Breeders’ Bowl Distaff Preview

Here is the strong field of 14:

#1 Seasons Beatings (GR Simsters) 9/1

Experience: Will run the farthest she ever has this race. Regressed big time last out with the 11th place showing in the G1 Superfilly Handicap. Finished 11 back of the #4 so will need a big jump in form to make an impact. The back class is definitely there and not that far back as she won the G1 The Trucker just two races ago. That came after the 2nd in the G2 Bumblebee, so her graded races haven’t been disappointed at all.

Outlook: If the last one gets a line through it, she probably fits in here even with the slightly lower speed figures. I’m not sure I am so forgiving. Will need to jump too many to find herself on the podium. Will pass for others.

#2 Decisive Denile (Universal Racing Club) 9/1

Experience: That win in the G1 Very Vane two back is the 2nd highest speed figure in this field. The last out was a bit disappointing (It was a furlong longer) as she finished 8 back of the #10. Scaling back may be to her benefit as she had a 5 race winning streak at this distance this time last year. 

Outlook: If she runs back to what she is capable of at 9 furlongs will be a challenge to the HOF’er and have a legit chance for the podium. I like how she is back at her preferred distance and think she will be a definite threat.

#3 Elena Koshka (Drunken Jockeys Club) 45/1

Experience : This 3 year sure didn’t like the added distance last time as she faded to 10 back in the 12F route. She hasn’t won since February when she took down the G1 VT is 4 Lovers, but has come 2nd in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks and G1 Birmingham since then. All of these have come in 3 year old company so this is a big jump up for her.

Outlook: Has been a bit inconsistent lately and that was against much younger than these. Her speed figures are much lower than the best there, so I have to think the 45/1 odds probably are fair. Will pass, but as she matures could be back in this in later years.

#4 Seven Thousand RPM (GR Simsters) 7/1

Experience: Ran 2nd in this race last year with a career best figure. Last out, sure looks she has lots left in the tank with the victory in the G1 Superfilly. That speed figure is slowly creeping up throughout 2022, even though the results may not have been there. Not sure how the 9F is for this one as she has a history of giving up spots late.

Outlook: She sure is peaking at the right time and did well here last year. I don’t want to rule her out based on that, but like her better for a bottom podium result than the win. 

#5 American Pit (Northwest Racing Circuit) 26/1

Experience: Won her last two both in G1 events (Birmingham Stakes & Players Club National Oaks). Have to like those numbers coming in here, but they were at 10F and against 3 year olds. She came up a neck short in the G3 Denny Tario at today’s distance, so maybe the cut back in distance won’t help her out. Best figures seem slightly lower than the best here as well.

Outlook: If this race was at 10F I might consider her as a longshot. The 9F I think hinders what she does best and the step up in age is tough. She will also need to bump that speed figure up at a distance that probably isn’t her best. Pass.

#6 Gates of Tarth (GR Simsters) 10/1

Experience: The run in 2022 sure has been a good one. She hasn’t finished any worse than 2nd and that’s against pretty good top end talent. The second in the G2 Pitcher Molly was followed up by a victory in the G1 Bra Snap. Even with those at 8.5F looks like the extra ½ furlong will benefit her. Nice run and now facing the game’s best.

Outlook: Speed figures are slightly lower than the best here, but the results and the progression sure raise an eyebrow. The 10/1 odds are probably fair and I am really interested in how she handles them here. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a nice podium finish.

#7 Last Call Champ (MIDAS) 7/1

Experience: Interesting that her best results lately have been against the boys and not the girls. Those were a pair of seconds in the G2 Insulin Cup and the G3 Bull Durham. I guess if we go back to the summer she did get that 2nd in the G1 Very Vane so she fits with them here. Would liked to have seen a better effort 2 back as the co-favourite as she disappeared and finished well back of the #11 who is in here.

Outlook: A bit too inconsistent for me to think I want to back her at 7/1. If she runs back to her best races, sure she is in the mix, but I think that probably is a big if so I will pass and put my faith in others.

#8 Mind and Memory (MIDAS) 12/1

Experience: The back to back graded wins to start the season signalled this one may be in for a fantastic year, but she sure regressed in those next two. I like how she got back to allowance company to feel good about herself again and it looked like it benefitted her with that 2nd last out in the G1 Bra Snap. Not sure how the 9F will impact her as she has never run that far in her career.

