Closely Matched Field of 10 For GII Merced
The morning line handicapper finds little to separate the 10 males entered in the $200,000 Grade II Merced Stakes in Sweden Saturday afternoon at a mile-and-a-sixteenth of what should be firm turf. Let’s take a look at these 10 colts and older horses in the order in which the oddsmaker likes them.
9/2 favourite Maverick runs from the #5 position for the desperado2 barn, which gathers up winning checks at a 21.0% rate. The 5-year-old son of Gone West boasts 8 non-MCOS wins all at a half furlong more or less than this distance and has set lifetime bests at these distances during a.fast 4-race spell extending over the last 5 months which nevertheless produced no wins. Game dam A. P. Magic (Forty Niner x A. P. Indy) was also a stake-winning turf route specialist.111 is this one’s lifetime best at both 8 and 9 furlongs, and he matched it last out in a hard charging place finish in the G3 Boogity Bear in North Florida a month ago; this 111 matches the field’s lifetime best. Rider Mason, the track’s #2 performer, might keep in mind that this one’s actual wins have come when he doesn’t fall too far behind at second call.
5/1 co-second-favourite Blessed Road runs from the far outside for the lasthope barn, part of the dixiedotco operation, which wins races at a 25.3% clip. The 5-year-old son of Kingmambo is the field’s #2 lifetime earner with $514,835 in winnings gathered over 12 non-MCOS wins extending back to a stake win at this distance in this one’s second race ever, as a 2-year-old; that is in fact Blessed Road’s only lifetime stake win. After a spell on the dirt last fall, this one has returned to the turf, mostly at this distance, and put up 3 allowance wins and a 2nd-place stake finish this year, running speeds between 103 and 107. One might like to see a little more recent success in tough company before expecting too much here on Saturday.There are relatively few other deep closers here and rider Turnbull may find that the far outside is exactly the right place to run from with a horse of this style.
5/1 co-second favourite Draco runs from the #8 position for trainer spqr. The 5-year-old scratch-bred son of Sadler’s Wells (x A. P. Indy x Unbridled) is third in the field in lifetime earnings with $481,131 accrued, much accountable to a G3 win at 9 furlongs as a 3 year-old. Draco alters between tries at 8.5, 9 and 9.5 furlongs; his 2 wins over the last 9 months have both come at today’s distance. This one’s lifetime best at this distance, 108, came in an allowance win in North Florida in February. The race before that Draco put up a credible place finish in the G2 Sanders in Georgia in January. This one has run as a stalker and a closer and seems to have equal degress of success either way. Jockey Farthing, who will have to pick the winning approach Saturady; is off to a hot start this year (14.5%)
6/1 shot Third Eye Open runs from the 3rd post position for trainer jtlstables. The 5-year-old son of Giant’s Causeway has been a dirt runner most of his career but began to try his luck on the green more frequently last fall. The result has been an allowance win and 2 in the money finishes at a mile, the fastest of these efforts being a 107 twice back right at this track. This one has shown an ability to be coming late at a mile and this makes the attempt at 8.5 furlongs interesting. Third Eye open is an underlay here based upon overreliance on his dirt performances.. Rider Ibrox has been a little flat so far this year.
Dubeye is one of three horses running at 7/1 and is the highest earner of the 3, and of the whole field, with $973,266 in winnings highlighted by a G1 win as a 3-year-old. The son of Dubai Destination runs for the daedalus barn, associated with the ace operation. Game dam Daneye (Danehill x Nureyev) is a multiple graded turf route stake winner; Dubeye is 6 now and the wins have been coming more infrequently, although he put up a win in the G2 Walnut BB last October as a reminder that he can still succeed in tough company. Dubeye either goes for the lead or hangs right behind the leader; rider J. Jacobsson will be hoping that he is entering a period of strong form.
7/1 shot Unpredictably T runs from the 7-slot for trainer xtchamps. The son of Western Fame tends to put his best performances at this distance; his last two wins were stake wins at this distance in January and February at speeds of 106 and 110, the latter being only a point behind the top lifetime speed in the field. The three most recent, graded tries at a mile and 9 furlongs, have not gone so well. Like others in the field this one has done best when not falling too far behind the leaders early. Rider S Jacobsson has been as cold as Lake Malaren in January this year, scoring wins at a mere 6.1% rate. Unpredictably T is the 2nd-ranked turf classic horse in the field. There is much to like about this one and he might be preferred if one could be sure that the 3 most recent efforts can be attributed solely to being in too tough company.
7/1 choice Just Teasing runs from the #6 post for trainer dozaa, a 17.7% lifetime winner. The 4-year-old son of Fusaichi Pegasus has put together an impressive 4 months competing against older horses, highlighted by 110, 109 and 108 perforances at this distance. The 110 is a point below the field’s lifetime best. Last out, 6 weeks back, this one tried his stuff against graded company, taking the lead and being caught late, somewhat surprisingly by two mile-specialist runners, to finish 3rd in the G3 Royal Calm in Florida at 10/1. This one may still be improving at 4; there may be no one else trying for the lead; this one might well hold up a little longer Saturday and go wire-to-wire. Jockey Hein is having a good year by his standards, winning at a 12.1% pace. With so many here who have done best when not falling too far behind the leader, Hein will likely have this one going all out as soon as the gate opens.
8/1 choice With Your Cries runs from the 2-slot for the kaif014 barn, which boasts a lifetime 22.6% winning percentage. The 4-year-old scratchbred son of Not For Love (x Mr. Livermore x Secretariat) has been mostly racing at 9 and 9.5 furlongs since November and cuts back a bit Saturday. Tossing aside a mile try in December, these most recent 5 events have produced 3 wins and 2 third-place finishes. Last out this one was another competitor in the G3 Boogity Bear in North Florida coming on late to finish 3rd at 11/1. The 111 speed produced there (at 9 furlongs) is equal to the field’s best at today’s distance. This one has won taking the lead and won stalking the leader and, like some others here, has not won when falling too far behind the leader early. With Your Cries has been performing up to his odds or beyond them recently; F Stephenson gets the mount.
8/1 choice Opium runs from the inside post for trainer aredneck. The 5-year-old son of Rahy may be classed as an 8.5 furlong specialist, with his 5 most recent lifetime wins coming there. Opium’s last 5 speeds at 8.5 furlongs are 107-111-100-108-106, a stretch which can match anyone here; the 111 is tied for lifetime best in the field. Opium has 3 stake wins and a place at this distance in the last 8 months. There’s nothing lacking in this one’s resume except graded success, and there’s no reason to believe that can’t come Saturday. This one runs a stalk or closing style and has on occasion been able to come from far back; the right guy to choose a running style, track top rider P. Jones, has the mount.
15/1 longshot Galairis runs from the #4 slot for trainer bbrs, associated with the Knightmare operation. The son of Alphabet Soup has 2 lifetime allowance wins at this distance and the 104 speed put up last out is this one’s fastest in 9 months. Galairis has been showing an on/off pattern, alternating strong and weak performances since last August; if the pattern continues, Saturday is scheduled to be an off day. This 4-year-old could still be improving and it would not need a huge uptick in performance to put this one among the leaders in this field. This one has taken the lead or hung back a bit; S. Marts has the mount.