Equinics ’22 – The Red Squirrel

Welcome to the LBAILEY review of the Red Squirrel. Before we get into the juice, let me first say congratulations on getting here and good luck to all the entrants. Representing your residency is an honor unlike any other, and most do not get the opportunity to be on this showcase. There’s lots of talent in this field and I can honestly say it’s anyone race. But I’ll do my best giving you a synopsis of each horses attributes, accolades and a race prediction of my own. Enjoy!

February 26, 2022

$1,250,000 (Post Time 1:50pm EST)

4yr Olds and Up, Fillies

6.5 Furlongs – Fast Dirt

#1 MOMBA FOREVER (18-1) – Trained by HAACK Stables 

(Representing the Latinos Del Mundo Residency)

(War Front x (Cuqui Tarica) A.P. Indy x Storm Cat)

Starting from the rail, this good looking gal, out of the stakes winning mare by A.P. Indy, earned her entry by winning the 2022 Latinos Del Mundo Equinics eliminator by 1.5 lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. Proven successful on both surfaces, it wasn’t until her second group of races on the dirt where she proved to her owner that stardom could be obtained. Although still hasn’t won at the stakes level, she showed that she belonged with a narrow defeat, 2-back in a listed stakes in TX and also back in her 3yr old campaign on the grass. She’s hit triple digit SP in each of her last four races, all dirt runs, and a career best 112SP last out in the residency race-in. Has a big future in front of her if she takes after her dam at all, whose 14 career wins came over a period five racing seasons.

Prediction: Definitely trending in the right direction, but seems a touch below these at first glance. The front-running win was new tactics, and if she can build off that effort, who knows what can happen.

#2 ZEN CAT TALE (8-1) – Trained by MILLERFARM Stables 

(Representing the East-West Connection Residency)

(Zensational x Tale Of The Cat x Deputy Minister)

Been consistently facing stakes and graded company all of 2021. This scratchbred daughter of Zensational made her mark on the class with a G3 score three-back in the See The Way Stakes, getting a hard fought victory that seen her get up at the wire. She had every chance in her two subsequent races following the score, and just couldn’t out-battle the winners at the end but had a combined length of loss of less than three lengths. Seems to be the grinding type that will fight you until the wire. I like the fact that the trainer spaced her races out more in 2021 to keep her fresh, as she ran 14 times in 2020 and only 6 runs in 2021, wow!

Prediction: Takes the step up in class with tactical speed in her pocket. I see her hanging close early, and depending on the fractions, can hang in there to get on the tote board.

#3 LUCKY JOKE (17-1) – Trained by SLEDGE4 Stables 

(Representing the Northwest Racing Circuit Residency)

(Zensational x (Lookin At Greeks) Lookin At Lucky x Corinthian)

The second of the Zensational filles, is this lightly raced, stakes winning 5yr old from a Lookin At Lucky mare. While her dam never showed much at the track,  this one has defied the logic of needing a high performing broodmare to use in the breeding shed. Thought of so highly, she was entered into the 2020 Equinics as a 3yr old by her residency. Found herself too far back that day and didn’t seem interested while fading to 12^th. In 2021, she hit the board in a couple of listed stakes before finally breaking through last out with a front-running win the Belle Trumpet listed stakes. This will be her first test versus graded company in nearly a year and a half. Might still be waiting for her peak effort.

Prediction: Although she’s been able to mix it up with stakes company recently, she’ll need to step her game up to another level to find the exotics here. Can’t endorse for win probabilities.

#4 TOTAL OVERCOMER (8-1) – Trained by DIXIEDOTCO Stables 

(Representing the Midas Residency)

(Tapit x (Heaven’s Gate) Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer)

This 5yr old mare is the final foal from the illustrious HOF inductee Heaven’s Gate, who’s siblings have now produced (5) graded winners, (3) stakes winners, and (5) other stakes placed horses from 16 runners. Sports an eye-popping 10 wins from her 19 career starts. This will be the second Equinics she’s seen, as she showed up in the 2020 edition as a 3yr old. Pressed the pace that day, sitting 2 lengths off the leader, but couldn’t make up any ground in the stretch, finishing 4^th, beaten by 2.5 lengths. A very successful 2021 campaign landed her into the Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint to close out the year. She didn’t have her best that day, never really getting involved, fading to 9^th at the line. Was given some rest afterwards. She came into this year trying to get back on track, and did just that by taking a listed stakes win in January.

