Underdog to Lock Up Spot in Derby in California?
California Derby — Derby Lock Prep
Grade I
A mile and one eighth on the Fast Dirt Course
$750,000
All Horses, 3 years old
Stakes record – 2003 – NORTHERN SLEW, 1:47 3/5, SPF 110.564
We are here in laid back California but you can bet that the trainers and owners of these three year olds aren’t here for the vacation. The nerves are on edge and time is growing short to draw into the Bluegrass Derby about a month from now. There are only two horses in this race that look like they are a sure thing to qualify for the big race so there are lots of hopes and dreams riding on the backs of these youngsters. We have one filly trying here in KORNSNAKE and she would love to show the boys a thing or two. It looks like a fairly close race and it may not be such a dream to see one of the long shots to sneak up and wrestle a spot in the Derby away from one of the horses that would normally qualify. Last year a spot was locked up here by GAHDAMJO in the mud who went on to a sixth place finish in the Derby. You have to go back to 2005 where FLY FOR BUDA won and finished third in the Derby but went on to win the Middle Jewel for a horse that won here and went on to Triple Crown Glory. First you have to get in and that is what is hoped for here. It should be a great race so let’s take a look:
1 – PERFECT HAACK(KY) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK 13/1 Otto 17.3% T.Bates 146 – 9 – 12 – 18 – 6% 98.23 $ 160,120 147
( QUIET AMERICAN x SEATTLE SLEW x STORM CAT out of CRYOSTAT) This big brown colt out of the Otto Haack Venezuelan Stables has been brought along slowly by trainer Otto with very nice results. He has won six of seven with a second and won his first Stakes outing in his last race. He has constantly improved and has the folks at the Hispano Parlante Rez excited about his chances here. His top SPF was a 98 in that last race and will need to take another jump to compete here but it looks as if he could be ready to make that jump. He has Bates in the saddle who has had limited success this year but with most of the favorites on the far outside, this colt could surprise.
| 2 – RAHY’S SONG(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | Bandinni | 11.3% | O.Brim | 95 – 11 – 9 – 7 – 12% | 95.73 | $ 68,314 | 244 |
( UNBRIDLED’S SONG x RAHY x MACHIAVELLIAN) A pretty roan colt that likes the lead drew a nice post for his style. He has never run at the level that most of the competition in this race has though and trainer Bandinni who has had success in the past will really need to let jockey Brim give him his head and build up a lead and hope he can hold off all of the late closers. Flying the colors of the Right At Home stables who runs under the watchful eyes of the Northwest Racing Circuit Rez, it appears that this colt will need to run the race of his life to get in the mix here.
| 3 – TOO MUCH GLACKEN(FL) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | TurfKing32 | 19.0% | J.Pimental | 49 – 8 – 3 – 7 – 16% | 98.43 | $219,410 | 128 |
(TOO MUCH BLING x SMOKE GLACKEN x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR) This light grey colt has really shown improvement as a three year old for trainer and owner TurfKing32. He ran his first Graded race last time out and finished on the board in third with a 98 SPF. If he can continue to improve he has a chance to make some noise among the three year olds. He is in the capable and sometimes magical hand on the reins of Pimental who has been really solid this year. That won’t hurt his chances and if the faves get into a pushing contest early in the race perhaps he could steal one here.
| 4 – KORNSNAKE(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Korn | 14.6% | L.Brock | 25 – 4 – 2 – 3 – 16% | 98.71 | $ 90,298 | 260 |
( SADLER’S WELLS x MILL REEF x SECRETARIAT) Our only filly here amongst the boys, and though she has won three of five it will also be her first Stakes race. Trainer Korn and the Qwikvett Stables are members of the Northwest Racing Circuit and would love to see her make a big jump here which isn’t out of the question with her nice SPFs. She has Brock in the irons and he is more than capable of pulling off the upset. It’s always nice to see a young lady in the Derby and this could be the one.
