Will Post Position Define Winner of Derby or Oaks?

This weekend brings the long awaited Bluegrass Derby and Bluegrass Oaks to Kentucky. Both races have always drawn a full field and undoubtedly this year will be no exception. With 20 horses populating both races, I sit back and wonder what effect this may have on a horses chances.

First the Oaks, which is a 9 furlong contest. In the eight year history, the winner has come in three times from post 4 and twice from post 6. Post 9 shows the most places with three and post 8 has had two. With shows, post 2 has come in three times. Several posts have never had a horse finish on the board, those being posts 3, 7, 11, 15, 18, 19, and 20. It seems that the ladies that run this race have the greatest difficulty from post 15 through 20, with only 3 hitting the board.

Now the Derby which goes a distance of 10 furlongs. No post has won this race more than once. Post 2 has finished second on two occassions. Both posts 5 and 15 have had horses finishing in the show spot twice. Posts 3, 8, 11 and 17 have never hit the board in this prestigious race.

In the Oaks, the fillies tend to favor the traditional posts (1-14) and those drawing the extended gate (15-20) do not fare to well. Post 14 does well with the winners circle, but hasn’t had any horses finishing second or third. Post 6 has had two winners and one that finished second.

With the Derby, there does not seem to be any post that fares any better than the other. The extra furlong that is run, compared to the Oaks, may be of some benefit to those who draw the outside spots.

As a side note, the first two Derbys and the first Oaks race were limited to 12 entries and those results are included in the results.

Back in February, I did an article where I tracked 300 races with a full 14-horse field. The analysis did not show any significant variance in posts, but the analysis was not restricted to any particular track, distance, turf surface or track conditions. The analysis did show that over 27% of the favorites won the race and 58% finished in the money.

In reviewing the Oaks, only one favorite has won the race (12.5%). Even more surprising, that was the only favorite to come in the money, thus also resulting in a 12.5% ITM percentage. The average odds of the winning horse in the Oaks is 15-1, with odds as high as 34-1 winning the event. Six of the eight favorites have finished 12th or worse.

With the Derby, there was actually two horses that went off as co-favorites, thus in the 9-year history we have had 10 favorites. Of those, 2 have won the race (20%) and 4 have finished in the money (40%). The average odds of the winning horse is 10-1 and the highest odds at 17-1.

So what, if anything, is learned here? With the level of talent that enters these races, anything can happen. With the Oaks, I would avoid wagering on the favorites and lean towards the gals drawing the inner posts. With the Derby, I’d roll a 20-sided dice and hope it is correct.