GRADE-3 CEO CLASSIC
Kentucky (KY)
Saturday, April 16, 2022 — 2:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2801417
CEO Classic
Grade III / Group 3*CPU – Purse : $150,000
Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older
12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half Firm Turf
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 04/15/2022):
| total races | 101 | total horses | 1404 | ||||
| underlays | 356 | wins | 28 | places | 32 | show | 25 |
| win % | 7.865% | place % | 8.989% | ||||
| avg win pay | $15.98 | avg plc pay | $8.31 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.74 | place ROI $ | -$0.60 | ||||
| overlays | 404 | wins | 47 | places | 39 | show | 33 |
| win % | 11.634% | place % | 9.653% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.04 | avg plc pay | $12.45 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $1.03 | place ROI $ | $0.65 | ||||
| non-select | 644 | wins | 26 | places | 30 | show | 43 |
| win % | 4.037% | place % | 4.658% | ||||
| avg win pay | $29.43 | avg plc pay | $13.57 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.81 | place ROI $ | -$0.82 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 12 | JUST MIX IT UP | PACE | 4.63% | SPEED | 2.54% | CLASS | 1.57% | BET VALUE | 53.66% |
| trainer | hotraces3 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … JUST MIX IT UP became a turf runner in his final race as a 5-year-old with a stunning Open Stake win, recording a solid 113.906 speed figure. His subsequent Grade-1 follow up last race was an uninspired 9th place finish 17 lengths beaten. Those 2 races are his entire turf back history, which makes JUST MIX IT UP a real wild card horse today, 12-1 odds normally are generous, but they’re an underlay against credentialed Graded Stake runners.
| 2 | 12 | RED DOG B | PACE | 8.77% | SPEED | 9.41% | CLASS | 5.23% | BET VALUE | 112.70% |
| trainer | volunteer | RANK | 7 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … first off, you have to respect the fact that RED DOG B has never been worse than 5th in 14 lifetime races, unfortunately that 5th was last races against Open Stake company. The 5th place finish was a bit of a “bounce” coming on the heels of his 1st Open Stake win in 6 tries at that level. RED DOG B is a consistent sort so a good comeback effort wouldn’t surprise, he’s decent odds at 12-1 and has a good shot at earning a purse share.
| 3 | 4.5 | WHAT IT MEANS | PACE | 9.60% | SPEED | 9.38% | CLASS | 6.31% | BET VALUE | 52.93% |
| trainer | tseals16a | RANK | 5 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … it’s hard to argue that WHAT IT MEANS has a good record, he’s won 7 of 21 lifetime starts and has earned a purse slice in all but one of them. What he hasn’t done is recorded a win at any Stake level. WHAT IT MEANS has 3 2nd place efforts in his 5 Open Stake tries, including his last race where he produced a fine 117.231 speed rating. He’s also faded in the stretch in 5 of his last 6 races, all between 9 – 11 furlongs, at 4.5-1 odds he’s pretty overvalued, he’s a prime contender but at those odds a pass at the bet window!
| 4 | 7 | CHANNELING LONGER | PACE | 10.92% | SPEED | 7.50% | CLASS | 16.26% | BET VALUE | 103.78% |
| trainer | lgyetanother1 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … possessor of “blazing” early speed, a Grade-2 winner at 12 furlongs and he’s even won Open Stakes at 16-furlongs. Even though CHANNELING LONGER has faded late on occasion, he’s a proven distance runner that’s capable of winning wire to wire every race. Only twice in 17 lifetime races has CHANNELING LONGER failed to lead at 6-furlongs so it’s safe to say any other runner has to go through him to win. His 7-1 odds are fair and you need to include him on all bets!
| 5 | 11 | BKR RULERSHIP | PACE | 3.58% | SPEED | 7.97% | CLASS | -12.91% | BET VALUE | 8.30% |
| trainer | cancun3 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … after winning 9 of his (to then) 18 lifetime starts, BKR RULERSHIP was entered in the Grade-1 Japan Classic, one of the most prestigious races in the Sim, he finished a respectable 4th in the 15-horse race, only beaten 3 lengths. For some unfathomable reason that led to tailspin that has seen BKR RULERSHIP finish 10th, 13th and 11th, beaten an average of 20 lengths, needless to say we need to see proof of turning that around before recommending.
| 6 | 6 | RED KORNSNAKE | PACE | 10.18% | SPEED | 10.96% | CLASS | 42.83% | BET VALUE | 184.13% |
| trainer | vettstars | RANK | 4 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … there’s no question about RED KORNSNAKE’S class credentials in this field, he’s already won 3 Graded Stakes, including the Grade-1 Sword Swallower and all 3 are at 12 furlongs on the turf. It will really be interesting to see how well he can handle the ultra-speedy competition he faces today as he was outdueled early in the Grade-1 Breeders Bowl Turf. He’s been rested 5 months, so he should be fit, ready and a real danger to win at 6-1.
| 7 | 23 | UGWU | PACE | 9.52% | SPEED | 5.86% | CLASS | 16.83% | BET VALUE | 296.58% |
| trainer | barcelona1 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … UGWU is a one-dimensional speed runner, he runs hard early for the lead and how close he comes to leading usually determines the success of his finish position. He won a 14-furlong Open Stake wire to wire in his 4th last race back, the highlight race in his 12 race career. I’m not sure he’ll be able to outgun the high caliber speedsters in this field, but getting 23-1 odds has some value, worth a small wager at those odds.
