G3-Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes

Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes
Grade III
One mile
Fast Dirt
$150,000
All horses, 3 years old

One week until the big day here in Kentucky finds a capacity crowd for this year’s running of the Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes.  Making a cameo appearance for today’s race is previous BTB reporter Maverick.  The final countdown ticks to Derby day enters its final strides with today’s race as many other three year colts who don’t have the credentials to run next week have a chance to prove themselves.  Early speed seems to seize the race as the majority of the runners here prefer to run at or near the front so you may see a late run from the back take home the trophy.  A near full field is set to run but the two names that jump out are Mach Pelican and the #13 ranked Jesus Walks who is passing on the big race next week for a run here.  However, there are a few challengers looking to step up and steal the prize.  However, I’m hard pressed to go against the favorites but I’ll have my money on Mach Pelican who seems to be improving with each race.

–Maverick

PP 1

12/1 VORREEDI(KY)

(BERNARDINI x DANZIG x UNBRIDLED)

D Sherman ( 190 – 16 – 23 – 18 – 8% )

Trainer:  vor

Our post position colt, Vorreedi and trainer vor looks to prove the betting public wrong with a strong showing here today.  This colt looked strong his juvy season and if you throw out that off track race in November he’s a winner of five in a row.  What needs to proven though is if he can handle the class at this level.  He finished a disappointing 6^th in his last race in the G1-Florida Derby where he was giving up ground down the stretch.  However, the return to a mile may work better for him as he has won at this distance in the past.

PP 2

9/2 MACH PELICAN(KY)

(GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER)

R Connor ( 107 – 13 – 13 – 6 – 12% )

Trainer:  newastin1

Mach Pelican, our first of two co-favorites, and trainer newastin1 come to Kentucky hoping that three times is the charm.  This Ghostzapper colt has finished second in his last two graded races but looks to be hitting his best stride now.  Unlike Jesus Walks, he has shown improvement in each of his last four starts and though he shares top billing on the board he looks like the one to beat.  However, he tackles two turns for the first time since December but he appears to have a late kick and the added distance might be the right call here.

PP 3

12/1 NEAR THE KNUCKLE(KY)

(DAYJUR x KINGMAMBO x STORM BIRD)

S O’Calslew ( 30 – 2 – 1 – 5 – 7% )

Trainer:  firebird

Near The Knuckle makes his second consecutive start at two turns today.  His last start was in G3-Transylvania Stakes where he did show some decent speed but ran evenly for a 6^th place finish.  His failure to fire when asked has been a recurring problem for him and the owner Blacksoxuk Firebird Stables.  However,  his second start at this distance may come with better results this time but will need a top ride from little used jockey S. O’Calslew.  This colt does have one listed stake win to his credit but will have to prove himself worthy at this level. 

PP 4

9/2 JESUS WALKS(KY)

(CAME HOME x PULPIT x MEADOWLAKE)

D Givins ( 286 – 75 – 51 – 32 – 26% )

Trainer:  milesius

Our other co-favorite, Jesus Walks, looks for a return to form that he had found the later part of 2007.  Owned by the Cvbear Racing Empire, trainer Milesius has managed to procure top jock D. Givins to make the ride.  This colt showed serious Derby promise last year with back to back graded wins including the G1-Eruption Handicap but has slumped as of late.  Although currently ranked #13 his connections announced earlier this week that they were opting out of the Derby and placing him here.  Perhaps with a good showing he may be pointed toward one of the two remaining Triple Crown races.

PP 5

11/1 SLEW AN GOLD(KY)

(SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER x SEATTLE SLEW)

B Sipe ( 224 – 11 – 23 – 19 – 5% )

Trainer:  theking

The very lightly raced Slew An Gold finds himself just to the outside of co-favorite Jesus Walks.  This blue-blood colt is making just his career 5^th start today but so far has looked good.  He’s a winner in three of those four races and makes the natural move up to graded company with a win in The Warning Kingdom Cap.  Although that win with a 95SP may be below par for this level of play he did cruise home under a hand ride so that number be deceiving.  Look for him to sit mid-pack before making a move around the final turn.  The huge amount of early speed may set up nicely for him.

PP 6

11/1 ANGLES OUT(KY)

(TIZNOW x APTITUDE x EXCLUSIVE NATIVE)

P Cadigan ( 273 – 39 – 31 – 48 – 14% )

Trainer:  mav1763

Angles Out, owned by the Deadinthelane Stables, is another double digit odds entry who is coming off a listed stakes win.  This Tiznow colt has never finished out of the money in eight lifetime starts but needs to have a career day to best this field.  He was never seriously challenged in his last race in The Opal Slew Memorial so he should be fresh for this run.  His only big question is whether he is ready to peak now or not.  Unfortunately, looking back at last year’s Tiznow offsprings who finished in the money in graded events, they never crossed the triple figure SP ratings until mid-late in the year.  Hopefully he’ll prove the statistics wrong.

