Pinhead Guild Stakes Preview

THE PINHEAD GUILD STAKES

9F (Dirt) Grade II Purse 200,000

The Pinhead Guild stakes has a name, which to the unwashed masses, belies the rich tradition of this race. Over the past several years the winners have been multi-millionaire giants.  During the last 4 incarnations of this mile and a 16^th race the winner has been the top earner in the field.  Fly For Buhda (2007), Tempest (2006), Slither (2005) and Birchwood Medway (2004) all showed their back class and took their respective fields to school.  Will this year’s race be any different?  Well on Saturday we will find out if the 3 millionaires and 1 near millionaire separate themselves from the other top contenders.  Invading Illinois are some of the finest older horses in training; once again the Pinhead will be loaded with talent.  For the winner, this race will likely be a stepping stone up to Grade 1 glory, for others this race may seal their fate as aging heroes or brand them as not yet ready.

When I arrived at the jewel of the Midwest, the crisp air carried the smell of spring, mixed with the nervous sweat of connections who knew how crucial this race was to the future of their prized horses.  You really could cut the tension (or maybe it was just dense fog) with a knife.  Grooms were testy and secretive; trainers stalked the track with purpose. I knew right away this race would be fiercely contested, a no holds barred grudge match ready to be etched into the annals of Pinhead Guild Stakes history.

The Field:

MAMBO BONES jrogue5 — World class trainer JRogue (18% win rate in 17k plus races) has the 9-2 favorite, the #5 ranked older router in simland.  Mambo Bones is coming off back to back Grade I seconds, unable to catch Gracepointe Prayer or Winter Morn in his last two.  His speed figures, earnings and running style make him the classiest horse in the field.  Word of caution to the other jocks in this race objects in your rear view mirror may be closer and moving quicker than you think. Especially if they are wearing the number 9!  It would shock no one if Mambo Bones dances out of the clouds late and gets his picture taken afterwards.

Privledged Dixiedotco Racing – Privileged’s connections were wondering what criteria this rookie reporter was using to determine that Mambo Bones was the classiest horse in the field (I told you things were a bit tense down here) and I assured them I was relying solely on the national rankings.  They thought total earnings might be a better way to gauge class, and if you used that stat Privleged would get the back class award going in.  1.7 million in earnings is plenty worthy of praise.  At 10-1 he looks a value play.   He is also going to be towards the back and will likely have to out kick Mambo Bones to win.  The number 4 will need his A game to do that, but at his best he is more than capable.

The Topicount Stables entry is King Of The Wind.  The 8 horse is a bit of an enigma.  His speed figures match up with the best in the race, but his last several high SPF’s have still found him off the board.   Are those numbers to be believed or are they merely the side effect of some fast opponents.  King of the Wind likes to close as well but from a bit closer than the first two and should be well positioned to get the jump on his main rivals.  However, I fear he may caught betwixt and between in this race and could be too close to the pace to outkick them.  At 7-1 you’d be foolish to leave him out of your exotics though. Although I am and I will be.

The late blooming Staff Trouble starts in post position two and is the third millionaire in this race. It seems clear this one is just hitting his stride.  The Zaza Stables may have been the only ones who knew what they had before his monster second in the G1 Delaware Mile (SPF 119) back in December.  Now they are hoping this one move monster has the legs to stretch out from the excellent miles he has been turning in.  At 7-1 morning line there are many who think the extra click on his odometer will be to his liking.  If it is he might out run this field and delight his connections. If he isn’t fading in the stretch he might just do it.

As we descend from the ranks of the millionaire we don’t have to step down much to reach the second choice in the race Manius The Mighty.   The 5-1 shot is no stranger to 110+ spf’s.  He had a 113 in his open length allowance score last out.  The 5 year old will wear the Winterfell silks and leave from the 6 hole.  He is trained by the very shrewd War Emblem. He looks to be coming into this race tight and on the muscle.   It is very possible that this one could be put on the lead and if the others forget about him a wire to wire score may loom. The second choice and wise guy pick.

