Equinics – Mexican Grey Wolf

Likely a Lone Wolf in the Mexican Grey Wolf

By Sremel

1.  THEWAYOFTHEFORCE  5yo Horse  13: 9-3-0 $12,001,835     3-1

Scratch:  PIONEEROF THE NILE x DANZIG x KINGMAMBO

Residency:  GR Simsters

Trainer:  fairhaven9

Breeder:  fairhaven9

Lightly raced, there is nothing light about this horse’s accomplishments.  With only thirteen starts and a newly minted five year old, patience has been the name of the game.  Nine wins with four Grade 1 and a Grade 2 to his name he has mostly been on cruise control.  HIs win in the 2021 Breeders Bowl by two and a quarter lengths with a 121 speed figure suggests this colt has even more to offer at this distance.  His highest speed figure was 123, also posting it while winning by open lengths.  This guy really has not been tested while on his game.  His losses have all been mildly head scratching and seems to be a case of just not quite getting there.  Should be the easy favorite looking to ass another feather to his already full cap.

2.  PRIVATE BAKKEN  4yo Colt  9: 2-4-1 $110,110     54-1

Scratch:  BAKKEN x GENERAL MEETING x PRIVATE ACCOUNT

Residency:  Canadian Thoroughbred Residency

Trainer:  kingcan5

Breeder :  mctracey9

This colt is another gently handled animal with almost all of his starts coming in local competition, in which he has yet to break through.  His last start just over a month ago saw a large jump in speed figures from his preferred closing style and at the course distance.  Having just turned four he may continue to see solid jumps in figures but I am not sure they will get him there in this spot.  Young and improving this is a huge step up in class into open company and right into graded.  

3.  NOT HONORABLE   5yo Horse  17: 4-2-4 $146,989     12-1

Mare:  TAPIT x STREET CRY x NORTHERN DANCER

Residency:  Midas

Trainer:  babychicks

Breeder :  ironerik

Out of a stakes winning mare this regally bred son of Tapit has been seemingly stuck in allowance company.  His stakes placing last out showed he can step up in class but this is a much much tougher jump.  At five years old he has already had a year as an older horse so you would not expect to see a huge jump in speed figures.  This will be his second start off the layoff so he could put in a big race and seems to like the distance. 

4.  BEP 5yo Horse  21:  7-3-3 $2,817,085       7-1

Scratch:  HONOR CODE x DANZIG x HALO

Residency:  Elite Racing Club

Trainer:  ric804

Breeder :  ric804

A well bred son of Honor Code, this horse has been struggling as he reaches his fifth year and 22nd start.  He is a Grade 2 winner at the distance and also a Grade 1 winner so you can not exactly ignore him.  He is coming off a couple month freshening which may have done hism some good.  Approaching three million in earnings, this talented horse might be a bit tired of dancing every dance as he has and will have to find some old spark to get it done here. 

5.  SPELL GRAMMAR   5yo  Horse 19:  5-4-8 $238,991             22-1

Hemare:  PIONEEROF THE NILE x TAPIT x DYNAFORMER

Residency:  Universal Racing Club

Trainer:  worldclass10

Breeder :  tenpointauction

This five year old horse had a win two back in the URC Breeders Championships in front running style.  It definitely suggests he might be capable in the graded ranks though he was very close to being run down in the final strides.  HIs trainer is taking the hot race prep approach to keep this horse rolling and you can toss his attempt at 16 furlongs.  I would be concerned about his difficulty winning a non-four life but that was so far back that he might well be a better horse now.  Will have to find a bit more and shake loose on the lead if he does not want to get caught late but there is not a lot of speed in the race.  

6.  KEPLER DJURGARN  4yo Colt  14:  5-5-0 $289,883     17-1

Mare:  FASTNET ROCK x SMART STRIKE x A.P. INDY

Residency:  Euro

Trainer:  marre

Breeder :  marre  

Having just turned four this colt is beginning to find his feet against older horses.  Last start he found the winner circle by two lengths in his first graded attempt and with a flashy 119.  With another month to mature he is looking to stretch back out and take on the best horses in the category.  There is no doubt he can handle the distance as he has proven himself at 11 furlongs.  His only start at this exact distance was middle of last year where he ran second but he has greatly improved as he has matured.  With five wins in fourteen starts he poses a true threat to the top horse in here and will be giving everyone a run for their money at 17-1. 

7.  DADS RULE  4yo Colt  40:  5-0-1 $2,367,481   25-1

Mare:  JUSTIFY x SMART STRIKE x WILD AGAIN

Residency:  Empire State Racing

Trainer:  equistable

Breeder :  equistable

Another newly turned four year old, this colt by the great Justify will be looking to get back on track this weekend.  After a disappointing run in the Breeders Bowl Classic he also ran poorly in an allowance a month ago.  He was coming off nearly a three month layoff and making his first start as a four year old so he could show much more come Saturday.  He has yet to show his ability can carry against older horses but is lightly races and has come home a winner half the times he has gone to the track.  There is some definite hope that a second race under his belt and a little more time to mature will find this colt well but only time will tell if he can expand on his stellar three year old campaign.  

8.  HERE TO TAKEOVER  6yo Horse  26:  13-2-4 $822,845        8-1

Mare:  CARPE DIEM x ANY GIVEN SATURDAY x UNBRIDLED’S SONG

Residency:  All-Stars Racing

Trainer:  lincracing

Breeder :  lincracing

Looking for his fifth win in a row, Here To Takeover will try his best to do just that.  He prepped in an open allowance and galloped in by four lengths.  Two back saw him come home a length to the good in a 10 furlong Grade 2.  He likely has yet to show his full tallents this year as is hot on the heels of trying.  The distance looks to be well within his wheel house and he may have found the sweet spot.  He ran in this race two years ago and was a disappointing eighth but looks to be a much improved horse since then.  His numbers are not on par with the top horse in here but he could make some noise if he has the capability when tested.

