Three year old fillies tackle a mile in Fantastic Ollie Handicap

This week’s feature race in Virginia is the fourth annual Fantastic Ollie Handicap. The race showcases three year old turf fillies, and they will go one mile on turf for a shot at the $45000 purse. The track is rated as firm for this event. The race has a history of well matched fields, and has generally favored the closers in a field. Last year’s running was won by longshot Booyah For You(KY), coming from eight and a half lengths off the pace at the half to nip race favorite Liberty Rain(IRE) by a head at the wire. This year’s race has drawn a field of eight fillies, and once again, the morning line odds are tight for this running. The race favorite is going at 5/2, backed by four others sporting odds of 5/1 or better. A pair of 7/1 bids, and the race longshot at 35/1 round out this solid field. This should make for some modest payouts at the betting windows, worth a fair profit to the best handicappers. The last two runnings have been won by speeds in the low 90s, and this is generally a more slowly paced race. Average speeds here fall right in those lines, and this one should come right down to the wire.

PP 1) Shootforthemoon(KY) Sired by Malibu Moon, Trained by sjmeola6. Shootforthemoon(KY) makes her fourteenth career appearance in this race. This is her fourth try in stakes competition, and she is still looking for her first win at this level. Overall in her first thirteen, she has run to a mark of 3-3-2-1-3, fielding a best speed of 93.0 in her final race of last season. Her last start was a seven furlong stakes race in Ontario, where she held position throughout, finishing fifth of five in a very tightly contested race. She has been primarily a dirt runner, with only two previous starts on turf, resulting in a win and a last place finish. She stretches out to a mile here for the first time since last Autumn, and the distance was also a mixed bag for her, with a second and sixth to show in a pair of dirt races at a mile. Recently she has been trying a somewhat deeper closing style, but her best success has come from closer to the front of the midpack. Her close has been fairly consistent, but it has had trouble getting her there, especially in the hgiher levels of competition she has faced this season. Her optimal striking distance seems to be just over two lengths at the half, and she has been running from much deeper recently. There is some good early speed here, and if she takes the leisurely break she has in her last few, she’s going to face a steep climb in the second half here.

PP 2) Rex’s Debacle(KY) Sired by Cozzene, Trained by mardigras. Rex’s Debacle(KY) makes only career start number seven here, and enters this one as the race longshot. This will be her second try at stakes, and she is still looking for her first taste of stakes glory. Her first six starts have resulted in a 1-1-1-0-1 record, showcasing a top speed number of 80.4 in her final start of last season. Her only start this year was an eight and a half furlong stakes on a high class New York track, where she faded throughout, finishing third in a field of four. Four of six starts have been on turf, and they have accounted for all her earnings, and decidedly better speed numbers. She has a place and a show in two starts on turf in the mile range, and she looks to be more comfortable in the longer races than she has been in her sprints. She runs as a midpack closer, and her close has been about a 50/50 proposition so far, showing good form in one race, then no ambition at all in the next. Her best runs have generally been followed by bounces, comparable to the one she experienced in her last race. The good news is that she should be at the top of that cycle here. She’s shown a marked improvement in speed in her last two, also a positive, but her top speed so far is still below the average speed of several in this field. She is going to need to find some extra jump to be a factor late in this race.

PP 3) A Kirbywinner(IRE) Sired by Danehill Dancer(IRE), Trained by mustwin. A Kirbywinner(IRE) takes the gate for her twelfth career start in this race. She has performed well in four prior stakes tries, but is still looking for that elusive first win at this level. She sports a career mark of 4-2-1-3-0, capping her speeds with a top figure of 90.4 in her last run. That race was an eight and a half furlong stakes on an off track in Connecticut, where she finished a hard closing second in a field of four. Outside of her two year old debut, she has raced strictly on the turf, and she has never finished worse than four on the grass, though the biggest field she has faced has been nine horses. The mile range has arguably been her best, with two wins and a place in three tries in this distance range. She is a deep closer, and her close has been exceptional, showing excellent form in all of her turf starts. She has been steadily improving her speeds, and though she hasn’t hit the big numbers yet, she’s headed in that direction. Both of her last starts have been on off tracks, and it has affected the power of her close. Moving back on to firm turf, she could be set to surprise a few here. With the depth and consistency of her close, she might be a good bet to pad those trifecta boxes at 7/1 odds.

PP 4) Ara Pacis(FR) Sired by Layman, Trained by astinator0. Ara Pacis(FR) enters this one as the race favorite as she makes her eighth career start. This will be her first stakes start, earned by virtue of back to back victories at open allowance level, where she really ramped up her game. She brings a 4-1-0-1-0 record to the table from her first seven, boasting a field high top speed of 101.9 earned two starts back. Her last race was an open allowance at this distance in Maine, where she took a six horse field of closers gate to wire for a length and three quarters victory. Six of seven starts have been on turf, all of those at a mile or better and she has four wins and a place to show for it. She has won three of four starts in this distance range, with the only exception being her maiden debut last year. She generally likes to run from the head of the midpack, but she is not afraid to challenge the early lead if she gets the chance. She has found herself threatening early in four of her last five, and went on to win three of those. Here she faces something that she is not really used to, with good early speed up front, and that could put her in a position she hasn’t had much experience in so far in her career. She may find herself deeper than she likes at the half in this one, and it will be interesting to see how she reacts as they head into the second half.

