Breeders Bowl TURF SPRINT

Welcome to the 2022 Breeders Bowl Turf Sprint here at Keeneland racetrack in Lexington, Kentucky. We’re all set for a beautiful day here at the track for the biggest day of the year. Track conditions are fast and firm so let’s stop messing around and take a look at the TURF SPRINT.

GROW GREEN – A 4 year old colt sired by PIERRO comes into today’s race on a 3 race winning streak. Including back-to-back G2 victories. GROW GREEN has been a win machine winning 11 of his 19 career starts. Our pace projection has him sitting towards the middle to back of the pack early but still within striking distance of the leaders. His closing kick might be the best in this field so we expect him to be a major threat at the wire. GROW GREEN goes off today at odds of 11/1.

WRITTEN IN THE OIL – is the first of the 3 year olds running in today’s race, and is sired by WRITTEN TYCOON. The TYEDYE trained colt is wicked fast coming out of the gate and could be leading this field at the first call. He tends to tire in the stretch and will have to find a new level of courage on the lead in this one in order to hold off a slew of other runners. His one try versus older resulted in a 12^th place finish in a G1 back in July. He’s up against in this one today as evidenced by his 39/1 odds.

GALILARYAS – The only colt produced by G1 winning mare ARYA’S STORM is sired by the undisputed turf king, GALILEO. If you toss out his try at a mile 2 back (even though it was a solid run), GALILARYAS has won 2 straight Grade 2 sprints at 7f with speed figures of 119 in both. We expect GALILARYAS to be sitting off today’s pace and come running at the finish to try and pick up the pieces. The question is, will the 6.5f distance today be enough for this guy to get to the wire in time?  He seems to really relish the 7/8ths distance. He looks like he’ll be a threat to pick up a check here if he runs his race and I would never underestimate a runner sired by Galileo on the world’s biggest stage. GALILARYAS goes off today at odds of 5/1.

CHRISTMAS PIRATE – A last minute entry, this 4 year colt is sired by SHAMARDAL. He made it into the field because of a Grade1 victory last January but has since been a disappointment, tallying only one in the money finish in his last 6 races. He is projected to sit mid-pack and hope to make a run in the stretch, however with his recent form, that might be a difficult task. His lifetime high speed figure of 112 probably isn’t enough to win this race either. CHRISTMAS PIRAT goes off at odds of 13/1.

JUNGLANO – A 5 year old gelding sired by little known JUNGLE POCKET comes into this race off his most disappointing race of the year, an 8th place finish in the SPRINT CUP on September 4th. He stayed within one length early but was 9th of 14 runners, but when the real running began, he just didn’t have enough left in the tank. He ended up only beaten 3 lengths that day, but I’m sure it was a disappointing finish for the #1 ranked turf sprinter. In his other 4 starts this year, JUNGLANO ran exclusively in G1 company, winning one race and finishing 2nd in 3 others. We think he’ll sit mid-pack again today and start moving up on the turn, challenging for the win or at least an on the board finish. A return to top form will make JUNGLANO tough to beat at odds of 5/1.

WAKE UP MAGGIE – This 5 year old gelding sired by U S NAVY FLAG was a late entry into today’s field, supplemented by trainer SJMEOLA only a couple days before entries were drawn. His inclusion in today’s races ensures a quick pace up front as he’ll likely battle with WRITTEN IN THE OIL up front early. This will mark his first venture into the G1 ranks and that has to be a concern but you can’t argue with his 4 wins from 6 starts this season. The key will be how he responds when coming down the stretch. WAKE UP MAGGIE goes off at odds of 7/1.

YAWN LIMON – The 2^nd 3 year old in today’s race is sired by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT. This colt has been racing exclusively at the stakes level this year, picking up victories in 2 open stakes and the G1 THE TOO YOUNG TO BEAT OLDER HORSES STAKES. Ironically, the name of that G1 triumph might be very telling as this one is facing his elders for the first time in a very difficult spot. We expect YAWN LIMON to be trailing this field early and then hoping for a clear path coming down the stretch. He will most likely need to significantly improve in order to take down this accomplished field of turf sprinters. YAWN LIMON goes off at odds of 27/1.

