GIII Barbara Walters Special

PP1- 6/1- El Prado’s Gold (KY)- Dagrims2– Sent out as the co-favorite, this son of El Prado out of a Seeking the Gold mare has not been out of the money since his switch to dirt last summer.  In keeping with that theme, he has only been out of the top three once in nine starts on the dirt.  He is horrible consistent, and was a close third in his only previous graded attempt which was his last race three weeks ago.  Has tactical speed that can get him to the front on a soft pace, but all of his wins have come from a close stalking trip.  His 102 last time out was a career best speed figure, and his top two speed figures have come in his last three races.  Normally I would be worried about a bounce in this race, but this is a horse on the improve, and may make another step forward.  The pace for this race is going to be suicide as there is only one true closer with a shot and the other twelve horses all trying to get the lead or close to it. 

Predicted Finish- 3^rd– Of the stalkers, one of the best, but it is going to be crazy up front, and sets up better for a closer

PP2-11/1- The Fox (KY)- Larsonista– Ran in the Chicago Derby Lock Race last time out with some not so good results.  Another one of the speed balls in this race, but has one win from a stalking trip.  His pedigree screams distance (Touch Gold x Point Given x Seattle Slew), but every race over a mile has been a disaster, losing by a combined 25 lengths in his last two starts over a mile.  His top speed of 99 is not enough to win this race, and needs an effort he has not shown he is capable of yet to be a factor in this race.  In his last race he was unable to get the lead which means he probably does not has elite speed which is what is needed in a graded race to win from up front. 

Predicted Finish- 10^th– Will be up front early, but can’t extend his speed and will be backing up badly down the stretch.

PP3- 6/1- Fu Ming (KY)- Learfan55– A son of Fusaichi Pegasus out of Storm Goddess (C- rated Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector).  A true blue blood that is on the rise, and is only passing through as his best races are going to be found at distances greater than a mile.  Lightly raced at only eight starts with five wins and no finishes out of the top three makes this horse a tough one to beat this week.  The co-favorite, he is another one of the stalkers, and most of his races appear to be hand picked short field races.  This will be his first test with a full field of 14, and that could be significant.  The last race he ran was his longest at a mile, and also his top speed figure of 102.  This is a very nice horse, but will have a problem with the full field and the early pace.  

Predicted Finish- 2^nd– Will be right there at the finish, and has a real big chance this week, but I like a closer with all of the speed, although he can sit a bit further back than the rest of the stalkers.

PP4- 11/1- Major A. P. (KY)– Mmstable5– Another lightly raced colt with only seven starts to his credit with three wins.  Should be up front early, but does not have blazing speed as his only wire to wire win came in a four horse field.  No chance of him wiring the field this week so let us look at his stalking trips.  A homebred scratch bred out of Military and a Seeking the Gold mare. His one stake win out of four tries came in a short field of six, and his other stakes tries were so-so, but nothing spectacular.  He has been very consistent at a mile with all of his tries producing speed figures above 90 with a high of 97 (twice).  Just not sure he is up to a field of this caliber yet, but has a slight chance.  He is not one of the best stalkers in this field, and will be a mid pack finish. 

Predicted Finish- 9^th– Best speeds are not enough this week.

PP5- 9/1- Paradise Cove (KY)- Lawyerron– Another regally bred scratch bred out of A.P. Indy and a Seeking the Gold mare that could possibly have been named after some late night Cinemax viewing…perhaps? This guy has the best true speed of the bunch, but this pace scenario sets up very bad for him.  He can get the lead, but may have to kill his chances to win to get it.  Has not won in four tries at stakes competition with the last two being graded stakes.  The dilemma for this guy is he has to have the lead to win, but there is no way he can wire this field.  He finished a respectable fourth in the Arkansas Derby Lock, but was not a factor at the end.  Paradise Cove has yet to crack a 100 and that is area of concern as it will most certainly take a 100+ effort to win this week. 

Predicted Finish- 5^th– Has shown that he can hang on for a check after getting caught late. Race could not set up worse for him. 