9.  EXPAND   5yo Horse  17:  5-6-3 $336,006     12-1

Mare:  FLATTER x SEA THE STARS x STORM CAT

Residency:  The Mecca

Trainer:  gowans2011

Breeder :  gowans2011

A colt that combines the great breeding talents of sies from both surfaces has seen this horse excel on the race track.  Though he has not picked up a graded win in his only try he could show the talent still.  His starts at this distance are strong with a listed win, and a listed second on the dirt course. Two back saw him put forth a strong effort on the turf at 9.5 furlongs that allows one to potentially ignore his last out.  He has been a consistent horse his entire career, running mostly in stakes and is ready to expand his possibilities into the graded ranks.  While I am not sure he will have enough here to beat this group, he is definitely a face we could see more of in the graded races.  

10.  THE FAR ROAD   4yo Colt  9:  5-0-0 $202,038     15-1

Scratch:  ARROGATE x SAINT BALLADE x FAPPIANO

Residency:  British and European Racing Club

Trainer:  plano6

Breeder :  plano6

Son of the late stallion Arrogate this young and very lightly raced colt is of the all or nothing type.  HIs first attempt at a graded stake was last out, snapping a five race win streak.  That step up in class and against older horses for the first time might have been a big ask but I would still not count him out.  Regrouping, and trying 10 furlongs might help this horse.  The distance will be a new challenge but he has shown a well of talent that could only get deeper as he trys the classic distance.  If he can find the 118 speed figure that saw him win by open lengths two back he could actually be dangerous.

11.  MCGNARLY TED   5yo Gelding  16:  6-2-1 $404,210       6-1

Mare:  MACABE x BERNARDINI x FORTY NINER

Residency:  Only Stayers

Trainer:  oldmoonfarmsbr3

Breeder :  cashstable

This horses has yet to try the 10 panel distance and that could easily cost him but could also make him a shocker.  His last two starts definitely leave something to be desired.  Well off the board efforts in a G3 and a G1 would generally not inspire someone to run a longer distance against the best horses but there is just enough combination of new that he could reach back and find a strong effort if he likes the distance.  His sire is an unknown horse with little to go off of and he is his sire’s second graded winner.  Three starts back it appeared he was going to make a run at being a very dangerous horse with an open length win in a 9 furlong Grade 2.  His next two starts found him off the board and he is looking to find that spark of brilliance in trying a new distance.    

12.  OIL’S GOLDEN CHILD 4yo Gelding  16:  3-1-6 $469,755                         12-1

Mare: MEDAGLIA D’ORO x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x A.P. INDY

Residency:  East-West Connection

Trainer:  lordpye

Breeder:  arterra

The last three efforts from this horse would suggest he could fit well within this class.  That said there are some major distance questions.  His only start at the 10 furlong distance was back in the middle of last year.  He broke from the gates and never picked up his feet, running mid pack before fading badly to last.  After that effort he ran poorly in a Grade 1 at his likely preferred distance of 9 furlongs.  He was given a couple months off and when he came back he put forth three strong efforts in Grade 3 company.  There is the possibility he was tired and fading before his 10 furlong try and will put forth a much stronger effort here.  He is also a newly turned four year old which could help him in his attempt to stretch out again.  He has the capabilities to continue to be a threat but I am not sure I would trust him at this distance with this class of horses. 

13.  JUST A WAR AWAY   6yo Horse  30:  6-6-5 $547,780      15-1

Mare:  JUST A WAY x WAR CHANT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY

Residency:  Northwest Racing Circuit

Trainer:  selurnivek2yo

Breeder :  selurnivek2yo

This old campaigner will be making his 31st start come Saturday and this.  The last time he saw graded company was February 2020 and has since been running on all surfaces and many distances in allowance and listed company.  He is actually graded placed four times which I am sure has been a source of pride and frustration for his trainer. He has been in the money just over half of his starts and has run consistently on all three surfaces.  His numbers have been less consistent though mostly over 100 when he gets some distance, which he appears to want.  Looks to be in a little heavy here but will definitely give it a hard try.   

14.  SIMULACRO  6yo Horse  9:  4-1-1 $117,870       27-1

Mare:  DANCE IN THE DARK x EMPIRE MAKER x DEPUTY MINISTER

Residency:  Latinos Del Mundo  

Trainer:  lucia11

Breeder :  patluc15

With only nine starts in his career this horse has experienced very intermittent racing.  He broke his maiden at two and then ran three more times at three.  He sat out his four year old year and only ran twice as a five year old, six months apart.  His last out was his first try at ten furlongs and he definitely enjoyed the distance.  He is most certainly beginning to come into his own and is a complete unknown factor.  HIs inconsistent race record could have hurt his chances to truly show his talents but that does not seem to be stopping him now.  He has never run in a listed stakes so the jump to top class horses in this grade one will be a very strong acid test. 

15.  MUSKETEER B  5yo Horse  17:  5-1-3 $269,710       7-1

Hemare:  CANDY RIIDE x DISTORTED HUMOR x REDOUTE’S CHOICE

Residency:  Hoosier Racing 

Trainer:  jakematt

Breeder :  jakematt

Just starting to come around, this horse is looking to take another step forward in competition and in class.  Having struggled for most of 2021 he rattled off two strong wins at the end of the year, taking home a listed win by open lengths and a grade 3 by just under a length.  He will need to take another large stew forward though he appears poised to do so. He might very well be best at the 10 panel distance and has not had a true chance to show it.  If he sits a stalking trip or comes from off the pace he could take home a piece of the prize.

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Good luck to all, and to all a safe trip.