Big Race Preview 3553

Three races will put at least two new runners in the top twenty of three year olds as everyone is jockeying for position with weeks to go. The Corkscrew and Arkansas are guaranteed to put two new runners in the top twenty while a player bought grade one race could put one more in the top twenty if one of five horses win that race. There is an excellent field of three year old fillies set for final preps before the Oaks and a long distance turf race with an interesting field of older and younger horses.

Race: 3553.0315 Corkscrew Stakes — Derby Lock Prep – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

Three runners via for favoritism in one of the last chances to earn a spot in the Bluegrass Derby. The runner with the best speed figure is Cat Creeper who threw down a 108 speed figure last time out in listed stakes company. That speed figure was a thirteen point jump over his last race. He started out in Kentucky with a maiden and allowance win as a two year old. He seems to be improving quickly but needs to win this race to get into the big dance. Distance does not look like a problem for him. He comes from off the pace so could likely be near the back of the pack early.

Sahara Desert has steadily improved as he has gotten older. He has eleven career races so carries a lot of experience into the race. He has back to back 101 speed figures but looks like he will need to improve off of those figures to compete here. His last race was a solid third place finish in the All Saints Derby so he has had a few extra weeks between races here. That could be what puts him over the hump in this race. He stalked last time out and has some nice tactical speed so look for him towards the front early.

Well Groomed is a runner who has some solid speed figures in listed stakes company. This Seeking the Gold colt shows no early speed in his races and that puts him in tough spots race after race. He earned just his second lifetime win last time out taking a listed stakes with a 101 speed figure. He turns around on two weeks rest for a shot at the Derby which might be a benefit considering his running style. Look for him last early making his run into the stretch.

For a long shot play look to Henry Clay. He has just four races in his young career and probably has the best chance to show dramatic improvement. He is by A.P. Indy out of a Deputy Minister mare so we know distance is no issue and he should get better with age. His first two starts where wins a maiden and an allowance. He would finish fifth in a grade three race and last time out was third in a listed stakes race. He has had a few extra weeks off and should be mid pack early. If he can improve he could surprise.

Race: 3553.1215 lool Oaks – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Pennsylvania
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

The undefeated Minister of Humor leads a pretty evenly matched group of runners into the Lool Oaks. A perfect six for six gives Minister of Humor favoritism here. She has come along nicely winning a maiden and allowance a pair of listed stakes and then a grade three race last time out. She earned a 103 speed figure in her three quarter length victory last time out. Her pedigree suggests she has the stamina but she has never run further than a mile and only had two route races thus far in her career. She is a pace horse as well which may lead one to believe she may be vulnerable in this spot. She was pressured last time out on the pace and stood up to the challenge so until she gets beat you have to believe.

As things stand now Mean Girl will make the Oaks field. She has faced nothing but grade one fields in he last five races. That could mean she might be wearing down or that type of experience is invaluable. Last time out was a good second place finish that earned her a 100 speed figure as she ran second at a shorter distance. Her route form might be a little suspect but she has only been facing the best. She is a stalker type runner that should not be too far off the early pace.

Rattyburg was a two length winner last time out in the California Oaks. She has yet to run one of those big speed figures but her recent performances at this level tell you she will be a factor. She is usually toward the back of the pack but was not far off the pace last time out. She made them pay with a two length win. Prior to that in the grade one Sunny Florida she ran a solid third closing ground from well off the pace. Look at her to be towards the back of the pack and a dangerous closer.

Smell It had a big runner up finish last time out in the grade one Senorita. She closed from dead last to miss by just a half length while earning a 104 speed figure for her effort. That was off a cut back in distance and now she comes back at the same distance. That type of speed figure puts her right in the thick of things here. There will be speed to chase in this race if Smell It is up to the challenge.

Race:  3553.5315 Big Turf Race – Grade I – $400,000
Track: Victoria
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and three quarters on the Turf

A full field have come out for the turf marathon lead by Crimson Sky. He has won his last two starts at this distance including his last race. Both races where listed stakes tries but in both races he earned very nice speed figures. The race two back was in a grade one at a mile and a half where he ran a solid third earning a nice speed figure. He might be a little better at this distance. He likes to come from off the pace where he is usually ten plus lengths off the early pace. The early pace here looks to be live with a couple of front runner types entered. This will be just his third race of the year off a layoff so he could be sitting on a big race.

Footsteps on Grass is not one of the second or third choices but he seems most likely to give the favorite trouble. He is a four year old on the improve easily winning his last two races. His last race was a nice listed stakes win at two miles. His race prior to that was just an allowance win but his 106 speed figure there and his ability to win nicely at two miles in his last race mean he has the talent and the speed to keep up with the favorite. The drop back in distance should be a solid angle for him. He likes to come from off the pace which looks to be a decent one here.