PP6- 10/1- Forest Ambush (KY)- Lionart- A son of Forest Wildcat out of multiple G I wining mare Dancing Blade (A- rated Kingmambo x Crusader Sword).  While this horse has attempted five graded stakes, he has won none and has no non-maiden wins on dirt.  His one lone allowance win was on turf and was a NW2L.  He did have a fifth place finish in the California Derby Lock last time out and a career best speed figure of 97 at the 9f route.  A stalking pace is his preferred trip, but can get the lead if the early pace is soft.  His two win have come from just off of the pace.  While his speed figures were a bit lower on the turf, he shows much more speed and finishes better on the green stuff.  His mother was a turfer, and I think ultimately that is where he will do his best work.  Will not make the lead, and not one of the best stalkers, he will not embarrass himself, but I can not envision a scenario that makes him a winner this week. 

Predicted Finish- 8^th– A move back to turf is in order for this guy.  Just not getting it done on dirt.  Genetics too good to only be average.

PP7- 29/1- Not Amusing (FL)- Quiggy1– A son of Red Bullet out of the stakes winning mare Talent to Amuse (D- rated Roar x Crusader Sword) is in a bit over his head this week.  While this horse has improved since Quiggy1 claimed him for 5k back in December, he is not really ready for this.  He has won his last four races, but they have consisted of starter allowance races and CPU value restricted allowances.  He has one race with a speed figure over 90 and it was only a 94 against a decent field.  Another colt that wants to stalk but can get the lead if an opportunity presents itself.  This guy has made great strides in the last four months, but he is not ready for this level of competition yet. 

Predicted Finish- 12^th– No real shot here, not shown he is ready for this kind of a race yet.

PP8- 10/1- Magical Danz (IRE)- Magicflute- A Kalanisi sired colt out of the mare Danzig Wood (F-rated Danzig x Woodman) with eleven career starts.  Has run in five previous graded stakes races, three of which were grade I’s with mixed results.  Won two G III’s last fall as a 2yo and just missed another, but has not fared as well as a 3yo with graded stakes company.  Was soundly beaten in the Florida Derby Lock finishing a well beaten eighth, and also finished eighth in the GI Vermont is for Lovers, but was beaten only by two.  When sprinting he is able to hold his speed to the wire, but as the races get longer he has shown a much diminished ability to hold the speed the whole race.  His best race was at a mile with a stalking trip which he won with a strong finish posting a 102 speed figure.  On paper he does no have much of a shot, but he loves a mile and is battle tested in graded stakes.  I like this horse to pick up a check this week. 

Predicted Finish- 4^th– Should be in the money, but a win would not be shocking. 

PP9- 26/1- Deeproute.com (JPN)- Testcase AKA Sim God- Hummm….I get to evaluate the horse of the game designers.…oh goody for me J  A lightly raced son of Deep Impact out of the mare Shawnae’s Dream (H-rated Sadler’s Wells x Buckpasser) that has been much better since his switch to dirt last December.  He has had two restricted allowance wins and a second in a short field stakes race.  Another horse that prefers a stalking trip, but not the best of that group.  With a career best speed figure of 92, this guy is really up against it this week.  His speed figures do not show it, but seems to be a bit stronger at distances above a mile, as both allowance wins were at 9.5f.  I think an improvement of at least 10 points would be necessary for this one to have a shot, and I don’t see that happening. 

Predicted Finish- 14^th– Has no previous effort in the past that makes me think that he can be in the mix at the end.  Will be much better as the races get longer and he gets older.

PP10- 8/1- Exterminate (ENG)- Younggroup– Imagine that, another stalker in this race.  This homebred scratch bred is out of Red Ransom and a Fusaichi Pegasus mare that has nine career starts with three wins.  His last race he just missed punching his Derby ticket with a second place finish in the Sand Castle Derby Lock on a sloppy track.  This horse has not been very consistent and it is hard to predict what type of performance we are going to see.  He does have some natural speed and very well could be out front early, but faded badly in his only attempt to wire a field.  His top speed is a 102 which happened last race in the Sand Castle.  This might be enough to win, but I would expect a bit of a bounce coming off of a GI.  If he makes another step forward off of his last race, he has   a real shot, but a bit of a regression is more likely. 

