BLUEGRASS DERBY – 2008
Before going on to the main article, look over the trend analysis chart for this years Bluegrass Derby.
2008 Bluegrass Derby Trend Analysis
This week we will take a look at Bluegrass Derby trends and how they might relate to this years Run for the Roses.
Picking winners using trends is only slightly better than flipping a coin to decide the winner. Some folks swear by trends others swear at them, and I expect that anyone with a horse in the Bluegrass with a favorable trend will be of the former opinion, while the latter will scoff at the data and relish in the idea of bucking the trend.
Trends are simply an assumption of historical data that predict similar results in the future when the situation arises again. It wasn’t until the end of the 2002 football season, after 20 consecutive losses, that the Tampa Bay won their first football game when the temperature at kickoff was below 40 degrees. Not only did the Bucs play poorly in cold weather, over a span of 15 years they lost 27 games in a row played on artificial turf in outdoor stadiums. Now what you have to decide is; are those significant trends, or were the Bucs just that bad.
Just the same, trends are fun to look at, and if there is a Derby contender out there that can poke some holes into these trends, perhaps start a new one, more power to him. With the anticipation of three of the top twenty scratching from the Derby, let’s do a trend analysis for the top 23 contenders likely to be starting in the Bluegrass Derby.
The first trend we will look at is….
The last six Bluegrass winners won their final prep:
A total of 10 of the top 23 Derby contenders have won their final prep. This is of added significance since 8 of the 10 were Lock Race winners and will have an extreme advantage based on this category if it was judged on its own merit. The remaining two are, THE GUN WENT OFF(KY), who will opt for the Adelaide Derby and LUCKY’S MASH(ENG), who will come up short in other trend categories. PRO MON(KY), who qualifies in every trend category, may have been aided by the off going last time out. ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY), TRADING JACK(KY), and TAP DANCES(KY), all qualifiers in this category don’t qualify in every category and gain no advantage here..
ADVANTAGE: WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY), SNARKY REMARK(IRE), FOLSOM BLUES(KY), and SUNSET MESA(KY).
The last six Bluegrass winners had at least 28 days between their last start and the Bluegrass:
It is important to note that this trend is consistent over the past six years and prior to that time the game was played very differently and horses could run pretty regularly with little worry of wear and tear. This is a trend that works against Lock Race winners ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY) and TAP DANCES(KY), perhaps an indication that the rigorous campaign of the Derby Trail takes a lot of run out of a horse come Derby day.
ADVANTAGE: While this category doesn’t give any real advantage to any one particular horse, it does suggest a disadvantage to those that don’t qualify.
EVERY Bluegrass winner had at least one 9f win before they won the Bluegrass:
This particular category carries a lot of weight in my analysis since every past Derby winner has qualified under this criterion. Especially significant is the fact that these colts will be asked to run further than they have ever gone before, and while winning at 9 furlongs doesn’t necessarily mean they will get 10, it sure helps. Of the 8 Lock runners only TRADING JACK has failed to accomplish that task. Other significant exceptions to this criterion is FLEET DAISY(KY), the Eclipse award winner and Breeder Bowl juvenile champion, GHOST IN A DANCER, runner up in the Wooden Indian, and BROADWAY DANCER, winner of the World Cup Juvenile Mile.
ADVANTAGE: WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY), SNARKY REMARK(IRE), FOLSOM BLUES(KY), and SUNSET MESA(KY).
Five of the last Six Bluegrass winners had won a Grade 1 prior to the Derby
The significance here is in winning the highest class of race by the standards of the racing industry. This is a trend that could see change over the next few years, as two of the Lock races are of the Grade II variety, however these races will still attract some of the best competition racing has to offer. Both TRADING JACK and TAP DANCES fall victim to the racing secretary’s grading of these lock races, however neither has yet to prove that they can’t beat a Grade I field. On the other side of this arguement, Grade I winners of the World Cup races may gain an advantage in a G-1 event that is carded for restricted runners, and may have excluded some of the top runners that were racing at that time.
Other significant exceptions are URBAN STORM CAT, runner up in the G-1 Eruption handicap and SHETAN, runner up in the G-1 California Derby, and 3rd place finisher in the Movieland Futurity.
