Ferris Bueller Stakes
Race : Ferris Bueller Stakes – Grade III – $125,000
Track : South Carolina
Restrictions : All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance : Six furlongs on the Dirt
I decided to follow Ferris Bueller’s example and play hooky for a day and enjoy South Carolina instead of going to work. Shhhh, don’t tell Snowchief and Roys, I already have an unacceptable number of absences just like Ferris. Now if I could only figure out how Ferris was able to access the school’s computer and make his absences disappear I might be able to do the same, but I think the BTB has some pretty good security measures set up. I almost got caught when Snowchief and Roys walked into the High Cotton during my lunch (what are they doing in Charleston??), but was able to sneak out with my pecan pie wrapped in my napkin (I couldn’t leave that behind!). I don’t think I will have to worry about anyone checking the miles on the company car, besides Ferris’ plan to get the miles off the 1961 Ferrari 250 GT California that he “borrowed” from his friend’s dad ended in disaster. If you haven’t seen Ferris Bueller’s Day Off I highly recommend playing hooky for a day to enjoy this classic 1980s movie.
Playing hooky was fun, but now it is time to get down to business. The 15th race on the card in South Carolina is the 6 furlong sprint on the dirt for horses 3 years old and up. Looking at the 8 previous Ferris Bueller Stakes doesn’t give many clues as to who might win this year. Half were won wire to wire and the other half by late runners. 5 wins came from experienced graded winners and for 3 it was their first graded win. The favorite has only won once and there has only been one longshot winner. The winner of the annual Count Fingers Sprint – G3 went on to win here in 2003 and 2004, but this year’s winner Mr. Toms River NJ(KY) isn’t in the field today. One thing to watch for: jockey V Webb has won this race 5 times. Looking at the field doesn’t give us that many more clues about who is going to win this either . The vast majority of the horses in the field have very similar odds. Five horses received 8 to 1 against; there are two with better and four just worse. Three out of those 4 have had recent disastrous races that were out of character for the horse and explain the high price. It should be a very close race. Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 SESTRIERE (KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x ALYDAR x ROBERTO) bred and trained by sansebas (Rafa Stables, 14%) Odds: 8 to 1
Closest to the rail is 4 year old Sestriere. He has a G1 win on his resume, although that was his last win and it was 8 months ago. He is the first of the 5 horses in the field given an 11% chance of taking home the win. Like many in the field Sestriere has been consistently putting up speed over the century mark in the last year. Unfortunately, even with the good speed, he hasn’t won many or even finished in the money all that often since last summer. His only finish in the money since his G1 win was late last year and the only non-graded race. His speeds are definitely competitive with the rest of the field, so he definitely has a chance to prove he is capable in this class.
PP 2 POLISH REALITY (POLISH NAVY x GULCH x KNOWN FACT) bred by tcity and trained by simsters4 (The Evil Empire, 20%) Odds: 20 to 1
Looks like Stoners Stables was doing some spring cleaning when they entered Polish Reality in the auction a few weeks ago. The Evil Empire didn’t waste any time snatching up this gem. Polish Reality is a 6 year old out of Knowledge, multiple G1 winner who has brought home almost 1.5 million dollars. He has only raced once in six months. He had a couple bad starts late last summer that resulted in miserable finishes, but Lenny thinks he can pull a few more races out of this horse. Riding Polish Reality is top jockey V. Webb who has won this race 5 times before. Before the two races he struggled in last summer he was consistently putting up triple digit speeds and had a great run in graded and stakes races.
PP 3 E BUDA (E DUBAI x STORM CAT x TANTHEM) bred and trained by chop (Topicount Stables, 15%) Odds: 15 to 1
E Buda is a 4 year old out of Stormy Ant. Like Sestriere, he has won when racing in this class, but that was a year ago. He hasn’t won in almost 6 months and that victory was in an allowance race. He has come close a few times, including his last time out at The PAL LISTEN Stakes, where he came in second in a short field. That race was just three weeks ago, so hopefully rest won’t be an issue for him. Despite having the lowest career high speed in the field with a 108, he is close to the rest of the field, only 6 points off of the leader and Topicount Stables is hoping he is ready to stand in the winner’s circle again against graded company.