Predicted Finish- 7^th– Could bounce this week, but a win would not be Earth shattering as he has the talent to win.  Must be up front early as he seems to lose interest if he is not right with or on the lead. 

PP11- 7/1- Budget Day (KY)- Hollofly– By far the most flexible of this weeks runner, this son of Awesome Again out of an A. P. Indy mare has shown the ability to lead, stalk and close.  By no means a deep closer, however he does, show that he can let the leaders burn up and get there by the end.  His last outing was a 103 at 8.5 f in a GIII, and has shown steady improvement over the course of his career.  This race sets up perfectly for him, and unless one of the other horses learns a new trick, he will be coming home late to a suicidal pace to get there at the wire.  The last race he was in might have had a better field than this one, and he was there at the end.  While he has only two wins out of seven starts, he is ready for this in a big way.

Predicted Finish- 1^st– The only one that has shown he can close and lay off a hot pace.  Maybe not the best horse, but the best running style for this race.

PP12- 13/1- Otto Grenades (KY)- Mardigras– A later bloomer than the rest of the field this colt did not break his maiden until his fifth race, and has one race since in eight career races.  This is a son of Bernardini out of the mare Hand Grenade (D-rated Fusaichi Pegasus x Storm Cat) has been much better his last two races showing identical 99 speed figures with a stakes win last time out.  This is a bit deceiving as he has faced a total of 9 other horses in the two races.  This horse has a ton of talent, but not sure if he is ready for this.  Another horse that likes to be on or right near the lead which places him in a bad spot this week.  A nightmare pace scenario for a horse that is not used to a good crowded field.  I do not think he will be up near the front, and may not like having a ton of dirt kicked in his face.  With his two best races coming in his last two outings a bit of a regression might be in order.  Will be better later in the year as the races get longer. 

Predicted Finish- 13^th– Most likely going to bounce, and is lacking the foundation for this race. 

PP13- 10/1- Maalox Moment (KY)- Stupor2- Probably the fastest horse in the field, Maalox Moment, is a son of Gone West out of a Green Desert mare.  He has shown take your breath away speed in the past by opening up huge leads and hanging on at the end in most.  Was unable to hold his lead in his only attempt at a mile, while his best performances have come at 7.5f.  His top speed figure is only 100, so he will need a career best race to win this week.  It is very difficult to know how the race will go with this guy.  Most of the horses are stalkers in this race which might just let this guy get away a bit.  If this is the case, and that is a big if, he has a shot.  Even when he does get caught he does not close up shop, and gets a decent finish.  On the other hand he has not been in a race this difficult yet and his owner has kept him in fields eight or smaller his entire career. 

Predicted Finish- 6^th– Don’t think he can win, but is always near the front at the finish.  The question is whether he will be there with a full field to run against.

PP14- 13/1- Mullinavat (KY)- Coug– A son of El Prado out the mare Ginger’s Mama (C-rated Pleasant Colony x One for All), Mullinavat has eleven career starts with two wins.  Showed a lot of speed early in his career, but as the competition in creased became more of the stalking type as he is not a true speed horse.  He is another later bloomer waiting until his fifth race to break his maiden.  He has switched from turf to dirt a couple of times and seems to show much more speed on turf, but much lower speed figures.  El Prado is primarily a dirt influence in the sim, so dirt is most likely where he belongs.  His last graded attempt was a complete disaster finishing last over 15 lengths back in a field of 12.  He had posted a career best speed figure of 97 the race before, and had duplicated that one other time, but a big jump forward is going to be needed to be competitive this week.  He needs to be off of the pace, but his previous attempts at closing were not successful.  Race does not set up well for him, and would need a out of this world race to have a shot.   

Predicted Finish- 11^th– Race sets up poorly, but could conceivably get a check.