Prediction: Has shown the ability to sit off the pace, which could help her chances. The comeback win was greatly needed, but the diminishing SP is cause for concern.

#5 SOLAR SYSTEM CADET (7-1) – Trained by CADET Stables 

(Representing the Empire State Racing Residency)

(Speightstown x (Moon Cadet) Malibu Moon x Unbridled’s Song)

Can you say pedigree? This G1 winning millionaire comes from multiple generations of graded winners. The broodmare here, Moon Cadet, has produced an offspring of five consecutive graded winners, three of which are millionaires. This 5yr old is also your reigning Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint Champion! She stalked the pace that day about two lengths off the leader, then came with a sustained bid that saw her win by the same two lengths in the end. Didn’t stay away from the track very long as she came back about 5 weeks later to try a listed stakes going a mile. Unlike her dam, it doesn’t seem like she wants that distance, and wasn’t able to hang on to the lead she had, fading to third by over eight lengths. Back to a distance more suited here, and facing a few familiar foes that she just beat two-back, expect a good showing!

Prediction: Not sure how she’s not the morning line favorite. The cutback in distance aligns well and has beaten most of the top contenders. Wasn’t able to bring Jockey A.Jolly along for this one though. Contender for top spot!

#6 PARIQUALL (5-1) –Trained by RWHISPER Stables 

(Representing the Hoosier Racing Residency)

(Pariah x Summer Squall x Forty Niner)

Another one of the millionaires in the field! Has really been rolling as of late, earning three consecutive 112+ SP figures with the most recent being a 116, while taking the G1 Everclear Handicap in going away fashion. She also gave a run at the Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint three-back, finishing a clear second behind the winner, and foe she’ll face again here today, Solar System Cadet. A little too much ground was left to make up that day, but a super solid effort was put in without a doubt. Hasn’t had back-to-back victories since the initial race of her ’21 campaign, but she’s on a similar race schedule that has produced some of her greatest efforts. Sire strutted his stuff on the turf, which remarkably, this scratchbred has never looked as of yet. Maybe as good on the grass?

Prediction: Middle of the pack runner has some good kick that can put her in the mix at the wire. Is the most recent effort signs to come? Will need to turn the tables on her rival.

#7 COUNTY KILDARE B (16-1) – Trained by JAKEMATT Stables 

(Representing the Only Stayers Residency)

(Who’s That Cat x (Killer A.P.) Seattle Slew x Secretariat)

A true rags to riches story. This 5yr old mare is sired by the bargain bred Who’s That Cat. At the time of this writing, he can be obtained for 14 credits/bp’s. The sire IRL, was only a winner of 3 races from 24 lifetime starts and earnings of $32,525. But the trainer here matched that pedigree to some juicy bloodlines and came up with a stellar runner. Was first or second in each of this mares first seven runs on the track, one of which was a listed stakes win. Was a hard-charging fourth place in the following race, which was her first attempt versus graded. Fell out of form for a lot of 2021 until the fall, where she put back-to-back solid races again, falling just short of the winners circle. No kick at all in her latest trip around the oval is a cause for concern.

Prediction: Looks to me like a Jekyll and Hyde type, not really knowing which version you’ll get. With a solid pace, I can see this one kicking in gear and getting up for a share. Without the hot fractions, I can see the polar opposite.

