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The Grade II Real Danger Handicap

joey29

Ireland

3581.5915

Real Danger Handicap Grade II  

A Field of 14 Line Up in the Grade II Real Danger Handicap

 

 

By Joey29

 

A field of fourteen fillies and mares will line up in the Grade II Real Danger Handicap run at six furlongs on the fast dirt course at Ireland. In this field all horses have the potential to win, even the long shots, which will set up an exciting race for all involved. This field is full of stakes winner who would love to get a Grade II under their belt as well as a piece of that nice $200,000 purse.

 

  1. BLACK TY TINSEL(KY) (11/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (ROMAN RULER x STORM CAT x MARFA) trained by wes32 and ridden by G Holland. BLACK TY TINSEL(KY) enters this race coming off a big win in the Grade III Nasty n’ Bold Handicap where she won with a flying finish to get up by ¾ lengths. She is still an inexperienced young filly with just 16 races under her belt, with wins in only four. Her running still will benefit her in this race because she can sit right off the pace and steal a victory. BLACK TY TINSEL(KY) may be geared up for this race as she has just come off her best performance with a 107 Speed Figure. She defiantly has the ability to win this race after her prior performance, but this field of 14 will prove difficult for this filly to obtain her fifth win of her young career.

 

 

  1. PAPUA THEFT (14/1) is a 5 year old mare out of (A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR x SECRETARIAT) trained by pick4 and ridden by D Nickesy. PAPUA THEFT was once a superstar filly when she was a two year old when she competed in the Grade I Breeders Bowl Filly Juvenile. Now at the old of five she seems to have reinvented herself and found what once made her a Grade I winner. Although she has not won a stakes race in a little under two years; she has come up with fantastic finishes in her last two races in both the  DAN’S DRAGON Special Stakes and the MAMMOTH SMASH Special Stakes, where she lost by a total of only ¾ lengths. PAPUA THEFT clearly has here best race ahead of her with her last two Speed Figures of 102 and 106. Clearly PAPUA THEFT has a chance to close into this fast pace and she will need pace in order for her to compete and perhaps return to her former glory.

 

 

  1. BARB’S LAST NERVE(KY) (11/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x NUREYEV) trained by joseph316 and ridden by N Schreiber. Entering this race with a win in the SEPTEMBER STINK Stakes where BARB’S LAST NERVE(KY) sat off the pace setter and easily slipped on by for the win. She defiantly does not have a lot of experience with only 15 races and five career victories. BARB’S LAST NERVE(KY) has defiantly been coming on of late in her last four races where she has consistently posted Speed Figures over 103. BARB’S LAST NERVE(KY) will defiantly be up near the front of the pack in this one looking to steal it in the stretch. If she can get a perfect trip it is conceivable that she can easily win this one, but will the pace shuffle her back or put her in fast fractions.

 

 

  1. TREASURE COAST (5/1) is a 6 year old mare out of (SILVER DEPUTY x MR. GREELEY x VAGUELY NOBLE) trained by paddy and ridden by I M Buttons. TREASURE COAST enters this race as a well deserving favorite, well somewhat at five to one. However, she has clearly made her case to be the favorite in this race as she has the most experience. The problem with this mare is that she has a tendency to find herself in a dogfight of a race. She defiantly has the class as she proved when she won the VOLUME DISTURBED Memorial Stakes. The main reason why TREASURE COAST is favored is because of her impressive Speed Figures, which all of her last four have ranged from 106-108. TREASURE COAST defiantly will find herself track the leaders early on, but the question lies in whether she will find a way to win what will most likely be a fight to the finish.

 

 

  1. REDOUTE’S NINER(AUS) (10/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x DEPUTY MINISTER x FORTY NINER) trained by zewango2 and ridden by M Fontain. Well if you asked me who I thought was going to be the pace setter of this race from the start I would tell you to look no further then REDOUTE’S NINER(AUS). Now if you want to talk about speed it is the filly’s game. A one time $150,000 claimer finds herself with a chance to become a graded stakes winner here today. She defiantly showed her speed in the SALLY RAISE Memorial Stakes where she lead the whole way only to lose by ½ a length. One thing is for sure, and that is that REDOUTE’S NINER(AUS) will be pushing the field and good as fast as she can from gate to wire; but, the question remains as to whether she can hold on at the end.

 

 

  1. SONG GIRL (6/1) is a 5 year old mare out of (SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR x HALO) trained by peeps8 and ridden by M Robinson. This mare is what we call a late bloomer, who didn’t find her true potential until she was late in her 2007 campaign. Now SONG GIRL has a chance to become a Grade II winner and a rising star in the Sim. She looks like she has turned a corner and that she is ready to take it the next level in this race today. SONG GIRL won her prep entering this race in the PARIS SEATLLE Stakes where she won by a length and posted a 108 Speed Figure. It looks like she has everything going for her entering this race so the question is, what will the other horse do to ruin it?

 

 

  1. DICTATION(JPN) (10/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (FORTY NINER x STORM BIRD x SECRETARIAT) trained by jerrylee and ridden by D Doyle. This horse is a dead closer and looks like she will be coming strong at the end of this race. However, there are many questions with this filly and she will have to answer them if she is to win. First of all is her lack of experience, as she has only 15 races and 13 of them on the dirt. Secondly, this distance doesn’t seem to fit her; DICTATION(JPN) is the type horse that needs more distance than six furlongs. Thirdly, is her class; DICTATION(JPN)  has not finished remotely close in any of her two graded races in her career and seemed overmatched. Despite my concern, she still is a very talented filly capable of walking away with this one in the end.