PP 5) Green Oasis(KY) Sired by Dehere, Trained by michap. Green Oasis(KY) takes the gate for career start number eleven in this race. This will be her third try at stakes level, and she is still looking to put herself in the winner’s circle in stakes competition. Her ten career starts have seen her run to a record of 3-2-2-1-1, with a best speed figure of 90.3 earned in her first start of this season. Her last start was a nine furlong stakes on an off track in Connecticut, where she made up over four lengths down the stretch before settling for second in a field of four. After a pair of dirt runs to start her career, she switched to turf for her last eight starts, missing the trifecta only once since the switch, that being in a Grade I effort early this year. All of her turf starts have been at a mile or better, and she has shown herself capable out to nine furlongs. I this distance range, she has two wins and four top three finishes in five starts. She is a deep closer, and her close has been fairly consistent, and she has shown the ability to chew up large chunks of ground in the second half. Her Grade I run early this season seemed to take a lot out of her, and she hasn’t shown the same form since. Her last run showed a bit of a turn around for her, but that run was on an off track, which generally offers a somewhat slow pace. She faces a larger and faster field here, and she is going to need to find some more speed to run some of these fillies down late.

PP 6) Redoute’s Rocks(AUS) Sired by Redoute’s Choice(AUS), Trained by jockeymax1. Redoute’s Rocks(AUS) gets set for her eight career run in this race. She is the only prior stakes winner in this field, boasting three previous stakes wins, with her most recent coming in her first start of this season. She carries an impressive 5-1-1-0-0 record into this one, with a best speed of 93.7 earned in her last start. That race was a stakes at this distance in North Florida, where she gave up the lead late to finish third in a field of seven, after coming off an three month idle stretch after her first run of the season. Like many here, she made her maiden debut on dirt, but she responded to a switch to turf by reeling off five straight victories. The seven to seven and a half furlong range was her bread and butter last year, but both starts this year have been at a mile, and she has a place and a show, as well as back to back career best speed figures. She is a rocket from the gate, liking to take control early, and she has shown herself more than capable of holding on to it, even when challenged early. She is the only breakout early speed here, and that could be a real advantage for her, allowing her to set up a decent cushion as they cross into the second half. While there are fillies here showcasing higher speed numbers, she has improved with both starts this season, and she is back into the regular rotation after her long rest early this year. She is more than capable of surpsing them all here, and she’s another for your trifecta boxes at 5/1 odds.

PP 7) Perfect River(KY) Sired by Perfect Soul(IRE), Trained by firfight. Prefect River(KY) graces the track for the sixth time in her career in this race. This will be her forst try at stakes competition after spanking an A4L field last out to complete her step up thorugh her conditions. She boasts a 4-1-0-0-0 record in her first five, notching a top speed of 100.2 in her last race. That start was an eight and a half furlong A4L at a top flight Kentucky track, where she destroyed a field of ten by three lengths behind a dominating second half run. All five career starts have been on turf, all run at a mile or better. She is a perfect four for four in the mile to mile and a half range. She runs as a midpack closer, and as her race record indicates, she has been more than consistent in her first five starts. Two questions pop out here as she comes into this one on Saturday. First is the fact that her speed in her last was here career best by nearly eight points, with her other three runs this season all hovering around the low 90s in speed. Was it just a fluke, or is she ready to really come into her own here as we approach the second half of the season. Secondly, she has never found herself out more than three and a half lengths at the half in any of her starts, and that could well be a situation that changes here, leaving the question of how she will react to a deeper hole running into the second half. If she can duplicate her last, she will be a serious threat late here, as she should have plenty left to make up the extra cushion.

PP 8) Unbridled Blue(JPN) Sired by War Emblem, Trained by rocket27. Unbridled Blue(JPN) sees action in her eleventh career start here. This will be her second stakes run, and she is still seeking that first win in stakes competition. Her first ten have seen her put up a 2-3-2-2-1 record, with her speed topping out at 99.6 two starts back. Her last race was an eight and a half furlong stakes outing on an off track in Connecticut, where while running a nice race, couldn’t make up any ground in the second half, finishing third by three in a field of four. She has spent most of her career on dirt, before moving to turf in her second start this season, and in three turf starts, she has come near to doubling her earnings. She has been routing since her third career start, and in three turf starts in this distance range, she has a win, a place and a show. She is another filly in this field that likes to run from the head of the midpack, but her close has been an up and down thing at best. Her top speed figure is a career best by nearly eight full points, and she wasn’t able to duplicate in her last. That was, however, an off track, which has not been good to her when she has run on it. She has only shown any real second half jump in one of her last two of her last several, though those two were both mile runs on firm turf. She shows a lot of potential, but I am going to withhold judgement till I see if she can step up her game again in a field of this calibre.