#8 CAPI KELA (9-1) – Trained by TISJULIET Stables 

(Representing the All-Star Racing Residency)

(Candy Ride x (Fabulousness) Awesome Again x Mr. Prospector)

This is the kind of horse that gives you a reminder to try everything. Dam was a stakes winning miler that loved the turf. This 5yr old mare has found her groove to be sprinting on the dirt. And she’s very good at it! Sports a whopping 10 come from behind wins from 16 races on the dirt. And she’s a model of consistency, having won eight of her last nine races. The one loss three-back, I believe you can throw out due to her coming back on short rest, possibly trying to gain entry points into the Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint. Got her first graded win last out in the G3 The Leading Lady down in FL going six furlongs. Another that keeps getting better with age and it might be her time to shine on the biggest of stages for her owner.

Prediction: Only knock is the lack of being seen at the G1 level, but I think that’s just a matter of time. Has big time kick, and as long as she got enough rest between races, will be flying late and have a say at the wire.

#9 ENCHUFADA DE MIAMI (69-1) – Trained by EURO Stables

(Representing the European Union Racing Organization Residency) 

(Telling x (Hard Headed Hannah) Flying Spur x Kingmambo)

This lightly raced 6yr old mare is attempting to be the third stakes winning horse from the broodmare Hard Headed Hannah. Has faced nothing but Florida breds for her entire career except for her last, which is a complete toss out because she wanted nothing to do with a mile and a half distance. She’s never been against stakes horses but does sport a 90% in the money percentage on the turf, which is solid even if against locals. Speed is her game, and while I’m not sure she can get out front, she’ll make the others work for it, assuring that there will be no easy lead. In taking a quote from the trainer, they state; “If she wins I’ll eat my grand father’s hat filled with Carolina Reapers while running naked cross the field during the next Wimbledon final with a sign saying “New balls” – if I survive the shock, that is”.

Prediction: I want this one to win, just to be able to watch the next Wimbledon and have the record button hit. But in reality, there is a reason she is the longest shot on the board. Her entry is celebrated by the late runners.

#10 DANIA BLUE MOON (7-1) – Trained by KIMUGLE Stables 

(Representing the Mecca Residency)

(Malibu Moon x Storm Cat x Deputy Minister)

Here’s a 5yr old scratchbred mare by Malibu Moon that lights up on the tote board every time she hits the track. Well, almost every time, in the money in 16 of 18 career races. In the two races outside of that, she was well beyond her comfort zone on stretch-outs. She’s got a lot of speed and knows how to be tactical with it, which a race like this may fall right back into her lap if the leaders get tired. Has several narrow misses to her credit versus graded company, so she’s seen some good ones, but the G1 attempts have eluded her resume until now. This could be a coming out party for her, as I mentioned, she’s been knocking on the door of greatness, just needs that signature win or two.

Prediction: I like what this one is putting down. Tough as nails and always shows up, which can’t be said about most in here. Another true contender for top honors!

#11 BANG TO RIGHTS (19-1) – Trained by PLANOAXIUS Stables 

(Representing the British & European Racing Club Residency)

(No Nay Never x Smart Strike x Blushing Groom)

Started off her career on the lawn with a MSW win going 6 furlongs. Put forth two more attempts on grass before deciding to give the dirt a try. Her numbers jumped up big time on the switch and has been strutting her speed there ever since. Sports five wins now from nine starts on the inner track. Took them gate to wire two-back in the G2 Quote The Raven. Last out, she suffered a heart-breaking loss in the G2 La Zebra, where she led all the way until the wire. This 4yr old out of No Nay Never, is pure speed and has never been looking at anyone’s rear through the first two calls. There are some movers near the rail that’s going to make her work for it, but all sign point that she’s up to the task.

Prediction: Speed kills, and this one has a bunch of it. I like her chances here and the cutback of a half of a furlong might work to her liking. Win contender!

