Woodpecker’s Edge Handicap
Woodpecker’s Edge Handicap |
1 | INDY GHOST HUNTER(KY) | 6/1 | ||||
2 | DREAM THIEF(KY) | 5/1 | ||||
3 | RUMBLE JUMBLE(KY) | 12/1 | ||||
4 | TO THE CHOIR(KY) | 7/1 | ||||
5 | ALINOVA(KY) | 10/1 | ||||
6 | THE BEGINNING(KY) | 8/1 | ||||
7 | A LOVELY CITY(AUS) | 9/1 | ||||
8 | ANOTHER SHOT(KY) | 7/2 | ||||
9 | ALYDARZAPPER(KY) | 8/1 | ||||
10 | NAVAJO WELLS(KY) | 5/1 |
Welcome to todays feature race from South Carolina, the Grade III Woodpecker’s Edge run over the Mile turf course for the fillies and mares.
Lets take a look at the runners one by one-
INDY GHOST HUNTER(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x A.P. INDY x NORTHERN DANCER) Certainly bred to get at least this trip, she’s done all her winning so far on grass and all bar her maiden at 8f or more. She has finished second this year in the Panhandle Oaks, a Grade III but to date has no stakes wins. At this stage of the season I would expect the winner of a 3 Year old Graded race to run at lest 100 and that’s another feat she’s yet to accomplish.Still she has a chance and I would expect to see her try and get out front early and try to hold on. Should make the top five, chance of a win. DREAM THIEF(KY) (CAT THIEF x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x SUMMER SQUALL) Looks to be bred more for dirt than turf but has split her wins equally betwee the surfaces. Should like about 9f on breeding but has yet to even reach a 95 sp and hasn’t really looked like doing so. Finished no better than fifth in either of her graded tries and the 5/1 on the morning line look generous to say the least. Will have to run some 10 sp points better than she ever has to win this and I just can’t see it. She may prove me wrong but she looks like an allowance horse to me and this will be too much today. RUMBLE JUMBLE(KY) (PLEASANT TAP x WOODMAN x DIXIELAND BAND) Bred to get 10f at least she is one of the less experienced runners in the field. With her win over 9.5f looking barely enough distance last time, backed up by her previous two runs where she was closing at the finish, I don’t see how the drop to a mile will help her today. Clearly plenty of improvement left and looks like she could easily become a good graded runner but surely at 10f. Expect her to close late but for the leaders to be too far ahead. TO THE CHOIR(KY) (PULPIT x STORM CAT x LEMON DROP KID) The least experienced runnerin the field and only run on turf so far despite a pretty dirt based pedigree (although both DS and DDS get plenty of turfers) and put up a pretty impressive run latest to get second a stakes in a 96 sp on only her third run out. Not sure she’ll get much further than this so keeping her to a mile just now seems sensible and with only average improvement I expect she can run 100+ today. That will put her right in the mix and sheshould make the top three at least and has a good chance of a win. ALINOVA(KY) (THEATRICAL(IRE) x WAR CHANT x STORM CAT) Bred to get much more than this mile, she hadn’t done much until her last run. Since her sp’s have improved for each step up in trip i’m not sure of the wisdom of dropping her back in triptoday and I don’t think she’ll have enough tactical speed . |
Her best run as a two year old was on dirt and i’m not sure that won’t be her best surface rather than todays grass. Has some god form and could sneak into the top three but I can’t see a win at this trip.
THE BEGINNING(KY) (TALE OF THE CAT x LYPHARD x HAIL TO REASON) |
She’s bred to get around 9-10f nad has been running as though 10f would be her ideal trip. Good wins at 9.5f seem to confirm this and she is another for whome the drop in trip does not look good. She has also yet to run better thana 93sp and that won’t cut it at this level. Could make a good stakes horse at 10f but I think a lack of class and a trip too short will find her out today.
A LOVELY CITY(AUS) (REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x BOSTON HARBOR x BUCKAROO) |
A bit of a mixed bag in terms of breeding although she would appear to be bred to be a sprinter. I don’t think she stays this trip and certainly not in this grade. With a best run of only a 92 sp in finishing fourth last time out she looks well short of the class to be involved in the finish. The only two allowances she has won were bid races and I see her finishing at the tail of the field today, although she might be in the front line for the first six furlongs or so she will fade.
ANOTHER SHOT(KY) (SKY MESA x RAHY x PRIVATE ACCOUNT) |
Despite some stamina influences in her pedigree a lot of Sky Mesa’s turn out to be sprinters and her latest run over 7f seems to suggest she wil be too. That run was better than the try before over todays trip and she’s another who I expect to show up early and then fade. With that 98 sp latest she looks as though a good graded career might be in the offing but surely over less. She might hold on long enough for a top five place but that’s the best I can see.
ALYDARZAPPER(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x A.P. INDY x ALYDAR) |
Bred to get at least 9f and bred for dirt, but her best run was her last which was her first try on turf. She has also run better at around todays trip and should therefore rate a sa big threat today. However I have two worries, firstly that her sp’s so far have not been good enough and secondly that often first time out on a new surface brings improvement only foer that to vanish in subsequent runs on that surface, especially where the breeding doesn’t seem to fit. Still if she can improve justa bit on her last run she will be a big danger to all.
NAVAJO WELLS(KY) (TOCCET x SEEKING THE GOLD x BROAD BRUSH) |
Plenty of wins under her belt and bred for this trip she has been the most consistanr runner in the field. She has won a Grade III last time up with a 96sp and I would expect her to improve a bit on that today. Generally likes to sit just off the pace and could have the race run to suit today with several front runners in opposition. She looks nailed on for a top three at least and should probably be the favourite on the morning line. A huge threat.
OVERALL-
A difficult race to call with a lot of inexperienced runners but for me it comes down to two- TO THE CHOIR and NAVAJO WELLS and i’m not going to choose between them.