GIII Dallas Stud Command Stakes

3yo Fillies 7 furlongs on fast dirt

PP1- Street Buda (KY)-5/1– Lacostra- On the rail we have a daughter of Street Cry out of the outstanding racing he-mare Storming Sal (B-rated Storm Cat x Danzig) with two wins in ten career starts.  She broke her maiden in her second career start, but then reeled of six so so efforts, but has really found her legs in the last two races with back to back speed figures of 99.  She is one of the closers in the race, and should be coming at the finish.  Early in her racing life she was much more of a speed horse and was usually near the lead, but as she has backed away from the lead a dramatic increase in speed figures followed.  I do think she will run a big race, but seems to not quite get there most of the time.  This filly runs like she might want some more ground and I would expect her to get better as she stretches out to two turns.

Expected pace- Closer

Predicted finish- 3^rd – Will be in the mix, but never quite seems to get there, although a win would not be shocking.  Absolutely an improving filly.

PP2- Buieman (CAN)-5/1- Outerbanks- Next we have a daughter of Buie (who in the heck is that you ask?  A son of Fappiano) out of the racing mare Barb’s Martini (G-rated Turkoman x Woodman) has three career wins in eleven starts.  This lady waited until her fourth start to break her maiden and ran her first 90 speed figure in March of this year.  She is horribly consistent having nine of eleven top three finishes which means she is always in the mix, but seems to lack the elite speed figures that are needed to win a graded stakes. Her breeding is built for speed and I think she is going to be best at the classic sprint distance of six furlongs, but seems to handle seven well enough.  There is enough turf in the pedigree to warrant a shot on the green stuff.  Many times when a horse is very competitive, but seems like they should be running bigger a surface switch could be the answer.  While the string of top three finishes looks great it has happened mostly against very short fields of less than 6 horses.    

Expected pace- Closer/ stalker

Predicted finish- 5^th– Been doing well against soft fields, and will struggle this week.

PP3- Baseball Fever (KY)-5/2- Dundey- This Storming Fever filly is out of the racing mare Baseball Babe (G-rated Grand Slam x Northern Dancer) has managed an impressive seven wins from sixteen starts. The girl has had a very rigorous schedule by racing almost every three to four weeks since she was two and I think the results of that are starting to show.  After a tremendous 102 speed figure in March she has had two lack luster performances of an 89 and 86 with one win.  While the 102 is the top speed figure of the field it is an outlier in a serious of mostly low to mid 90 performances.  She is one of the true speed horses of this race and should be geared up and on or near the lead.  She has won from the lead several times, but only when the lead was uncontested.  There is no way she goes off the front by herself and dictates the pace.  This filly looks like she is crying out for some time off and I think her performance will show that this week.

Expected pace- On the lead, probably the fastest horse in the race.

Predicted finish- 6^th– Will be out front early but will be backing up down the lane.

PP4- Sick Heart River (KY)-5/1– Zwango brings in his daughter of Sky Mesa out of the racing mare Fall From Grace (G-rated Distorted Humor x Private Account) with only one win in eight starts.  This is an interesting decision from the owner in that her best races have been routing, and has yet to crack 90 in a sprint race.  While that may be daunting enough, she has not won a race other than her maiden and has yet to carry her speed to the finish in short field restricted allowance races.  Her two best speed figures are somewhat throw outs in this race as they were at 8.5 and 9 furlongs and were in restricted stakes races.  This looks like a filly that is going to be very good, but needs to be placed in races that give her a chance to succeed and this spot is not one of them.  She has shown that two turns is needed for her best work, and her speed simply is not going to be good enough at the sprint distance. 

Expected pace- On or near the lead

Predicted finish- 7^th– Speed may be good at a route, but will not be able to carry that speed the distance and will be tiring late.

PP5- Danetoyou (AUS)-4/1- Japrufrock- Next we have a graded stakes winner out of Dane Shadow and the racing mare Forty Begone (G rated Forty Niner x Belong to Me) with six wins in eleven starts.  I normally shy away from the chalk in races like this, but not this time.  This horse is coming off of a huge win in April in a G II with a 101 speed figure and the race just sets up perfectly for her.  She will be near last early, but there is plenty of early speed to set it up for a closer like her.  She is by far the most accomplished horse in the field with five stakes wins already in her career.  She has also been very good at 7.5 furlongs and appears that in time she might make one heck of a miler, perhaps stretching out to nine furlongs or so.  She has yet to run a route of ground, but her running style should facilitate that even when her pedigree doesn’t necessarily. 

Expected pace- Deep closer

Predicted finish- 1^st– Will be flying at the end, and should win by daylight.

PP6- Silver Rules (FL)-11/1– Acote– Next we have a daughter of Peace Rules out of the he-mare Ghostly’s Home (G- rated Came Home x Silver Ghost).  Apparently a Mr. Prospector family reunion has occurred in the pedigree in this girl as this is one of the more inbred lines I have seen in some time.  She is the most inexperienced in the field, but seems to be in the right place and right time in this race, and that 11/1 morning line is some very good value.  This is the other closer and both wins have come via that style.  I would not usually expect much of a horse with this little experience, but her style sets up well and she seems to be on the improve.  Her last race out she ran a respectable fifth against older fillies and mares with a career best 94 speed figure.  This race does not expect to be much more difficult than that, and I think she moves forward off of that race and is in contention.

Expected pace- Closer will be coming late but not quite the bets closer.

Predicted finish- 2^nd– This girl is going to surprise this weekend even with the banjo playing in the background.

PP7- Midnight Jewel (KY)-5/1- Marksund– In post seven we find a daughter of Mingun (A.P. Indy) out of the mare Purple Stars (E-rated El Corredor x Polish Numbers) with two wins in fourteen starts.  She appears to be a seven furlong specialist as her top two speed figures have come at that distance and those include one stakes win.  Midnight Jewel is generally a stalker and should be close to the pace but not on the lead which could set her up nicely.  I do not think she can win this week as she does not appear capable of running a big enough race.  There is no reason however, why she can not pick up a check.  She has raced a lot averaging a race a month since she started.  This generally leads to short careers, but she seems to be handling it well enough. 

Expected pace- Stalker

Predicted finish- 4^th– Will be in the money, but no real shot to win.

PP8- Making Silver (KY)-14/1– Cheyenne15– On the far outside post we find a daughter of Silver Deputy out of the racing mare Empirical Evidence (F-rated Empire Maker x Storm Cat) with one win in eleven starts.  This filly is coming back down to sprinting after routing since last October.  This might be the wake up call this one needs, but not in a graded stakes race.  Her previous stakes attempts were nothing short of disastrous being beaten a combined 31 lengths in three tries.  She generally prefers a stalking on dirt, but displays much more early speed on turf.  My gut tells me she is a turf sprinter as her speed seems to be a bit better on turf.  I think there is some talent in this lady, but she is in a tough spot this week.  I think some more distance/ surface experimentation is in order, but not in a graded stakes. 

Expected pace- Stalker

Predicted finish- 8^th– Not a got spot for this one this week.