GRADE-1 SYDNEY OAKS
Victoria-AUS (VIC)
Saturday, April 16, 2022 — 2:50:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2801430
Sydney Oaks
Grade I / Group 1*CPU – Purse : $750,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds, Fillies Only
12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half Firm Turf
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 04/15/2022):
| total races | 101 | total horses | 1404 | ||||
| underlays | 356 | wins | 28 | places | 32 | show | 25 |
| win % | 7.865% | place % | 8.989% | ||||
| avg win pay | $15.98 | avg plc pay | $8.31 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.74 | place ROI $ | -$0.60 | ||||
| overlays | 404 | wins | 47 | places | 39 | show | 33 |
| win % | 11.634% | place % | 9.653% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.04 | avg plc pay | $12.45 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $1.03 | place ROI $ | $0.65 | ||||
| non-select | 644 | wins | 26 | places | 30 | show | 43 |
| win % | 4.037% | place % | 4.658% | ||||
| avg win pay | $29.43 | avg plc pay | $13.57 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.81 | place ROI $ | -$0.82 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 8 | LUKA’S DATA | PACE | 9.19% | SPEED | 6.91% | CLASS | 13.69% | BET VALUE | 100.48% |
| trainer | ace10 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … steady, consistent runner LUKA’S DATA has been a top-5 finisher in all 8 of her career starts. She hasn’t managed a Stake win but has 2 fine 3rd place finishes in her last 2 starts against Grade-3 company. Luka’s Data will be near the front early and will have 1st crack at the early pace casualties, she’s a fair bet at 8-1 odds!
| 2 | 16 | ARTIC NIPPON | PACE | 12.37% | SPEED | 7.43% | CLASS | 2.86% | BET VALUE | 114.35% |
| trainer | darelsalam1 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … the good news is ARCTIC NIPPON has good early speed and should be part of the battle for the early lead. The bad news is she’s faded late in 4 of her career starts and given the fact ARCTIC NIPPON has challenged stake runners only once and finished 7th in a 7 horse field. Throw in that she’s never raced beyond 9.5 furlongs. Her 16-1 odds would normally be very interesting but she really faces an uphill struggle.
| 3 | 18 | HER VASCULAR ORGAN | PACE | 2.48% | SPEED | 3.39% | CLASS | 1.18% | BET VALUE | 84.25% |
| trainer | jarrod | RANK | 14 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … the 3rd race in HER VASCULAR ORGAN’S career, a 6th place finish in the Grade-3 The Animale wouldn’t normally be cause for enthusiasm, but on closer examination she was coming on late in the 8-furlong event and was only beaten 4 lengths. This suggests she may move forward sometime soon and could relish the 12-furlongs, hard to recommend her though as she’s still eligible for allowance nw-1x.
| 4 | 12 | HOZZIN’S FOLLY | PACE | 6.25% | SPEED | 9.83% | CLASS | 7.61% | BET VALUE | 129.50% |
| trainer | fairhaven8 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … here’s what we know about HOZZIN’S FOLLY, she’s lightly raced, only 4 career starts. She’s won 2 in a row against Maiden and Allowance nw-2L. HOZZIN’S FOLLY runs better as the distances increase so the 12 furlongs shouldn’t hinder her. What we don’t know is if she can move up and compete against Stakes caliber runners, especially graded, another thing we know is she’s 12-1 and a decent bargain, chance to up her game today!
| 5 | 7 | HERZWEINEN | PACE | 4.40% | SPEED | 10.54% | CLASS | 10.43% | BET VALUE | 94.20% |
| trainer | confessor2 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … hard to argue with HERZWEINEN being one of the favorites, given the fact she’s the only Graded Stake winner, Grade-3 Tristan Fillies in the field. HERZWEINEN has never finished out of the money in her 6 lifetime starts and her last 2 speed figures of 98 plus make it hard to see her not a top-3 finisher. HERAWEINEN is 7-1, which are decent odds given her credentials, major player!
| 6 | 9 | SALVISA | PACE | 5.18% | SPEED | 6.68% | CLASS | 3.43% | BET VALUE | 71.55% |
| trainer | atw21 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … with 10 races under her belt SALVISA is the salty veteran in this field, yet it’s not easy to define her chances. She’s finished 3rd against Open Stake company and 5th in her Grade-3 Stake effort. SALVISTA has gained in the stretch in 7 of her races and faded in 3 of them and never raced farther than 10.5 furlongs. She certainly has a chance to move forward and a top-5 finish is in her grasp but at 9-1 odds, she’s also an underlay.
| 7 | 6 | SPACE LAUNCH | PACE | 5.63% | SPEED | 8.12% | CLASS | 3.31% | BET VALUE | 55.65% |
| trainer | redhill24 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … SPACE LAUNCH is a royally bred filly, who’s done pretty much everything she’s been asked to so far. Her only Graded Stake effort wasn’t great, but it wasn’t horrible either and she bounced right back with a real nice 2nd place effort against Open Stake company. SPACE LAUNCH is more than likely going to be a good Graded Stake competitor sometime in the future, now? Today perhaps, but at 6-1 odds you’re paying a real premium to find out, good filly, bad odds!