ADVANTAGE: FOLSOM BLUES(KY), winner of the G-1 California Derby, 2nd G-1 Ring of Fire, FLEET DAISY, winner of the G1-Breeders Bowl Juvenile Race Breeders Bowl Juvenile, 2nd in G1-World Cup Juvenile Colt Mile – Restricted, and 3rd in G1-Hoserhead Juvenile.
Seven of the eight previous Bluegrass winners ran a triple digit speed prior to the Derby
It seems like everyone is running triple digits these days, interestingly enough, the most significant exception to this trend is FLEET DAISY, arguably the top class horse in the field. If the 2007 Juvenile Champion is saving it up, heads up to the competition on Derby Day, he just might run the race of his life.
ADVANTAGE: None.
Every previous Bluegrass winner broke their maiden in either their first or second start
This is what would appear to be such an insignificant trend, however it stands true of every Bluegrass winner. Exceptions are Arkansas Juvenile Lock race winner TAP DANCES, who waited until his 3rd start to break his maiden, albeit after two failed attempts on the Turf, while GRATEST and LUCKY’S MASH waited until their 4th and 3rd start respectively.
DISADVANTAGE: GRATEST and LUCKY’S MASH
Every Bluegrass winner but one had a Dosage Index under 4.00
Believe in Dosage or not, the trend holds up, and this does not bode well for Lock Race winner ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY), DI 4.14 CD 1.17, and JESUS WALKS(KY), who will skip the Derby in favor of the Derby Trial. Others with a dosage index not considered favorable for 10 panels are, PYRALIS(KY) and DE FU(KY).
ADVANTAGE: FOLSOM BLUES(KY), FLEET DAISY(KY), URBAN STORM CAT(KY), SUITED AK(JPN), ALYDAR AGAIN(KY), and ZABEEL WARRIOR(AUS), all of who have a dosage profile suited to longer distances.
The last trend qualifier is that only one Bluegrass winner has ever gone off at odds greater than 15-1. We won’t know the odds until the race is carded. The chart above indicates the morning line odds, and reflects those odds in the final analysis. Large fields will always attract greater odds so this is a trend that may not hold much weight as years go by. Still only 1 of 9 is pretty significant, and while it won’t eliminate a lot of horses, it will make it easier eliminating some horses in what will prove to be an extremely competitive field.
In my final analysis, based solely on trends of past Bluegrass Derby’s there are 5 horses that qualify in every trend category not counting the odds trend, WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY), SNARKY REMARK(IRE), FOLSOM BLUES(KY), SUNSET MESA(KY), and PRO MON(KY). The first to be eliminated from my selections, and most likely of this group to be over 15-1 in odds is PRO MON(KY), whose lone win outside of a MSW came over a sloppy Dubai racecourse. Secondly, and somewhat reluctantly, to be eliminated will be SNARKY REMARK(IRE), who caught a slow group in New York and would be on the outside looking in with another bob of the head in the Wooden Indian.
This leaves WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY), FOLSOM BLUES(KY), and SUNSET MESA(KY). Any of these three are capable of bringing home the roses on the first Saturday in May, and all the time and effort put into trend analysis brings us right back to where we started, a coin flip. WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY) has been simply sensational, stubbing his toe only once in seven career race starts. SUNSET MESA(KY) is in the capable hands of topicount and turned in a spectacular effort winning the Florida Derby going around two turns for the first time in his career. It would be no surprise if either of these horses got to the wire first in Kentucky, but their slightly higher dosage index will turn my direction the lenny’s FOLSOM BLUES(KY). The Fusaichi Pegasus colt has also been near perfect with the only bump in the road coming in a 2nd place finish in the G-1 Ring of Fire Special. With a near perfect dosage of DI 2.50 CD .76 for classic distances I will make FOLSOM BLUES(KY) my top choice in this years 2008 Bluegrass Derby.
Good luck to all the runners in what will prove to be a very competitive Bluegrass Derby. One thing is for certain, when the starter hits the bell, and the starting gate opens, nobody will be thinking about any past trends, and when the winner crosses the finish line he will make history, and either continue nine years of trends, or perhaps become a new trend setter.
trot