Tenth annual Fedirico Stakes draws 13
1:48 flat. That’s what it will take just to equal the stakes record of the G2 Fedirico Stakes, a 9f event for 3yos in Maryland on the main track. Hawkster’s Wells, the current record-holder, set that excellent time back in 2004 and while we do have some nice colts in this field, so far none have come within a full second of the mark. With the 3yo crop really improving right about now, could we seesome colt come from nowhere to earn a stakes record of his very own?
Although he’s not favored, Suited AK gets first mention here because of the effect of this race on his immediate future. If he wins, he moves into the top 20 and gets a chance to run for the roses in Bluegrass country in a couple weeks. If he hits the board, he probably slides in, but a loss, means he needs others to drop out in order to make the starting gate on Derby Day. It’s a tall order for the David Junior colt, who’s finished very poorly his last two starts. Add in he’s never won at the graded level, and it seems the obstacles may prove insurmountable for Chilichili’s colt. But here’s why I think Suited has a fighting chance: his best SP was posted at 9f (in the G1 Arizona Diamond), and he lost that by a slim nose. He’s also got great experience in big races versus big horses, and while we do have some good colts entered, they aren’t exactly the cream of the 3yo crop. 10-1.
Our morning line favorite, the 6-1 Held Two Ransom, has been running well if not spectacularly in graded company.This should prove an easier race, giving him a chance to taste graded victory. The War Front colt, trained by Marineboy, hasn’t won since November, but he did pick up third in the Chicago Derby two weeks ago, albeit losing by seven lengths at 9f. Have to like his top SP of 99 earned in Chicago. Add that to his 4-race string of 95+ figures and he’s got a good base of speed under him. Big question really is if he’s got the chops to actually win in a big race.
Although at 7-1 he’s not favored, Guest Hunter ETS has an impeccable 9f record. In four tries, he has three wins, and the lone loss can be excused due to a wet track. Have to really like the 100 he popped last out at 9 in a listed stake to win by 1 1/2 length. The Aptitude colt, trained by Bigted13, has a lovely come-from-behind running style that makes for a visually impressive performance. Clearly adores the distance, and is moving into grades with a solid listed resume behind him. Lots to like about this colt.
Also 7-1 is Kepler Saddath, a handsome and improving youngster by Rock Of Gibraltar. The colt, trained by Bobo, has finished top-3 in each of his last five starts, a remarkable feat. Indeed, Saddath has finished on the board in all but two starts, the lone holdouts being his debut in a turf MSW and his sole try at the graded level in the Arizona Diamond which was run on an off track. Here’s why I like this colt: He’s getting faster at the right time, he clearly prefers to finish ahead of a good chunk of the field as often as possible, and the distance will present no problems.
Although he’s earned 9-1 odds, In House Slew has to still be considered less than a good shot here. Sure, the Include colt has a more-than-decent 98SP on his record. Sure, he has a ground-eating stride that carries him from 10 or more back to the front with ease. Sure, he’s a winner at 9.5f. But, in two graded attempts, he’s lost by a combined 26 lengths. He’s also still nw3l eligible. And unranked, due to not yet having won $40k. This is not to count him out entirely, as a crafty trainer like Graywolf9 will deliberately seek out weak races for their charges, and this is clearly not a super field.
We have another David Junior colt, this time one trained by Drdm. Juniorats has spent half of his six-race career in the mud, leaving few races to understand what the colt is capable of. On fast dirt, he’s stakes placed at 9f and an allowance winner at 8.5f. What I really like is the 98SP he earned last out. A horse that pops a lifetime high like that at the same distance as his current race deserves some extra notice, even if he didn’t win that one. Instead, he ran second to Guest Hunter ETS, suggesting he’s right up there in this company. 10-1.
We have a second ETS horse in the race, this time Vegas Green ETS. Trained out of Teddy2361, the Trippi colt is winless for the year, but his last race was at least a board-finish, albeit a 10+ length loss for third. In Vegas’ favor is his states as a graded-placed runner (in the G3 Cryogenics in September) , but so far he’s striking me as a good 2yo that hasn’t really made much of a leap at 3. Or, could be he’s just not quite up to the challenge of grades. 10-1.
Ascot enters our third 10-1 horse, Flying Bryan. He has a superb dirt record of 3 wins from 4 starts, all run at 8-8.5. In jumping to 9f at the same time as he leaps from allowance to stakes company the trainer is asking a lot. However, the Royal Academy colt has been winning so easily one cannot fault Ascot for grabbing this opportunity. He’s a nice mid-field runner with a steady stretch run, and should benefit from the easier field in this race. If he doesn’t run as well as I suspect he will, watch for Bryan to drop back to listeds and win easily. Top SP of 100 earned last out.
If the race were for longest name, Shamalangadingdong would win in a landslide. However, this battle is contested on the racetrack, and the 11-1 Forestry colt actually has a more than decent chance. Running for the Stormcat55 stable, Shama has an enviable 6:3-2-0 record, including a healthy win at 9f last out in a listed. Shama has a preference for hanging out on the lead, but has been known to take back a bit and still win. The 98 he earned was his best by a decent margin, and perhaps signals the colt is really ready to step it up. Nice shot here.
Subwinner’s Storm Empire has gone nearly seven months winless after picking up a G3 sprint and a listed mile last summer. The Empire Maker colt did manage to pop a 98SP last out in the G3 Winchester Cap, but the ninth place finish was rather uninspiring. In this race, his second off a break, he could potentially be back in shape and ready to roll. Iffy to bet on, but still, Storm deserves a look after the race. If he comes out well, could be a player over the summer. If he doesn’t, it may be time to try the grass. 11-1.
After a dismal graded debut in the All Saints, Layoff’s Mambo Til Ten tries a somewhat easier race. The Rock Hard Ten colt gets 9f for the first time, but as he did win a 9.5f stake two back the distance shouldn’t bother him. He will benefit from the weaker competition, but the 15+ length loss in Louisiana is worrisome. If he can earn a 95 or better and be within eyesight of the winner, that makes the 96 earned in that stake two back look a lot more legit. 11-1.
Newscoobi’s 12-1 runner Plasma jumps to graded company after failing in his listed debut, an odd choice indeed. Guess the 96SP earned at 8.5 last out was good enough to tempt the trainer into throwing the Ghostzapper colt into bigger stuff. He’s a winner at 8.5, and placed at 9f (all in allowance company), which is good. Hard to really predict what he’ll do, but his stalking preference fits in well here, and he’s just fast enough to grab a piece of the pie
Our final entrant at 13-1 is Mrsardis’s Broke Back. The Cat Thief colt has pretty much been running over his head since September. He looked great all summer winning the G3 Cryogenics, a listed stake, and placing in another grade. Then he met the Breeders Bowl, and fell apart. After a long winter layoff he returned in early March for a decent seventh in the G1 Ring Of Fire for a 93SP, but his followup in the G2 Sleepy Fan at 7.5 netted an 81SP. Although his sire isn’t known for throwing turfy runners, the colt might benefit from a try over the green stuff.
Guest Hunter ETS has my vote as the best of the bunch, but Suited AK and Keppler Saddath both have the capability to win. will be interesting to see which of these 13 colts steps it up for a resume-building win.