| 8 | 6 | ROUGH PHARAOH | PACE | 4.76% | SPEED | 12.31% | CLASS | 6.04% | BET VALUE | 77.22% |
| trainer | 46away | RANK | 11 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … all systems seem a go for ROUGH PHARAOH, she’s placed 3rd in Grade-3 company and her last win against Open Stake fillies produced the highest speed figure in the field, an eye-popping 100.598. ROUGH PHARAOH also seems to be getting better as the distances increase. The only thing not to like is the 6-1 odds, they seem a bit light even though she’s a prime candidate to win!
| 9 | 12 | AMERICAN DIPLOMACY | PACE | 5.23% | SPEED | 4.47% | CLASS | 5.92% | BET VALUE | 97.32% |
| trainer | americanasr0 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … she’s proven versatile and has winning ways, notching victories in 5 of her 8 career starts. AMERICAN DIPLOMACY has won on fast dirt, firm turf and good turf, so she performs under most surfaces and conditions. She’s won an Open Stake on the firm turf, about the only question needed to be answered is can she compete at 12 furlongs, as she’s never raced further than 8.5 furlongs. Fair odds at 12-1, a definite possibility today.
| 10 | 10 | BACK TO BLACK LV | PACE | 12.42% | SPEED | 9.14% | CLASS | 23.71% | BET VALUE | 188.00% |
| trainer | xixa0 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … it’s hard to back the really speedy runners at 10-plus furlongs however, BACK TO BLACK LV has some pretty good history that’s hard to ignore. She’s 8 for 8 in the money in her career, her last start the Grade-2 New Zealand Oaks, saw her assume early pace control and hang on until the final 2 furlongs, finishing a respectable 3rd. BACK TO BLACK LV will impact the race early and maybe late also, hard to not include her at generous 10-1 odds!
| 11 | 12 | TEJAY | PACE | 3.46% | SPEED | 2.46% | CLASS | 2.93% | BET VALUE | 72.60% |
| trainer | clk2012 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … TEJAY has tried Open Stake company 4 times in her brief career, a 3rd place finish beaten 10.5 lengths was her best. Her last start against allowance NW-3L found her finishing 2nd with TEJAY cracking the 95 speed figure barrier, a career best. TEJAY has one thing going for her, she has always gained ground in the stretch so the 12-furlong distance might play into her best game. Program has her an underlay at 12-1, if she keeps up her stretch rallying ways, she might surprise.
| 12 | 24 | FRACIN’ THEATRICAL | PACE | 10.96% | SPEED | 2.74% | CLASS | 6.93% | BET VALUE | 183.80% |
| trainer | joffre | RANK | 3 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE EARLY LEAD
comment … all of FRACIN’ THEATRICAL’S 8 starts have been against Canadian state-bred fields. She’s progressed successfully, going through all her conditioned allowances. Now FRACIN’ THEATRICAL is tackling Open Grade-1 company, that’s a huge class jump, also she’s hung a few times at 9-furlongs and shorter, so the 12-furlong distance is a question. She’s got a lot to overcome, but 24-1 are awful good odds for a runner who’s always finished top-3.
| 13 | 10 | BETHELRIDGE | PACE | 9.71% | SPEED | 7.35% | CLASS | 6.19% | BET VALUE | 101.66% |
| trainer | atw19 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … BETHELRIDGE likes to closely stalk the early leader, wear them down at 6-furlongs and maintain stride to the wire, that’s the formula she’s used in all 3 of her career wins. Last race was her 1st against Open Stake runners, she couldn’t hold on to the early pace and slowly drifted back to finish 7th of 9. Lots of decent speedy fillies in this field and 3 more furlongs to navigate, have to make you wonder if BETHELRIDGE can position herself for success, fair odds at 10-1 but lots of things need to fall right.
| 14 | 11 | UP TO YOUR NECK | PACE | 7.95% | SPEED | 8.61% | CLASS | 5.78% | BET VALUE | 115.96% |
| trainer | cjt | RANK | 6 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … it’s been an odd up and down career so far for UP TO YOUR NECK, her 1st 2 races were against Open Allowance and Open Stake runners and she won them both. Those are her only 2 wins as she was entered against Grade-1 and Grade-2 company her next 4 starts, with only a 3rd to show. Her next 2 starts were 4th place efforts against Open Stake runners, when suddenly last race, UP TO YOUR NECK ran a surprisingly spirited 2nd against Grade-2 runners at today’s 12-furlongs distance. Her odds of 11-1 are fair and given her last big effort, she’s a sleeper pick today!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| HERZWEINEN | BACK TO BLACK LV | |
| ROUGH PHARAOH | LUKA’S DATA | |
| SPACE LAUNCH | HOZZIN’S FOLLY | |
| UP TO YOUR NECK |