Lucky’s Cent is one of those pace horses in this race. He has the type of speed that can be hard to over come like his run two races back where he was more than fifteen lengths in front of the rest of the field at the half way point of the race. Last time out in a grade one his speed faltered. He got away to a four length lead but did not put up much of a fight the rest of the way finishing seventh twelve lengths from the winner. He has taken a little extra time off and could prove a tough foe on the front end of this race.

Cortez was at the top of his division as a three year old. He won several key grade one races at a mile and a half that year. He has the back class that could put him in the winners circle here. He is in solid form and has had success at this distance. He comes in off a dull run in a grade two at a mile and a half but prior to that he was right there in longer stakes races. The speed in this race could be the thing that gives him a chance. He will likely be positioned off the speed but just ahead of the big closers. A return to old form would put him in the winners circle.

Race: 3553.0614 Arkansas Juvenile — Derby Lock Prep – Grade II – $275,000
Track: Arkansas
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

This is not a grade one race however one of these horses will make the Bluegrass Derby field in three weeks. We have co favorites and they have drawn the two most outside posts which at the real Arkansas track are no mans land.

Dollis Hills is currently ranked twenty first in stakes points. He needs to win to secure a spot in the Derby. A second place finish would not earn him enough points to make the field. He is coming off a nice win in the grade two Sleepy Fan stakes. He sat mid pack and made a run into the stretch for a length and a half victory. A mid pack type run from the out side post here might not be ideal. His speed figures have been solid but someone here could clearly step up and take him down. For Dollis Hills it is put up or shut up time.

Fall Out Boy is the other favorite in this race. He has actually beaten Dollis Hills in the past when he won the grade three Giant Slayer Classic. He has a third place finish in a grade one as a two year old and looking back his trainer might be kicking him self for not racing him a little more often. He is currently ranked thirty first and needs the win to qualify for the Derby but may a race or two would have put him in a better position to make the Derby. He also likes to run near mid pack and his last four starts have all come from outside posts.

Tap Dances has the kind of speed all closers and stalkers fear. He has a favorable inside post and has already proven he does not need the lead to win a race. Last time out he did go gate to wire earning a 104 speed figure while winning a listed stakes. He was under pressure the whole race showing guts. He rides a three race win streak into this event for a stable that is no stranger to big races. Look for Tap Dances near or on the early pace a danger to the favorites.

Race: 3553.0216 Win The Crowd And Rome Will Follow Derby – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Florida
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and three sixteenths on the Dirt

This is a player bought grade one event three weeks prior to the Derby. It is a last ditch effort to make the Derby field for five runners. Only five of the fourteen runners entered here could possibly earn enough stakes points with a win to crack the top twenty runners. With two more Derby lock races this week that have no top twenty contenders that means those two winners will go into the top twenty. It is going to take about 146 stakes points to crack the top twenty. With the winner of a grade one race earning 128 points only those runners that entered this race with more than 18 stakes points have a chance to crack the top twenty. Only Riverbender, Good Bad Ugly, Lucky’s Mash, Ucantbreakmyspirit, and Power March have a shot.

Good Bad Ugly is the favorite here and one of the five able to make the Derby with a win. He is a runner that has come along as a three year old. His first race of the year was a solid win in listed stakes with a 104 speed figure in January. He was flat in his next start in the All Saints Derby running an even fouth. That has set him up for a must win to make the Derby field in this event. He has the pedigree to excel in this race, and the dull effort is out of the way. He likes to run towards the back of the pack and looks like he is set up for a good performance.

The race was likely carded for Ucantbreakmyspirit. He draws the top jock at the track and is also one of the five runners here that with a win could make the Derby field. If it had not taken four races for him to break his maiden who knows where this horse could be. In two of his maiden defeats he was beaten by runners who went on to be stakes winners including a graded stakes winners so he was keeping good company as a youngster. He really started to show his talent in his last two races both wins. One an allowance and the other a listed stakes win. Last time out he was left alone on the lead and he made them pay earning a 108 speed figure going gate to wire. He can sit off the pace but will likely be a part of the pace here. If he continues to improve he could make the Derby.

Lucky’s Mash looks to become the second foal from his dam to make the Bluegrass Derby. Last year his full brother Lucky’s Capitol won a couple of preps and made the Derby and this year Lucky’s Mash is in a position to also make the field. Lucky’s Mash has had two fifth place finishes in graded stakes along the Bluegrass trail. His deep closing style has left him with too much to do in the late stages of races. He could easily make that closing kick this week but does contend with a good speed horse in this race.