PP 4 BIG POPPA PUMP (POINT GIVEN x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by stonecold (Stonecold Stables, 10%) Odds: 13 to 1
Big Poppa Pump is the first of three horses in the field coming off a bad race. In his last time out this 5 year old only managed a 82 SP and was last to cross the finish line. His trainer gave him 6 weeks rest in hopes that he would return with his previous form. Prior to his last race he had 2 wins, 3 seconds and a third in 6 races and his career high speed of 114, also highest in the field. All of those races were either stakes or allowance. Big Poppa Pump, out of Stormy Night, has competed successfully in this class before, winning the G2-Pea Shooters Handicap, but that was almost two years ago. Stonecold is hoping he is able to make the jump in class again. If he can forget his last time out Big Poppa Pump could be very competitive here.
PP 5 GRAND ARBITER (JPN) (AGNES WORLD x GONE WEST x DEPUTY MINISTER bred and trained by lender2 (Deadinthelane Stables, 15%) Odds: 8 to 1
Grand Arbiter is the first of two horses in the field from Deadinthelane Stables. This 4 year old won 6 of his first 8 races, including the G3- Super Bowl Stakes. Unfortunately he hasn’t won since then, just a little over a year ago. He has come close in two other graded races and has been posting speeds similar to the rest of the field. It is interesting that there are so many horses in the field posting speeds around 105 to 110, but very few of them have been winning lately.
PP 6 EARLY PEAK (IN EXCESS(IRE) x STORM CAT x HONEST PLEASURE) bred and trained by stupor8 (Cobra Kai Racing Stables, 16%) Odds: 31 to 1
Despite a disastrous race last time out stupor8 decided to make a class jump for Early Peak. This 4 year old did have 9 weeks of rest since his last race and has raced in graded company before. In his first graded try as a two year old he won the G2-Big Hill Stakes. Cobra Kai Racing Stables tried to stretch him out, but it looks like this brown colt out of More Steer prefers the sprints. He hasn’t been able to bring home another win against graded company since his 2 year old win, I hope that wasn’t an “early peak” for him. When he wins he likes to hang back and then bring it home in the stretch with lots of late speed, but he has only done that once in well over a year.
PP 7 FORTY YARD BOMB (FORTY NINER x FOREST WILDCAT x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE)) bred and trained by chilbound (Fabman Farms, 15%) Odds: 13 to 1
Forty Yard Bomb will be starting out of gate 7. This 5 year old from Fabman Farms, out of Northern Wildcat, is trying for his first graded win. His first attempt in this class was 6 weeks ago at the G3-Count Fingers Sprint where he finished 7th. His trainer dropped him down to stakes in his next time out, but it resulted in his lowest speed ever on dirt and he finished dead last. Although Forty Yard Bomb was putting up very competitive triple digit speed in his three win streak early this year, I am not sure trying graded company again with only a week of rest after his tough time last time out is the best move.
PP 8 SCAT BRAT CAT (KY) (FOREST WILDCAT x DANZIG x HOIST THE SILVER) bred and trained by alroman (Alroman Stables, 13%) Odds: 5 to 1
Scat Brat Cat finished ahead of Forty Yard Bomb last time out, he finished 4th with a 109 SP. He has been consistently putting up speeds around 110 and had a spectacular finish at The DYNAPROSPECTOR Cap. He sat in last place most of the race, just into the turn started to make his move, and then he shot up the stretch to pass the leader and win by a length. This 4 year old out of Lets Go Jenny has won more often on turf and sloppy dirt tracks, but his performance at The DYNAPROSPECTOR Cap showed that he can win on fast dirt, which is what he will have here. With the early speed in the race I think he has a great chance.