 

 

  1. TRI STRIKE(KY) (18/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (SMART STRIKE x RUBIANO x DEPUTY MINISTER) trained by sdmf9 and ridden by R Inch. TRI STRIKE(KY)  is another filly with distance concern. She has never raced at this distance, and being a closer will only hurt her chances in this one. She will defiantly find herself trailing early and it may be just too much to overcome in this one with the speed of other fillies. TRI STRIKE(KY) has won three stakes races in her young career, so she knows what it takes to win. The problem with TRI STRIKE(KY) in this one is that she defiantly will need the pace to be extremely fast for her to close into, but that’s why they run the races.

 

 

  1. WU JEN(JPN) (14/1) is a 5 year old mare out of (FUJI KISEKI(JPN) x SLEWPY x COMPLIANCE) trained by txbred and ridden by F Durst. Here is yet another closer in this race that will be finishing fast at the end of the race. WU JEN(JPN)  has raced more on the turf than dirt and that seems to have made her the race horse she is today. After starting her career on the turf, she found that her true running surface was dirt and her specialty was closing in sprints. The concern about her is her low and inconsistent Speed Figures, with her highest toped out at 105 two races back. WU JEN(JPN) lack of graded stakes experience and low Speed Figures makes her look as if it will take a superb effort to steal this one

 

 

  1. I SEE YOUR POINT(KY) (14/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (POINT GIVEN x STORM BIRD x WILD AGAIN) trained by baggio and ridden by M Russell. I SEE YOUR POINT(KY) defiantly has come on to the graded stakes scene in her last two. This horse went form an allowance horse to a Grade II horse when she had a flying finish in the Grade II The Wild West Dash Stakes where  she finished second; only beaten by a mere late. She is one of most intriguing horses in this race as we do not know which filly will show up in this race. Will it be the I SEE YOUR POINT(KY) that finished second in race mentioned above or the filly that ran a miserable eleventh in the Grade II Unthinkable Stakes?

 

 

  1. PLEASANT LASS(KY) (15/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x NIGHT SHIFT x CUTLASS) trained by richardobe and ridden by E C Doyle. This horse is a great sprinter on either a turf surface or dirt surface. Aside from her versatility PLEASANT LASS(KY) looks like a horse that can easily stay near the middle of the pack and find a way to steal this one. However, PLEASANT LASS(KY) doesn’t have the Speed Figures that the other fillies and mares have in this one but she seemed to improve with every start on the dirt. Although her Speed Figures are somewhat below average against this field, PLEASANT LASS(KY) still could find herself in this race late.

 

  1. CRESTFALLEN II (7/1) is a 6 year old mare out of (MR. GREELEY x DANZIG x OUR NATIVE) trained by simstar and ridden by A Reed. Talk about a lightly raced six year old mare, CRESTFALLEN II only has sixteen starts in her career. CRESTFALLEN II found herself again after she took 2006 off and then ran on the turf for seven races before finding her true calling, sprinting on the dirt. She clearly enters this race as a horse to be reckoned with as evidence by the two 111 Speed Figures that she acquired in her two wins in both The LOST SEA Handicap and The MORE KICK Special. CRESTFALLEN II seems to find herself always lurking somewhere in the middle of the pack before she out-kicks most of her opposition in the field. If this filly runs back to her last two races then CRESTFALLEN II has a clear chance to take this one in the final strides.

 

 

  1. THE TEACHER (12/1) is a 6 year old mare out of (AWESOME AGAIN x DANZIG x J. O. TOBIN) trained by manon and ridden by G Withers. Talk about another lightly raced six year old mare, THE TEACHER only has sixteen starts in her career. It seems to be like looking in a mirror at CRESTFALLEN II when THE TEACHER looks. She has a similar running style, as she likes to run in the middle of the pack and find her way up in the final strides. She comes into this one with wins in her last two stakes races, The SALLY RAISE Memorial and The MS. BURLAR(GB) Stakes where she ran Speed Figures of a 103 and 109, respectively. THE TEACHER has a chance to find herself in perfect striking distance as this race comes near the finish, but will she prove best at the wire?

 

 

  1. MARY WALKER(KY) (10/1) is a 4 year old filly out of (AFLEET ALEX x SADLER’S WELLS x EXCLUSIVE NATIVE) trained by sangraal and ridden by Z Kentucky. Her seems to be the best closer of the crop of closers in this one. MARY WALKER(KY) defiantly has turned it on as of late in her last four, where she has consistently posted Speed Figures over 101. She will be looking to repeat her past performance in the Grade II Sister Dumb Stakes where she won by ¾ of a length a posted a 108 Speed Figure. MARY WALKER(KY) will find herself in the back of the pack early on in this one, but at the end of the race it might be her finishing fastest of them all.

 

 

Joe’s Pick

  1. (1) CRESTFALLEN II: Looked like a champ in her last two, expect repeat
  2. (4) TREASURE COAST: She’s found herself a dogfight, just not enough to hold
  3. (6) MARY WALKER(KY): The best closer in this one will be flying late

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