Middle Jewel Stakes

The colt skipped the Bluegrass Derby in favor of the DelPenn Derby, where he ran a well-beaten third behind a Zewango trainee and Alydar Again’s stablemate WSOP. AA is perfect at 9.5f, and if that decent third in the DelPenn race is any clue, AA appears to be getting back in shape. Campaigned by a very crafty trainer, this colt could turn in a surprise performance.

Awesome Again x North Vote (Northern Baby)

Shetan is the most accomplished of the Topicount Trio at 9.5f with a stakes win and a G2 second by a nose (lost by a nose) as well. With a pair of 104s at this clearly-preferred distance, he must be considered a strong threat. His ability to stalk or rate sure doesn’t hurt.

Storm Cat x Bucephalus (Fusaichi Pegasus)

Panhandling a arrived in Maryland by way of a superb win in the Chief Snow in sunny California. The colt is a confirmed frontrunner with a strong tendency to actually hang on in the stretch when it counts. If he isn’t out front at the first call, count him out, but if he is, Dixiedotco just be picking up yet another big win.

A.P. Indy x Heaven’s Gate (Seeking the Gold)

Blues is nearly impervious to failure. Six starts, six top threes, and he’s continually posting some big figures. Had too many horses to try to move around in the Derby to run better than fifth, but racegoers were impressed by his strong stretch run. Should benefit from the smaller field, and while he’s not tested at 9.5f, with a superb win at 9 and an excellent third at 10, there’s no reason to think he won’t love it.

Fusaichi Pegasus x Nureyev

The second of the Topicount Trio, Tap Dances chose the Bluegrass Derby to post his slowest SP since July of his 2yo season. A poor showing indeed for a horse many considered an excellent candidate for the rose blanket. Surely he’ll have bounced back into his pre-race form and be ready to run fast. Big concern is his preferred running style. Both 100+ SPs came in wire to wire wins; with Panhandling a faster frontrunner, Tap Dances has his work cut out.

Kingmambo x Swingtime Sal (Danzig)

The hero of the 2007 Breeders Bowl Juvenile hasn’t been quite living up to his 2yo exploits. All hope is not lost, however. Daisy finally hit his first 3-digit speed figure in the Derby, and was less than seven lengths out of the win. Has a lovely come from behind style of running. I suspect he’ll enjoy this distance immensely, and we should see a much-improved placing this time around.

Afleet Alex x Rhino Daisy (Affirmed)

From #27 and last qualifier in the final seconds of Derby entries to #1 in the division and 2008 Derby champ is a big leap, but Doc’s horse managed the feat with aplomb. The 3-length win is proof enough. Kissin did it from a mid-closing position, moving into first with a strong move in early stretch. He didn’t win by so much that a major regression would be expected. If he can pull off this one, the hubbub in New York in three weeks will be huge.

Street Cry x Kissin’ Cousin II (Sadler’s Wells)

His big brother (Lucky’s Capital) skipped the Middle Jewel last year in favor of a shot at the New Yorker, but Mash has something to prove this year. He ran a superb fourth in the Derby, beaten just five lengths and closing from well back. He’s a G1 winner at 9.5, and should benefit from the smaller field and shorter distance. Big question is, how will he handle his fifth race in 10 weeks?

With Approval x Dandy Delight (Kris)

Last of the Topicount Trio and unarguably the most accomplished overall. Mesa was second in the Derby, and has a great 9f G1 win on his record (the Florida Derby). Have to love a horse so inexperienced yet so darn good routing. Really like him here, his preference for sitting just off the pace will serve him well.

Sky Mesa x Bayou Cajun (Fusaichi Pegasus)

Roman went from a huge Corkscrew (G1) win to a dismal Derby twelfth. Not a terrible surprise, given his propensity for running big every other race. The good news for his connections is this race should, based on past form, be a big one from the colt. Should hang out just off the lead, and take over going around the turn if all goes as planned.

Roman Ruler x Lady Arc (Seattle Slew)

No rainclouds in the Maryland forecast makes Pro Mon’s trainer a very sad one. Pro is a poster-colt for the Derby lock prep system, as he would not be here were it not for some lucky rain in Dubai on Sand Castle Derby day. The nw3l-eligible colt actually is a decent runner, with G2 and G3 placings on his resume to complement the G1 Sand Castle win. Should appreciate the drop in distance, and might benefit from the quick turnaround and lack of effort he put in on Derby day.

Maria’s Mon x Pro Cat (Storm Cat)

Second in the Chief Snow behind Panhandling, Trumpet earned his way in the hard way. His only G1 start ended in failure as he ran a comparatively slow 92 in the Wooden Indian, but the Chief Snow indicates that G1 was more an aberration. Really like him stretching out an extra sixteenth, and have to like him with the extra week’s rest compared to the Derby starters. Plus, what a beauty of a classic pedigree this colt carries.

Awesome Again x Forty Niner

And we have the third place finisher in the Chief Snow as well. Will need to keep a closer eye on that race in the future if more horses use it as a Middle Jewel launch pad. Very Funny wasn’t laughing when he lost by nine in California, but hey, a third is a third. Most concerning with this colt is his lack of a triple-digit speed figure on the resume. While continuing to route makes sense with this horse, when you have an undefeated sprinter you really have to wonder if shortening up might help him get back to the winner’s circle.

It’s No Joke x Initial Corn (Belong To Me)

Now under new management, Wireless returns from an uncharacteristic 11th place on the hunt for revenge. Can’t believe 10f is too long, but dropping back a bit in distance sure won’t hurt the colt. He’ll need to stay a bit closer to the lead to really have a strong chance, but will be easier in this smaller field. Expect him to run much better than he did in the Derby.

Smarty Jones x Eye of Singularity (Danzig)