| 5 – BRAVE BIRDIE(ENG) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | JSimpson | 13.0% | C.Euler | 11 – 1 – 0 – 0 – 9% | 102.97 | $ 377,340 | 24 |
( GREEN DESERT x CAPE TOWN x STORM CAT out of CAPTAIN’S CATS) Just on the outside of the qualifying stats for the big race, this nicely bred colt out of CAPTAIN’S CATS needs a good race here for trainer JSimpson and the MvForever Stables. His stables are unattached and you can bet that if he gets into the Derby that several residencies would be happy to see him flying their colors. They have jockey Euler who has only had nine mounts this year and one win which is a bit of a curious choice. This is one of the few horses in this race that has had a triple digit SPF and a Graded win both in his last outing. I think that he will fare well enough here to cement a place in the big race and definitely has a chance of “LOCKING” up a spot.
| 6 – DUBAI DESTINY(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/1 | LastFarm | 14.7% | L.Snyder | 27 – 3 – 4 – 4 – 11% | 89.23 | $51,746 | 437 |
( GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER x BUCKPASSER) This little GONE WEST colt comes in on a two race win streak but hasn’t ventured into a Stakes race yet. Trainer LastFarm is taking a shot here to gain a spot in the big race with the momentum that he has shown lately. They are under the auspices of the Snyder Stables and run with the folks at the Pastures of Green Residency. He hasn’t hit a 90 SPF yet and needs a big boost here to compete but has jockey Snyder in the leather who is having a very nice year. Perhaps they could pull of the big upset here.
| 7 – BADRINATH(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Peeps8 | 20.6% | W.Rogers | 19 – 3 – 2 – 1 – 16% | 95.91 | $72,300 | 627 |
( GHOSTZAPPER x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) Trainer Peeps8 has to wonder when this GHOSTZAPPER colt will get away from the awe that he seems to have in Stakes races and show his stuff. He is undefeated in Allowance races but has never hit the board in a Stakes outing which has hit a dry spell of five races currently. Wearing the black, red and gold colors of the Cobra Kai Racing Stables will be jockey Rogers who has been very solid this year. He will have his hands full making this colt believe in himself but has certainly done it before.
| 8 – FOREST AMBUSH(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | LionArt | 12.8% | F.Porter | 36 – 4 – 6 – 5 – 11% | 95.26 | $ 71,790 | 201 |
( FOREST WILDCAT x KINGMAMBO x CRUSADER SWORD out of DANCING BLADE) This colt has had a hard time matching the results of his mom DANCING BLADE who was a wonderful runner with $2.5 mil in earnings and 13 Stakes and 6 Graded wins. A bit of her talent had rubbed off but her son has been a bit up and down so far in his career. Trainer LionArt and the Tequila Mockingbird Stables have to be pulling their hair out watching this colt squander his talent with flashes of brilliance. They have Porter in the leather and he is solid if unspectacular but hopefully can move this colt out of the doldrums and into his full potential in this race.
| 9 – FOLSOM BLUES(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | JimCougar | 15.5% | C.Mecklenburg | 74 – 8 – 13 – 5 – 11% | 105.01 | $ 189,320 | 136 |
( FUSAICHI PEGASUS x NUREYEV x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) Lenny’s Evil Empire Stables and trainer JimCougar like to bring them along slowly and this colt is no exception. This will only be his fifth race, the least of any horse in this race. He already has a Stakes win and narrowly missed winning his first Graded race last time out with a sizzling 105 SPF in that short career though. This horse probably has the best chance of taking advantage of the Lock aspect of this race as he wouldn’t qualify but certainly has the talent to compete with the top three year olds. Jockey Mecklenburg is solid in the saddle and will give this late closing colt his head in the stretch to show what he can do.
| 10 – ANDROMEDA’S BAND(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | 33Across | 11.1% | V.Feller | 13 – 0 – 0 – 3 – 0% | 98.28 | $ 115,502 | 164 |
( ANDROMEDA’S HERO x DIXIELAND BAND x CARSON CITY out of DIXIELAND CITY) With sixteen races under his saddle, this colt has plenty of experience for trainer 33Across and the Fortune 500 Stables and he has generally shown nice improvement but he hasn’t been able to fire in a Stakes outing. Both of his races were allowance level and he needs to bump it up to compete here. Another worry is the assignment of jockey Feller who is looking to ride his first winner of the year. He has the speed but needs to step it up a bit in this race to get that magic qualifier.