WASH RINSE REPEAT – A 4year old gelding sired by elite stallion SEA THE STARS looks to add on to his fantastic season in the BB TURF SPRINT. This LENNY entry is only a neck away from coming into this race with back-to-back G1 victories, but was just not able to quite get up in time last time out in the G1 THE SPRING CUP. He likes to sit just off the pace and make his run turning for home, and we project him to be sitting 6th or 7th early and then trying to pounce in the stretch. He is a legit contender to take home the top prize today and if he runs like he did in this year Equinics (an eye popping 123 SF), this field might all be staring up at him. WASH RINSE REPEAT goes off today at odds of 8/1.

MINESHAFT IS READY – This 5 year old horse is sired by MINESHAFT and is out of a MORE THAN READY mare. He got off to a rough start this year with back-to-back 9^th place finishes in February and May before coming back this summer with much better success. MINEHSAFT IS READY scored an impressive G1 victory in THE MGD SPECIAL while running a career best 116 SF. He followed that up with a solid if not spectacular 3^rd place finish in a G2 in September. He should be forwardly place in today’s contest but will need to revert back to his G1 winning form to hang on for today’s prize. He is perfect at this 6.5f distance on the turf though. MINESHAFT IS READY goes off today at odds of 10/1.

MIGHTY CONAN – The most experienced runner in today’s race with 25 career races (also CHRISTMAS PIRATE) is sired by TEOFILO. After beating older in a G2 mile as a 3 year old, WAR EMBLEM had to believe he had a very special horse, but things didn’t go as expected as CONAN lost his next 5 races. Since going back to sprints, MIGHTY CONAN has regained his top form this season winning a G1 in March and finishing top 3 in two other G1s. We don’t foresee CONAN being too far back in the early stages of the race but fear others might have a better late kick heading for home. MIGHTY CONAN goes off today at odds of 6/1.

PERIL THE FIRST – The last of the three year old’s going today is sired by DARK ANGEL out of G1 winning mare, IN HONOR OF ABBY. He is easily the most lightly race participant in today’s race with only 8 career starts, but has been improving nicely in the speed figure department lately and could surprise at a big price. Overall, his lack of a graded stakes win is troublesome, but his improving pattern and pristine record of 5 wins and 3 seconds in 8 races is very impressive. It might nowt be his year this year, but PERIL THE FIRST could be a major player in the turf sprint division in 2023. PERIL THE FIRST goes off today at odds of 19/1.

PLOT LINE – a 4 year old gelding sired by NOVELLIST comes into today’s race with an impressive record. He has won half (9) of his career races but 4 of those were claiming races. PLOT LINE is the classic rags to riches story. He was snagged by trainer AT THE WIRE for $75k this past February and has done nothing but impress by going on to win a G1 in June. Our pace projection has him forwardly placed early but giving way late. Still an incredible story! PLOT LINE goes off today at odds of 15/1.

GET MY MONEY RIGHT – A 4 year old gelding sired by I AM INVINCIBLE comes into this race off a G1 triumph in the SPRINT CUP on September 4th. He sat mid-pack, but not far from the lead that day, and we envision him sitting in a similar position today. He will be looking to score his 2nd consecutive G1 victory and his 4th career graded stakes race in his 1st Breeders Bowl attempt. Despite being the #3 ranked turf sprinter in the world, he may need to step it up one more notch to topple this incredibly deep and evenly matched field. GET MY MONEY RIGHT goes off at odds of 13/1.

KRIEGER ON KRIEGER – Another 4 year old gelding represented by sire I AM INVINCIBLE is the 2^nd entrant for LENNY. Name inspired by the fantastic adult cartoon ARCHER, KOK comes into this race off a fast closing 2^nd place finish in the G1 LONGCHAMP SPRINT. Our pace projection sees KRIEGER ON KRIEGER rating towards the rear of this field early and making a strong run in the final furlong. He might be better at 5-6 furlongs, so we’ll see if he can maintain his wicked closing kick for an extra sixteenth of mile in this one. KRIEGER ON KRIEGER goes off at odds of 10/1.

PadreBri’s Virtual Race Pace Projection

I ran the numbers through my pace system and here are the projections for the first quarter mile. The first half mile, and the finish.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL RUNNERS!!