furlongs on the turf happened just this last March. I love the dirt to turf angle, as his last start was a 109 on the dirt, for this race. He has had four weeks of rest and I think he might just get that first graded stakes win this week.
Expected pace- On the lead. He is the speed of the race.
Expected finish- 1st Everything is lined up perfectly for his first graded stakes win.
PP8 Drunken Lullabies (IRE) 9/1– Blinkers- A six year old grey is next with nine wins in 31 tries and is a son of Daylami (IRE) out of the dam Rigidly Within Sea (F-rated Blushing John x Seattle Slew). He has seven stakes wins with four of those being graded stakes. The distance should be no problem as he has stakes wins from 4.5 to 7 furlongs. Time does seem to be catching up this guy as his last win came way back in November of 2006. He has been competitive, but his good efforts are becoming the exception and not the rule. His best speed figure is a 111 back in September of last year, and has been raced sparingly since. He has only raced twice this year, both of which were in February, so he could conceivably be sitting on a big race. He is generally a stalker who should be in the first group after the speed balls, and this does set him up nicely if he fires. He may not win, but he has shown enough in graded stakes lately that he certainly does belong here.
Expected pace- Stalker first group after the pace setters.
Expected finish- 9th Form has been off lately and he is getting a little long in the tooth. Outside shot to surprise.
PP9 Forest man (KY) 50/1– Crandyiii- The big big long shot is next. This youngster is still a three year old out of Forest Wildcat and the dam Mountain Greenery (G-rated Quiet American x Woodman). What to say here…this is a very nice three year old, but that is the key. He has two wins in twelve starts with one of the wins in an NW1x allowance race. He has faced three year olds only in a graded stakes back in March of this year and was a well beaten eighth place. He is a competent three year, but he is very overmatched this week against older horses. Even the best three year olds are going to struggle against older horses this early in the year. The 50/1 odds is off as I would put the true odds at closer to 150/1.
Expected pace- Stalker, but will not be close early.
Expected finish-12th– Needs to be racing against people in his own age class.
PP10 General’s Chariot 6/1- Proudtruth brings his multiple graded stakes winning six year out of Gone West and the he-mare Ambrosius (G-rated Storm Cat x Fappiano) with 20 wins in 46 starts and winnings in excess of 4.7 million. Even in the advanced stages of his career he is still a very good horse that is a model of consistency. He has an incredible 14 graded stakes wins, but has failed to find the winners circle in a graded stakes since last August. If there is such a thing as a deep closer in a short sprint, this is the guy. He has a career best speed figure of 111, but that was back in 2005. It appears that he has lost a step as he is not nearly as sharp in graded stakes as he once was. If you were ever curious as to what an ‘A’ rated sprinter would look like, here is one right here. At one point in his career back in 2005 he won an amazing five graded stakes in a row. I do not think he can get it done this week, but a win would not be shocking either.
Expected pace- Deep closer, should be picking off tired horses at the end
Expected finish- 5th Will pick up a check on pure class as his best days are in the past.
PP11 Williamette Valley (KY) 6/1– Super4– Next to last we have a four year old scratch bred son of Seeking the Gold out of a
Expected pace- Deep closer, will not be close early/
Expected finish- 6th Will be closing late, but will run out of room.
PP12 Red Light Run It (ENG) 9/1– Jimdscott– On the outside we have the lightly raced four year old scratch bred son of Dansili (GB) out of a Fappiano mare with four wins in only thirteen starts. This guy is a very late bloomer as he did not make his first start until May of his three year old season and broke his maiden a month later. Since that time however, he has improved rapidly and seems to be sitting on a breakthrough race this week. His career best speed figure of 107 is not the tops in the field, but he is still getting better and is due to fire a huge race any time now. He is pretty versatile in that he has shown the ability to stalk or close, and has won doing both. He does have two stakes wins and a respectable finish in the GI Japan Sprint last December as a three year old. This is the value bet in the field. He might not be quite ready to win this week, but certainly could.
Expected pace- Stalker
Expected finish- 2nd Could be the break out week for this one.