Big Race Preview 3546

Three huge Derby Lock races will help settle the final starting spots in the Bluegrass Derby. We have more grade one action for three year old fillies as well. Mixed in is a fantastic long distance sprint with an excellent field that is sure to produce a huge speed figure. Finally fillies and mares run at a mile and a half on dirt with a very interesting collection of long distance older fillies and mares.

Race: 3546.0116 California Derby — Derby Lock Prep – Grade I – $750,000
Track: California
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

The two favorites have outside posts which could make for an interesting result. Shetan and Urban Storm Cat are both sired by Storm Cat and share morning line favoritism. Shetan is currently ranked twenty fifth so will need to hit the board here to gain stakes points to make the Bluegrass Derby field. Urban Storm Cat is currently ranked fifteenth but will also likely need to pick up a few stakes points to maintain his position.

Shetan just missed last time out in the grade two Bonnie Situation. His last two races have come at distances a sixteenth of a mile further than this race. The slight cut back in distance could help some but we know the distance is not an issue for him. He has posted back to back 104 speed figures and with a little improvement can easily win this race. He is a stalker type to mid pack type runner and this races seems to set up well for him. There appears to be a lot of speed in here from long shots so Shetan should have a good trip.

Urban Storm Cat ran second in a couple of graded stakes at the end of last year as a two year old. He then took a couple of months off and made his three year old debut on this track a month ago in a grade three race. He closed from well off the pace to win that race which was run at this distance with a 104 speed figure. This will be his second race off the lay off and with his running style he should not be affected by the post position. He will be closing late and should improve in his second start off the layoff.

From the same stable that brought us Passing Stone last year comes Folsom Blues this year. Folsom Blues is a very lightly raced three year old that has never run over a route of ground. He made his debut in December of last year and progressed from maiden winner to placing in a grade one last time out in just four starts. He is by Fusaichi Pegasus a Derby winner out of a Nureyev mare. He has the stamina to get the distance the only thing going against him could be his lack of experience.

Race: 3546.0715 Chicago Derby — Derby Lock Prep – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Illinois
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

It appears the only way any of these runners are making the Bluegrass field is to win this race. Wireless Eavesdrop is a clear favorite on the morning line in this race. This Smarty Jones colt has won five of his six career starts. His only loss came last time out in the grade two Felipe Alou Cap where he ran third. Wireless Eavesdrop is a three time listed stakes winner. He has taken a round about path to the Bluegrass with his last start being his first graded stakes start. His running will put him mid pack and well off the early pace he will have to close from well back to win this something he has never done before.

Shoot for the Gold is the second choice on the morning line. He does not have any tries in graded stakes to this point. He does not even have a stakes win to his credit but he is a runner that is improving at the right time of year. Last time out he ran in a listed stakes at a mile and three sixteenths. He closed from more than thirteen lengths off the pace to miss by a quarter length on the wire earning a 104 speed figure. His deep closing style often puts him behind the eight ball but his closing kick has been improving. He too will be moving late and if he can move forward he has a real chance.

Nekrophaneia is one of only a couple of graded stakes winners in the field. Last time out he won the grade two Felipe Alou Cap in front running fashion. He has gone out and set the pace in every one of his career races. Only one time in his seven career races did he not hold on to the lead to the wire. His six wins and speed are things the top two fear. He is not a runner that gives up a lead but if he gets pressed it could be a different story. This will be the furthest distance he has tried thus far and that makes him a bit vulnerable.

Rock Hard Korn is a late bloomer that flashed some ability last time out. Last time out he sat fourth off the pace and made a solid run into the stretch finishing second. He earned a 105 speed figure in a race a little further than this one. There are a couple of speed horses in here and a couple of deep closers. Rock Hard Korn should be off the pace and get first run if the pace horses cannot keep up.  

Race: 3546.0416 Wooden Indian — Derby Lock Prep – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

This race is a wide open affair with most of these horses needing the win to get into the Bluegrass Derby. Cash Due is the morning line favorite. He is one of the most experienced runners in the field with thirteen career races. He is a very vulnerable favorite and as easily as he could improve he could regress and finish off the board. His last two efforts have produced 101 speed figures. He ran pretty evenly last time out in the All Saints Derby finishing fifth. He is a stalker and could make a run in the stretch if all things fall into place for him.

Foxy Mesa is coming off a nice run in the grade two Felipe Alou Cap. He was stalking last time out and made a run in the stretch. It was the first time he stalked and he looked good finishing second with a 103 speed figure. If he can stay away from setting the pace he will be very dangerous. There might be a distance question for him to answer as well giving the race more intrigue.

Alydar Again will race in the Bluegrass Derby. He was a grade one winner at two taking the grade one Arizona Diamond. Since then he has won two of three races with his only blemish coming in the grade one Vermont is 4 Lovers race. Last time out he really took a big step forward closing from well off the pace to win by four lengths going away. He earned a 102 speed figure. He is really just looking for a solid effort here that will propel him to a great effort in four weeks.