| 11 – SARDINI(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Punter41 | 14.7% | F.Gossett | 228 – 62 – 41 – 29 – 27% | 101.98 | $ 394,880 | 8 |
( BERNARDINI x SADLER’S WELLS x DANZIG) One of the colts that has a spot already locked up in the Derby with a number 8 ranking, this three time Stakes winning colt ran his best race late last year when he won the GI Movieland Futurity although he had a nice 101 SPF in the mud last time out winning an regular Stakes outing. Trainer Punter41 and the Phantom Pharms Stables know how to saddle up winners and this will be one of several entries representing the Northwest Racing Circuit Rez. They have the best jockey at the track up in Gossett and would love to go into the Derby with a strong showing here. I just hope that the mud wrestling race last time out didn’t take too much out of him.
| 12 – SHETAN(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | CDragon | 15.4% | A.Lewis | 104 – 22 – 12 – 8 – 21% | 104.54 | $ 202,480 | 25 |
( STORM CAT x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SEATTLE SLEW out of BUCEPHALUS) With two consecutive 104 SPFs, this colt definitely has the speed needed to win this race. Trainer CDragon and the TwoOfUs Stables watched him just miss winning his first Graded Race last time out with a close second. He has really turned it on in his past three races and needs a good race here to make sure he qualifies for the Derby if he doesn’t lock it here. They have Lewis holding the reins and he is one of the tracks best so he will certainly know how to use this colts deep closing style. A good choice to finish in the mix at the end.
| 13 – THE ROCK QUARRY(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/1 | WFStables | 12.0% | R.Simcox | 152 – 11 – 15 – 20 – 7% | 94.38 | $140,240 | 64 |
(ROCK HARD TEN x CORONADO’S QUEST x SAINT BALLADO out of THE CHAMP IS HERE) After winning a Grade III race last August in his three year old campaign, this colt seemed to fall off the map for trainer WFStables and the WillYam13 Stables until the last couple when he seemed to get back on track with a second and a win in a couple of Allowance races. His speeds have improved and he seems to be finding himself. The GR Simsters Rez would love to see him get it together in a hurry so that they could cheer him on in the Derby. Simcox is in the irons and has been having a very disappointing season for him. He needs to find himself too, and perhaps they could do it together in this race.
| 14 – URBAN STORM CAT(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | Triscay | 16.0% | M.Staples | 216 – 26 – 43 – 31 – 12% | 104.34 | $ 283,850 | 15 |
(STORM CAT x FORTY NINER x NIJINSKY II) With only six races and three wins and three seconds this colt looks like he is ready to move up the charts and make some noise in this three year old season. He has already created a low roar with three consecutive Gradeds with one win and two near wins. Trainer Triscay and the OzSteve Stables know that this colt probably already has a spot in the Derby but needs a solid race to make sure. The Ireland Rez is known for their love of turf runners but will certainly be cheering on this colt on the clay this week and on the first Saturday in May. They have solid jockey Staples in the leather and only have to worry about all of the top competition being out here in the outside posts in this race. He should lock up his spot in the big race one way or another here.
Morning Line = 12-14-9-11-5-10
Paz Picks = 9-14-12-11
I love these Lock races because it gives a chance to make a Cinderella Story for the Derby. I think we have a chance of that here. I like SARDINI to finish fourth even though he is already in the Derby and top ranked in this race. I’m afraid it may be tough to bounce back from that mud race last time out. I have SHETAN third but wrestled with choosing him for the win. He has shown tremendous consistency and could easily pick up the win here. My final two may spar and jab with each other throughout the race. They are both lightly raced and deep closers and should be neck and neck down the stretch. I have URBAN STORM CAT at second on my card and FOLSOM BLUES to win the race and lock up a spot in the Derby that he probably otherwise wouldn’t have earned. It should be a blast and I can hardly wait.
Good luck to all runners!
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