| 8 | 8 | NODOUBT FRANK | PACE | 3.97% | SPEED | 8.04% | CLASS | 1.21% | BET VALUE | 63.61% |
| trainer | allfranks | RANK | 11 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … he’s a confirmed closer and has been stellar against allowance level competition, but so far NODOUBT FRANK hasn’t been able to translate that success against Stake level runners. That may change, his last race against Open Stake runners saw NODOUBT FRANK charge hard through the stretch to finish 2nd, earning a lifetime best 113.478 speed figure. He’s no bargain at 8-1 odds though, if there’s a very brisk early pace, I really like his chances to rally late for a purse slice!
| 9 | 8 | THANKUFORTHEVENOM | PACE | 3.05% | SPEED | 8.25% | CLASS | -0.60% | BET VALUE | 58.34% |
| trainer | sremel63 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … you could make the case that THANKUFORTHEVENOM is a bit better dirt runner than turf. He’s earned more $ per start and his only Graded Stake win was on dirt, but he is a fairly accomplished turfer also. His “best” career race came exactly 1 year ago in this very same Grade-3 CEO Classic, where he rallied in the stretch to earn 2nd place, only missing the win by 1 length. THANKUFORTHEVENOM’S didn’t reach contention his last 2 races and at 8-1 he’s no betting bargain, needs to recapture old “mojo” to repeat last year’s effort!
| 10 | 21 | GREATEST GLORY | PACE | 4.31% | SPEED | 2.19% | CLASS | 1.07% | BET VALUE | 100.54% |
| trainer | liam7 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … he’s a lightly raced 4-year-old who’s been improving every race and really seems at home at the 12 furlong distance. GREATEST GLORY has a very strong stretch move which should serve him well, especially if there is a really fast paced speed duel early, which is very possible with this field. He’s not yet proven against this class of horse, his Open Stake win was against a small 5 horse Residency filed, he finished a well beaten 8th against Open Stake company. I think GREATEST GLORY needs a bit more seasoning before making an impact at this level but his 21-1 odds are fair and a good late money finish are very possible.
| 11 | 22 | BIG WOOL | PACE | 10.52% | SPEED | 5.66% | CLASS | 5.05% | BET VALUE | 178.42% |
| trainer | golfteam | RANK | 3 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR LEAD
comment … BIG WOOL is another example of the improvement “gelding” a horse can make, after 3 non-descript starts he was gelded and promptly won 3 in a row, he’s an accomplished allowance runner and has been throwing hints that he’s ready to tackle Open Stake company. This field is a big step up and if he wins or even manages a top-5 finish, it could be his coming out race, 22-1 odds, dangerous.
| 12 | 14 | ALL THE BAY AROUND | PACE | 10.68% | SPEED | 7.17% | CLASS | 15.68% | BET VALUE | 195.54% |
| trainer | jeffdrew | RANK | 2 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR LEAD
comment … yet another early speedster in the mix, ALL THE WAY AROUND has spent most of his 20 career starts challenging allowance fields, winning 5 of them. ALL THE BAY AROUND has challenged Stake runners twice, his best race was in the Grade-2 Carlton Fisk Handicap, leading the field to the stretch, he faded late but held on for 3rd. His last effort 3 races ago, he led early but collapsed late and finished 7th of 11. He’s got a lot of early speedsters to battle, not sure if he’s got the stamina to hold together here, at least he’s 14-1.
| 13 | 18 | TZINGHALIS | PACE | 8.10% | SPEED | 10.17% | CLASS | 6.39% | BET VALUE | 197.99% |
| trainer | babysitter274 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION … MID PACK
comment … from a colt running ok dirt races to a real star emerging in the turf world, that’s TZINGHALIS after being “gelded”. He’s really lightly raced 7 races as a 4-year-old but all 4 turf starts were excellent, the only knock is that his 3 allowance wins were against short 4 horse fields, but there was nothing questionable about the fine 2nd place effort, last race, against Open Stake company. TZINGHALIS looks to be positioned very well mid pack to be able to get 1st crack at the early pace casualties. Still plenty of questions about his class “creds” but 18-1 odds make him a viable bet!
| 14 | 7 | ACT QUIST | PACE | 2.18% | SPEED | 4.90% | CLASS | -4.91% | BET VALUE | 29.66% |
| trainer | derekcarlson11 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … veteran runner ACT QUIST bounced against Grade-1 runners last race after 2 strong Open Stake wins. While he’s never finished better than 4th against Graded runners in 5 tries, he’s ran very well in Open Stake events. He closes very late and if he can stay inside of 15 lengths behind at 6 furlongs has a good chance to rally late and finish in the money. It’s hard to get enthused at 7-1 odds given his past performances at this level, maybe.
My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| WHAT IT MEANS | RED KORNSNAKE | |
| NODOUBT FRANK | TZINGHALIS | |
| THANKUFORTHEVENOM | CHANNELING LONGER | |
| ALL THE BAY AROUND |