The stalking Thundering Thief is leaving from post 11, and may have to live up to his name to steal this one.  The Pgpg Stables have a real nice horse which no doubt fits speed wise, but lacks a bit in wallet. If the Pinhead’s history of rewarding back class is the model, then this one might be in the second tier.  Luckily for the connections his 9-1 morning line indicates the past is merely a guide to the future and Thundering Thief is just as liable to upset the apple cart as play second banana.

To use a poker analogy, Grimlock comes in short stacked but has the momentum of the best hand last out.  His 227,000 in lifetime earnings makes him a pauper in this group (it is a very nice field) but his 116 in the GIII Smart School Cap has his Cobra Kai connections feeling awfully sharp.  Padre Bri and company felt hey may get an uncontested lead in this race, but they could not have been happy about drawing the far outside post. Leaving hard from gate 12 may compromise this 10-1 shots chance of going gate to wire.  However despite the tough starting position, the whispers around this one stalls are confident ones, stating War Emblem’s Manius The Mighty doesn’t have quick enough feet to match strides with them early. If he gets loose on the lead Grimlock may be a mortal lock.

Al Hirt is bumping up in class and will need his best to stay with these. Leaving from the rail at 12-1, he is coming back off of an off performance. He has not had great success at the graded level but has an excellent listed stakes record. Zoomr Stables are hoping the 2 mile race in his last out put this one at prime fighting weight to spring an upset. If he turns back the clock to his Grade II score back in 06 he has what it takes.

I’m Easy Money is another one who is just rounding into his top form. After a lightly regarded three year old campaign, highly regarded trainer Kaif’s 4 year old exploded on the scene in the Volotile Seattle challenge at 13 furlongs. When I asked him about his chances Kaif said simply “I am winning this race”. The 10 horse cemented his status as “on the come” with a 114 chasing home Grimlock in the Smart School Cap G3.  He likes to come from mid pack in a rush, like many others in this race (this one may look like a Calvary charge at the quarter pole). Kaif rarely put his nice ones in over their head so don’t be shocked if I’m Easy Money is cashing tickets for you at a healthy 10-1 when he crosses the wire.

Toplight Stables has a top flight horse in Cool Bluff, who arrives in the Pinhead off a monster run in the J.O. Senior Stakes.  His 116 is a warning shot to the richer connections in this race.  At 7-1 he will certainly be a pace factor and is in great position to have the race his own way. Leaving from just inside the main speed from the gate 11, he is situated to be on or near the lead. This is just where Cool Bluff wants to be.  You’ll have to decide whether his presence in this race is a cool bluff or slow playing a big hand (we have played a lot of cards while here in Illinois). Call against the Toplight connections bet at your own risk. 

The renowned Oneworld Stables are trying the classic turf to dirt move while bumping up to a Grade II. Loading into Post position 3, Bahzzene does not seem to have the speed or class of other horses in the field. However when a trainer has been saddling horses since week 646, you take a big risk when you doubt ‘em (especially a cub reporter for the BTB).  On PP’s alone he is a questionable fit in this race, but the word is his trainer quitter has been out very early working this one and may have a trick or two up his sleeve. A wild card at 24-1.

Keely’s Stables trainer KB Sweet is clearly wondering just how good her Kiwi’s Fiance is.  In the midst of all the bravado and testosterone she has remained quietly confident.  The five horse is another slow starter who has recently made a name for himself as a sprinter,  and turned in a very nice mile in his last out.  He has never gone 9F in a stakes race and thus question marks abound as the 14-1 morning line would indicate.  Is Kiwi’s Fiancé just here for the beer, or does he have bigger ideas, you’d have to have some inside information to like him here and I am not in the know.

No one has been more secretive or more security conscious than the Tapered Stables.  I nearly got planted in a pile of manure when I tried to get a look at their charge; 98-1 shot My Little Dragon. Da Dragon as his groom refers to him, comes into the Pinhead with a stakes record that could fit on the head of a pin.  In fact My Little Dragon has not been stakes placed since his dazzling 2 year old campaign back in 06. Tapered’s narrowing chances seem slimmed further by the drubbing My Little Dragon took in his last out; a 25k claimer (13^th by 12 lengths).  Not sure of the play here but he has drawn into the 7 hole and probably gets a view of some very fine horse’s tails.