Gideon’s Trumpet is coming into this race off back to back wins. He only has the two starts as a three year old and has looked pretty good. Last time out he took the grade three Gary Asher Memorial earning a 103 speed figure. He was tenth early on but never more than four and a half lengths from the pace. The pace here will be very different but this son of Awesome Again could have what it takes to win this race.

Race: 3546.0414 The Billy and Jimmy Stakes – Grade I – $350,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Seven furlongs on the Dirt

The long distance sprinters take to the New York track led by Ketch. Ketch was absolutely phenomenal two starts back in the Vermont is 4 Lovers long sprint. That race was a grade three and Ketch ran a huge race. He earned a 120 speed figure while winning by three quarters of a length. That is one of the fastest speed figures in a couple of years in the sim. He seems to do much better in the longer sprints and seems well placed again to make a big run. He is a mid pack type closer, look for him late.

K’s State of Mind has been a threat in these type races for a couple of years. His recent form has been very good running mostly speed figures in the 110+ range. He has not popped the big 115+ race but his consistency has been impressive. In his last three he has been first or second. He has a stalking style that usually puts him mid pack in the early part of races. It is hard to see him not running well here.

Chronic Addiction has won three races in a row. Two races back in the grade three Pablo Cruz Chronic Addiction earned a 117 speed figure while beating the favorite Ketch. He is a long sprint distance specialist almost running exclusively at seven furlong distances. He is a stalker usually in the top five runners with in four lengths of the lead in most of his races. He is in good form and has a recent huge speed figure with a desirable running style.

Hollow Halo is fresh off a win in the grade three Toboggan Handicap where he earned a 114 speed figure. He is no stranger to those type speed figures as he ran a 115 last September as a three year old. He is starting to mature and could get even better now at age four. He is a stalker type like many of the other favorites here and should be right in the thick of things in the stretch.   

Race: 3546.0115 The City Of Angels – Grade I – $500,000
Track: California
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

This is a player bought grade one race. The favorite here is Equivocations. Last time out Equivocations ran a very nice race winning the Louisiana Oaks with a solid 102 speed figure. In that race she stalked from mid pack and made a good move in the stretch pulling away for a solid two length win. She looks the best on paper here and looks to be very tough to beat.

Silent Screem won a listed stakes last time out and now makes the jump to the grade one level. She has five career races and has finished first or second in each start. She had a solid speed figure last time out with a 100. She will need to improve off that race though if she is to keep up with the favorite. She pressed the pace last time out she could be a bit off the pace in this one.

Azza Muss for some odd reason opted to take on the boys in the All Saints Derby last time out. She ran a solid sixth but if she fails to hit the top three here with all the player bought grade one races adding to the amount of stakes points a horse will need to qualify for the Oaks she could be on the sidelines come Oaks day. She has been stalking but last time out she was near the pace. If she can get back on track against the ladies she should do well in this spot.

Race: 3546.0112 The HELLO MOMMA Special – Grade I – $500,000
Track: California
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: Seven furlongs on the Dirt

This is a player bought race headed by Appeal This. Appeal this won a grade one race as a two year old and made a run in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly Dirt. She was fourth at the Breeder’s Bowl and has since found her success sprinting. She set the pace last time out getting a big lead only to get run down late having to settle for second. She has solid speed figures but needs to step it up to win here.

Saracen is a runner that could qualify for the Oaks. As a two year old she won a grade two and finished second in another grade two in route races. She found a new level however when she cut back from routes to a long sprint last time out. She went gate to wire in a seven and a half furlong race earning a 99 speed figure. She will be part of the pace that looks fast here.

Champion flower was very impressive last time out running against the boys. She was second in the grade two Hutchingson earning a 100 speed figure. She has been in the money in all of her starts but one a graded try at a mile. She was mid pack last time out with the boys but could be more forwardly placed here. Her stalking style should put her in a position to do well here.

Race: 3546.7815 The RAGING RIVER Special – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Upper New York
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Dirt

A field of nine long distance fillies take to the track in this player bought race. War in Heaven is not the favorite but is clearly the one to beat. She won the World Cup race at this distance last year and won a listed stakes with a 108 speed figure in January. Last time out though she finished a well beaten tenth at the Vermont is 4 Lovers day. She never runs back to back poor efforts so expect her to bounce back here.

The Trident is an interesting runner. She has the far out side post which might be ideal for her tactical speed. On a Breeder’s Bowl under card race she went off running a 115 speed figure at this distance. She ran a 107 in December in another long distance effort so she is no stranger to fast speed figures at this distance. She comes off a listed stakes wins at a slightly longer distance, looking very tough in this spot.

K’s Hasty N Nasty is the morning line favorite. She has run some very nice speed figures at this distance or close to this distance. What she does not have is graded stakes experience. She has won her last two and three of her last four races. She comes off a nice listed stakes win where she earned a 104 speed figure. She is likely to be mid pack or towards the front in her first graded try.