PP 7

7/1 CHANGE OF SCENERY(IRE)

(DIAMOND GREEN (FR) x BROAD BRUSH x NORTHERN DANCER)

B Alt ( 117 – 12 – 6 – 8 – 10% )

Trainer:  foxon4

Gate #7 finds the Foxon Stables entry Change of Scenery who may have struck gold with little known sire Diamond Green.  He comes in today with a life time best 103SP in his last race in the G3-Transylvania Stakes where he finished a very game fourth.  Although he has yet to win at any stakes level this colt certainly proved last time out that he can handle this class of competition  He moves back just every so slightly in distance but the half furlong may be enough to hold on to the win as he has shown signs of fatigue in the final strides.

PP 8

11/1 JUST TALK(MD)

(DEPUTY STORM x BELIEVE THE QUEEN x AT THE THRESHOLD)

P Jazz ( 161 – 14 – 13 – 17 – 9% )

Trainer:  badday

Making just his third start of the year, Just Talk has a huge closing leg that sets up nicely with all the early speed in the race.  He finished a very game 4^th last time out in G2-Sleepy Fan Stakes where he was simply out run to the finish line.  His closing style has worked against some though as he seems to fire too late and has found himself running out of track.  Perhaps a change in strategy may be coming here from trainer badday who represents the NWRC stables. 

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PP 9

21/1 BUDZIG(KY)

(BUDDHA x HAWK WING (IRE) x DANZIG)

S Blood ( 43 – 4 – 2 – 2 – 9% )

Trainer:  outinfront

The 9^th spot finds 21/1 long shot Budzig who steps down in distance today and I like that move.  This colt may perhaps be a sleeper but probably later in the year.  He makes his third start after winning his maiden back in February but that lone win is all he has in his short career.  He did make a good showing though two races back in The Ridge Gordon Stakes with a 99SP but the 9.5 furlong distance may have been a bit much for him.  He likes to go to the lead early but with 2/3^rd of the pack going with him he may wear down as again.  Not a good bet but I am interested to see how he performs at a mile. 

PP 10

24/1 WHIM(KY)

(CACTUS RIDGE x OUT OF PLACE x SLEW CITY SLEW)

S Garber ( 42 – 1 – 4 – 5 – 2% )

Trainer:  alysalley

Whim gets the honor of longest shot on the board in today’s race.  His entry here is questionable from the veteran racing group At The Wire Thoroughbreds.  His last six races have all finished with SP ratings in the low to mid 80’s so his chances here are not good at all.  Add to that jockey S Garber who has only one win all year and the outcome worsens.  Perhaps a return to Allowance company may be in order after today.

PP 11

19/1 SMART AND FAST(KY)

(SMARTY JONES x DEPUTY MINISTER x A.P. INDY)

I Hoge ( 73 – 7 – 6 – 9 – 10% )

Trainer:  danno1

Smart And Fast is a surprise entry here.  This Smart Jones colt comes into today with just a MSW win to his record and since can only boast a 3^rd place finish in a NW2L allowance race.  Although he did show some signs of decent speed, his record stands for itself.  He makes his second start in two weeks after a two month layoff so perhaps he’ll improve.

PP 12

8/1 JACK’S HOUSE(KY)

(GOLDEN MISSILE x SAINT BALLADO x THE MINSTREL)

B Carley ( 46 – 3 – 3 – 5 – 7% )

Trainer:  blacklabel

After breaking his maiden in September, Jack’s House went on a tear claiming five victories in six races which were capped off with a win in The Carby’s King Cap.  The 102SP in the listed stakes event was a career best and all looked good for a serious run for the Derby.  However, his two attempts at this level have proven disastrous.  He’s finished near the back in his last two races including a 17 length stomping in the G2-All Saints Derby.  His owner, AJM Racing, decided to give him a little time off and makes his first start since March 8^th.    Will need to dig deep to find his form again.

PP 13

7/1 DYNAMIC SHOW(KY)

(DYNAFORMER x CARSON CITY x EL GRAN SENOR)

J Yount ( 39 – 3 – 5 – 1 – 8% )

Trainer:  loubrown

Our final entry, Dynamic Show, looks like a strong second choice.  He posted a field tying best 105SP two races back in the Brandywine Springs Handicap where he finished a very close 2^nd.  If you through out his last race at 9.5 furlongs he could be a colt showing signs of improvement.  I would like to have seen a more experienced jockey in the reins but he if can repeat that huge performance he’ll be in the thick of it in the end.