BLUEGRASS DERBY 2008
In a year that boasts arguably the most competitive field in Bluegrass Derby history, I find myself folding up my Black Type Bugler Racing Form, putting it in the left rear pocket of my blue jeans, and just handicapping the extremely talented group of trainers that will be represented in Kentucky.
Upon examination, it has become quite evident that there are trainers who absolutely get it, know exactly what it takes to train one of these simulated micro chips, and get them to the biggest races in the sim. Others, including myself, are still tiptoeing around the piles of dung deposited throughout the stable area wondering maybe, if we stepped in one of those piles just one time; that it might be all the luck that’s needed to get us to the next level.
Lenny has absolutely dominated the Derby Prep races of 2008, and is being represented by four of the top twenty three year olds, TRADING JACK(KY), FOLSOM BLUES(KY), THE GUN WENT OFF(KY), who is likely to skip the Derby in favor of the Adelaide Derby, and I suspect SNARKY REMARK(IRE), whose Dam was stabled in sunshine87, a stable associated with the lenny empire. It will be very hard to separate the three probable starters, but the edge has to go to the lightly raced FOLSOM BLUES(KY) who has been near perfect in five starts.
Making sure that lenny doesn’t filch the blanket of roses, topicount boasts a trio of 3yo colts, as well as an interest in a fourth representative, with TAP DANCES(KY), SUNSET MESA(KY), SHETAN(KY), and a piece of super20’s BROADWAY DANCER(KY). You have to love TAP DANCES(KY) recent form, and despite the absence of a Grade I victory in his past performances, with a trainer who is second to none, this colt is bound to make his presence felt as the filed turns for home.
Not to be outdone by two of the very best, stevesutto, a trainer who has developed quite a reputation in his own right over the years, is loaded with double-barreled action with 3 year olds URBAN STORM CAT(KY) and GHOST IN A DANCER(KY). Just watching URBAN STORM CAT(KY) run, you think, ‘This is a horse that is going to love 10 furlongs’.
Think picking from that group isn’t difficult enough; add to the mix squirrel’s (2007 Trainer of the Year and trainer of the multi Eclipse Award winning Horse of the Year SOLAR SONG), Sand Castle shocker PRO MON(KY). This is a case where I think the trainer’s ability may surpass the horse’s ability. Gives me an uneasy feeling leaving this one out though.
Things don’t get any easier when theatrical (the 1999 Trainer of the Year, and trainer of Eclipse Award winner’s, One Attack, School Kris(GB), Minsky, and Krishna(IRE), saddles GRATEST(FL), the Florida Derby’s runner up. A combination of great trainer and talented horse, this colt may be sitting on the race of his life.
Just when you were about to exhale, you have to consider texasace, the two-time Trainer of the Year, and trainer of the four time Eclipse Award winning HORSESHOE BAY, and his top 3yo ALYDAR AGAIN(KY), who is likely to skip the Derby and set his sights on the third leg of the Triple Crown, the New Yorker. Not too many trainers with the insight that texasace has; he’s pointing towards NY with this colt, take notice.
Rethinking my handicapping approach, it has become apparent to me that there is no way to separate the accomplishments of any of these great trainers and their ability to win big races.
Back to the Form…
Taking a look at some of the lesser-recognized outfits with the possibility of stepping into the limelight, you just know that chuckrock is beside himself with ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY), and fortunately for chuck, he didn’t take my advice and skip the Corkscrew for better opportunities down the road. I still don’t think the colt will get the 1 ¼, but then again I thought he’d have dirt kicking up in his face as they came for home in the Corkscrew, so chuck should be in good shape for the Derby.
It doesn’t get any better for the opcon connections than WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY). Make no mistake about it; simply said, this is the horse to beat in the 10th running of the Bluegrass Derby.
You just know the folks at Moose Hollow Farm are anxiously waiting for FLEET DAISY(KY) to enter the Derby starting gate. The 2007 Juvenile Eclipse Award winner has made just two starts this year, and you can just feel that his best race as a 3yo is right around the corner.
As for LUCKY’S MASH(ENG), what can you say, he’s a full brother to last years Derby starter LUCKY’S CAPITAL(ENG), and is entering this field via a similar route winning a Grade-I race in the last four weeks that isn’t a Lock Race. That breeding was so nice, Mr. Lucky did it twice…nice job getting both to the Bluegrass.
Ok, so I am no closer to deciding on the winner of this year’s Derby than I was six weeks ago, so I am going to revert back to what I always do when I can’t make up my mind…I’m going to ask irish.
Good luck to all the trainers that do it better, and to those who are about to join those ranks.
trot