PP 9 STORM OF SUNSHINE (STORM CAT x SOUTHERN HALO x VERMONT) bred by steve and trained by mittasille (Ldyssecret Stables, 10%) Odds: 11 to 1
Storm of Sunshine has been consistently putting up triple digit speeds since last summer. This 5 year old scratch bred has already won a graded stakes at the G3-JFK Street last December. He has been racing in this class since, but hasn’t been able to bring home another win. He faced Uzra’s Mitter last time out. Uzra finished third while Storm of Sunshine finished 7th. The majority of his wins have come wire to wire, so he will need a great start out of the gates will probably need to top his career high speed of 110 to win against this field.
PP 10 VAPORIZER (KY) (SKY MESA x GONE WEST x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by tripwire (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 21%) Odds: 8 to 1
This lightly raced 4 year old out of Ma Buda is trying for his first graded win here. His best finished in this class was his third place finish at the G3-Conan the Barbarian Stakes last summer on a sloppy track. He is coming off two wins, first an allowance victory and then he put up his career high speed of 111 in his win at The VIRGINIA AFFAIR Stakes. He tends to let others fight it out for the early lead, running just off the pace and that style might be a huge advantage for him here with so many wanting to race at the front of the pack in this field.
PP 11 WHO DAT SAINT (KY) (SAINT LIAM x SILVER DEPUTY x HALO) bred and trained by champions2 (Home To Over 40 Injuries Since Week 3126, 21%) Odds: 8 to 1
After breaking his maiden first time out with a sizzling speed of 90, Who Dat Saint went on to win his first allowance race by 2 lengths and improving his speed. His trainer then tried him in stakes, but he didn’t seem ready for the competition. Since then he has been steadily winning his allowance races and after his third victory Stoners tried him in stakes again, this time to a victory. He went into The VESSELS PRICE Bonanza as the favorite and finished well ahead of the competition on the sloppy dirt. He is coming off a win in his last time out (allowance) and is making is graded debut here.
PP 12 CARNAVAL (KY) (HENNESSY x AWESOME AGAIN x PULPIT) bred and trained by mindiarte (Rafa Stables, 14%) Odds: 10 to 1
Carnaval is making his graded debut here, the second horse in the field from Rafa Stables. He won The GOLD SEATTLE Handicap in early march for his first stakes victory. He has shown that he likes to run dirt sprints, winning 5 of 17 and finishing in the money 65% of the time. He has only won at this distance once though and that was a year ago. Carnaval has only had three weeks rest, and with the unknown of how he will handle himself in this class, it makes me wonder how he will perform here.
PP 13 URZA’S MITER (JPN) (AGNES WORLD x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by borrow2 (Deadinthelane Stables, 15%) Odds: 8 to 1
Urza’s Miter is trying for his first graded win here. In his last time out three weeks ago at the G3-Burrito Grande Breeders Bowl he finished 3rd against some tough competition. All but two in the field had either a graded win or a graded place. This 4 year old’s career high speed was a 113 in his previous race. He has won 9 of his 21 career starts and he finishes in the money more than ¾ of the time. His worst finish came at the G1- Kingab Sprint Cup where Urza’r Miter was simply out of his league. After dropping down to stakes for a few more successful tries his trainer decided to try jump in class again in his last time out. I think he will be able to improve on his third place finish here.
PP 14 MISS ME YET (KY) (GOLDEN MISSILE x CAPOTE x CURE THE BLUES) bred by surplus2 and trained by metfield (Bucksplash Stables, 18%) Odds: 7 to 1
Miss Me Yet has only finished out of the money twice in 16 months. One was a sloppy track which he didn’t like and the other was a finish just out of the money. Almost all of those races were allowance races. In his two stakes tries his best finish was third. He has raced graded company as a two year old and he just missed being first across the line by ½ length or less twice. Although he is making a jump in class here, it is nice to see a horse with so many wins recently. I think Miss Me Yet is definitely one to watch.
The morning line says Scat Brat Cat, followed by Miss Me Yet and then the five-way tie for 3rd includes Sestriere, Grand Arbiter, Vaporizer, Who Dat Saint, and Urza’s Miter. With so many horses posting similar speeds and many having recent trouble getting the win it is hard to handicap this race. My stab in the dark is Vaporizer for the win, Urza’s Miter and Scat Brat Cat just behind.
“You’re still here? It’s over!” – Ferris Bueller