#12 MOTOR CITY NINER (25-1) – Trained by DUNVILLEDOWNS Stables 

(Representing the Elite Racing Club Residency)

(Mo Town x (Valiant) Forty Niner x Danehill)

This Mo Town sired mare has paired nicely to the Graded placed, stakes winning broodmare Valiant, whom already has produced multiple stakes winners including the G1 wining millionaire and EOY honored Rozelle Zapper. Been absolutely money in her races as she’s hit the board in 16 of her 18 races and won on 9 of the occasions. Likes to be on or just off the pace, and I would suggest doing the latter with Bang To Rights just inside of her. She’s been running 5-5.5 furlongs in most of her races, but at the time of the race, threw up a career best effort over this distance. Valiant effort last out in the Lord Sammie Dirt Sprint while facing stakes company, but fell just short in the final strides.

Prediction: Hope she decides to sit just behind the speed here as I feel she’ll get burned up quickly if not. The right scenario could have her at her best effort to date although it’s an enormous class hike.

#13 THE THIRD BRIDE (7-1) – Trained by WAREMBLEM5 Stables 

(Representing the Universal Racing Club Residency)

(Tapit x (Mother of Dragons) Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector)

The 2020 CHAMP is back to defend her crown. This may be unheard of in Equinics history, I’ll have to check on that. And oh yeah, she’s the daughter of the HOF Mother Of Dragons. She’s an ageless wonder that’s been battling top notch foes for over 3 seasons. Been seen in the Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint 3 times… wow! In her latest BB attempt, she sat off the hip of the pace-setter OG Uncle Skipper, while in great position, she just didn’t have quite enough left in the tank to take the lead at any point and watched a few of her rivals here pass her near the line. She always shows up strong but does carry the most races ran of the group. This might be her last hoorah, as not too many of this kind get ran too late into their career. Should be a wonderful broodmare for years to come!

Prediction: More speed to add to the mix. Recent runs haven’t been as stellar but comes in fresh. Will certainly push the pace but stamina is in question these days. If the time away helped, she’s dangerous.

#14 LIAM’S LITTLE LADY (6-1) – Trained by LIAM Stables 

(Representing the GR Simsters Residency) 

(Redoute’s Choice x Storm Bird x Fappiano)

It really clicked for this daughter of Redoute’s Choice when making the move from turf to dirt, never having under a triple digit SP since. Been facing nothing but top class competition each of the last two years. Lightly raced with nearly two-month gaps between races, only having 19 career starts as a 6yr old. Must be the key to keeping your horse at top level in the later years. She’s the two-time winner of the G1 The Nutcracker held in August in NY. Also represented in the Breeders Bowl F&M Sprint in consecutive years. Although, neither of those went as expected, falling well short in both. That being said, she won the G1 Everclear in January of ’21 following her initial BB effort. Has shown versatility in running styles, which will help considerably.

Prediction: Looks eerily similar to last years setup, following the Breeders Bowl. Will be a tough one to leave outside your exotics, and has a solid chance at top prize!

#15 RUFF STUFF JO (60-1) – Trained by WORLDCLASS Stables

(Representing the Canadian Thoroughbred Residency) 

(Ruffy Joe x (Tapit To Cairo) Cairo Prince x Tapit)

This Canadian invader has been tumbling with both sexes up north in her home country on both surfaces with substantial success. Got really close to winning an open listed stakes last year at this time over in Oregon. Took the lead from the gate that day, and had it for most of the way until being passed in the final 1/16, finishing third. Was probably hoping for some precipitation in the air as her best efforts, two and three races ago, have come over good footing. One thing she’ll enjoy is the extra footing, top effort was at a mile distance. This will be her first time facing foes of this caliber, so her and jockey S.Kratch must try and not get star stuck and just run her race.

Prediction: Jo will be hard pressed to stay in contention with this group. Will need a career best effort and hope for soft fractions to obtain a piece, which isn’t likely to happen with this group.

Totally Unbiased SELECTIONS:

1^ST – #8 CAPI KELA – Think it’s her time to shine!

2^ND – #6 PARIQUALL – Reverses outcome vs Solar Cadet but gets nipped at wire

3^RD – #5 SOLAR SYSTEM CADET – Another strong effort, but falls just short

4^TH – #11 BANG TO RIGHTS – Gets to the front and takes them a long way

Thanks for reading and good luck to all contestants!