Outlook: I feel the two wins to start the year may be the outlier, so have this one outside looking in. 11 for 17 is an eye popping win % though, so there is that chance she gets back to what made her so good in those and makes a run for the podium. I’ll go elsewhere, but a podium challenge wouldn’t be a surprise.

#9 Fake Crucifixation (GR Simsters) 34/1

Experience: 3 year old coming up to face older and to be fair she didn’t really fair that well going against the best in her age range. Maybe the 3rd place finish in the 2022 Equinics provided some hope for the future but really only has mustered up that 2nd in the G1 Chestnut Stakes going a mile. 

Outlook: Can’t support as if this field was limited to 3 year olds, I am not sure I would like her. The other few in her age group that are here I like better, so will pass. Odds seem fair, if not even a bit low.

#10 Cadet The Dread (Empire State Racing) 10/1

Experience: She tried this one last year as a 3 year old and ran 2nd last. A year of experience will make all the difference for her. I wouldn’t say this year started well for her, but the last two have seen a nice progression. The win last out in the G1 Personal Sign was a nice increase in her speed figure, not to mention a G1 victory.

Outlook: If she takes a little step off that last figure she will be right in the mix. I’m not sure I like that this race is at 9F as I think she is better suited to go a bit longer. For that reason I am not including her on the podium, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she is moving past horses late.

#11 URC Union Justice (Universal Racing Club) 9/1

Experience: Finished those allowance conditions to start the year, but the switch to graded stakes sure didn’t hinder her results. Interesting as her results kept getting better as her speed figures kept declining. Can’t take away the results though with a second in the G1 Personal Sign and a victory in the G1 Great Dame. 9F probably suits her better too.

Outlook: Would be nice to see the speed figures steadily increase rather than steadily decline, so I am a bit skeptical about picking her as I feel others are trending upward or just running higher figs. Will pass, but will listen to the argument about figures vs. results.

#12 Roads Collide (MIDAS) 28/1

Experience: Another 3 year old in here and she sure had a nice beginning to her spring with victories in the G1 Equinics and the G1 Bluegrass Oaks. Had regressed a bit since then, but did run her best figure of her career with that 2nd place showing in the G3 Northern Oaks last time out. 

Outlook: A nice figure, but is it an outlier and she is facing older, so can she take another step. Would be a tough ask, but the back class is there as a really top end 3 year old filly. Will pass and remember this name for next year.

#13 Nitro Queen (All-Stars Racing) 10/1

Experience: This season has been nice with 3 graded victories in a row. Last out, she got caught and came 3rd in the G1 Superfilly. The speed figures might be a bit under the best in here and will be interesting to see how the style fits with the extra ½ furlong. Did win the G2 The Canada going this distance, so maybe not that big a factor as I think.

Outlook: Have to love the results and if she gets an easier lead than she will be the one they are chasing down the stretch. Have to think she gets caught, but has every right in the world to hang on for a podium victory.

#14 Magical Morning (Empire State Racing) 3/1

Experience: MONSTER! What is there to say? This mare is 14 of 18 lifetime which at any level would be a thing of beauty. She has done it at the top level of the game. Magical has won 9 straight races, 8 straight graded and on the dirt is 10 for 11 in her career. All done at the distance today. Oh, let’s not forget she has earned $4.5 million. Just amazing!

Outlook: Back to defend her title today. How do you pick against one of the best ever? I sure am not and hope she can cap this run with a win today. Appreciate the legend when she is still running.

Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed – Career	Speed – Distance	Speed – Last 6M	Total Points
Magical Morning	122.9	122.9	119.1	42
Decisive Denile	118.2	118.2	118.2	38
Seven Thousand RPM	118.2	118.2	117.5	36
Last Call Champ	117.7	117.7	117.7	33
Nitro Queen	116.1	113.3	116.1	26
Cadet The Dread	118.6	103.7	115.2	26
URC Union Justice	115.1	114.9	115.1	24
Roads Collide	115	115	115	23
Gates of Tarth	114.2	109.1	114.2	16
Mind And Memory	116.8	—	111	15
Seasons Beatings	114.3	—	114.3	13
American Pit	110.2	106.1	110.2	11
Elena Koshka	107.2	107.2	107.2	8
Fake Crucifixion	109.1	101.8	109.1	7

Prediction

#14 : Just keeps rolling.

#2 : Gets back to the distance she likes.

#6 : Takes a step up.