3YO FILLIES SPRINT 7 FURLONGS IN FIRST OF 3 GRADE I’S IN CALIFRONIA THIS WEEKEND
The sims top year olds are on display at California this week and while many eyes will be watching the California Derby with it’s precious guaranteed entry into the Blugrass Derby next month there are a pair of Grade I’s on the card featuring the female sophomores. The first of them goes off as the 12th race on the Saturday card in the 7 furlong Hello Momma Special. This dirt Grade I sprint has attracted 14 starters and offers up a $500,000 purse.
Let’s take a look at today’s field:
1)MURDER AVENUE(JPN)—14/1—pincay sends this filly out of SILVER CHARM with a record of 13-7-1-1 and lifetime earnings of $156,884. She is out of of the mare MASS MURDERER MA who was 10/55 at the track and who has 4 foals on record of which are winners including 2 stakes winners. This 37th divisional ranked filly races for the Qwikvett stables based over at the NWRC. This filly was a consistant allowance runner as a 2 year old last year winning 4 races but has been on a roll this year with 3 straight overnite stake wins and that performance earns her a start in this Grade I event today, the first Graded start in her career. She has improved by one speed rating in each of her last starts, posting a lifetime best 91 mark last time out over 7 furlongs in Oregon. She is expected to stalk the frontrunners from just off the pace and then maker her bid in the far turn and hopefully hold off the field in the stretch drive. It will be interesting to see how she performs with the class rise and the full field entered here today as most of her races have come in short field races. The rider for today’s race will be Turner (12.5%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—92.
2)IVANOVIC(KY)—14/1—veeman6 sends this filly out of PULPIT with a record of 5-4-0-0 and lifetime earnings of $125,160. This 104th divisional ranked filly races for the unafilliated Volcano Lodge stables. While this filly may be spotting some in here some experience this lightly raced filly has made the most of her starts so far to date. With the exception of a bad day in NB last fall she has been perfect and posted up a nice 99 speed rating while prepping for this race right here in a CA overnite sprint stakes against a short 4 horse field. She has shown herself to be a closer who can sit either midpack or at the back and has proven that she is strong in the stretch drive where the real running starts. The pace is expected to be an honest one today with several front runners and that can help her if she times her move right. Could be the sleeper in here that can return a nice price on some of the exotic wagers offered up in this race today. The rider for today’s race will be Brim (11.2%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—102.
3)CHAMPION FLOWER(KY)—8/1—meguire2nd sends this filly out of FLOWER ALLEY with a record of 10-3-5-1 and lifetime earnings of $224,708. She is out of the mare CHAMPION BUBBA who was 2/53 at the track and who has 3 foals on record, all winners including this stakes winner. This 13th divisional ranked filly races for the unafilliated Meguire stables. The first thing that comes to mind when you look at this filly is—-LOL. But seriously take out the only time she has routed and she has yet to miss the board in her career. Her rallies have come up short in both of her 2008 starts, both 7 furlongs stake races where she has had to settle for 2nd place finishes and that may warrant another route try sometime in the future. Her 100 speed rating posted in a Grade II FL stake last time out puts her up there with any in this field and if she can time her move right and perhaps get moving a little sooner it would not be a surprise to see her win this race today. The rider for today’s race will be Simcox (7.1%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—103.
4)STREET BUDA(KY)—14/1—lacostra sends this filly out of STREET CRY(IRE) with a record of 9-2-4-0 and lifetime earnings of $136,605. She is out of the he-mare STORMING SAL who was 8/44 at the track. This 122nd divisional ranked filly races for the Del/Penn National division of the Topicount stables. When you look at this filly’s 2 year old form she really did not stand out that much on paper and probably posted her numbers more from easy entries than anything else. Her debut in 2008 was not very good when she regressed to a 69 speed rating and that resulted in her dropping down from stakes to a restricted allowance where all of a sudden she woke up and posted a 99 speed rating last time out while continuing to run a sort of style reversal in closing from far back rather than pressing the early pace. That style has produced the best pair of runs in her career so far to date. Can she continue to improve and duplicate that feat in a Grade I race here today, that remains to be seen as the field is alot tougher than a NW4X allowance group from NJ. The rider for today’s race will be Brock (20%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
5)DEATH’S DOOR(KY)—6/1—lopo sends this filly out of CONSOLIDATOR with a record of 9-3-4-2 and lifetime earnings of $145,462. She is out of the mare PRO MUMMY who was 0/1 at the track and who has 4 foals on record of which 3 are winners including 1 Graded stakes winner and another stakes winner. This 46th divisional ranked filly races for Lenny’s Evil Empire stables based over at the GR Simsters. This filly has yet to miss the board in her career and looked right at home in her Graded stake debut 3 weeks ago in NY while rallying from far back to finish 2nd in The Grade II Cadoka stakes. Barring the sometimes inevitable bounce she should be one of the ones to beat here today although her style may suggest she will get better when and if she stretches out to route racing. Then again her sire has produced better sprinters than routers in his stallion career so far to date in the sim. Her 100 speed rating posted last time out puts her right there with the leaders and as thus she has been grouped as one of the early favorites in the morning line. The rider for today’s race will be Lewis (20.7%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—102.
6)LOOK QUICK(KY)—23/1—danno sends this filly out of PROUD CITIZEN with a record of 10-3-3-2 and lifetime earnings of $82,880. She is out of the mare COY PROSPECTOR who was 3/9 at the track and who has 6 foals on record of which 5 are winners including this stakes winning filly. This 216th divisional ranked filly races out of the danno3 stables based over at RASH. This filly was a 2 time allowance winner last year and showed a bit of improvement in her last race of 2007 to warrant a stake start in her 3 year old debut. She responded to the challenge by winning that race in TZ last time out posting a 91 speed rating over the 7 furlong race. She usually presses the early pace but it remains to be seen how close she will be to the leaders with the rise in class for today’s contest. She would need to continue to dramatically improve to be considered a factor for a top 3 finish in today’s race. The rider for today’s race will be Bonus (8.8%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—90.
7)CAREER HIGH(KORE)—12/1—rubiano00 sends this filly out of YANKEE VICTOR with a record of 10-4-3-0 and lifetime earnings of $98,950. She is out of the mare ROAD FLARE who was 0/14 at the track and who has 2 foals on record, both winners. This 287th divisional ranked filly races for the At The Wire Thoroughbreds stables based over at RASH. This filly has only missed picking up a cheque once in her career and that came in her only other stake and Graded stake appearance in the 8.5 furlong Grade III Santa Jezebel Stakes right here in California in January. While she posted her top speed rating of 93 last time out in a *500 allowance outing she has yet to prove that she can handle stakes company and is considered a long shot to hit the board in this race today. Still, this closer does not sit as far back as some of the other contenders who have had a knack for coming up short in rallies and this filly will have to utilize that advantage to maximum for a piece of today’s purse. The rider for today’s race will be Mills (7.1%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—90.
8)SARACEN(KY)—6/1—dixiedotco sends this filly out of STORM CAT with a record of 9-3-3-1 and lifetime earnings of $325,250. This 36th divisional ranked filly is based out of Vermont at The Pastures of Green. This filly actually broke her maiden in a stake race to start her career off last year and also went on to win The Grade II Mistaken Soda Identity Stakes in AZ over 8.5 furlongs on a good track. She could not carry that success over to her 2007 finale on DPCD and with her success on the off track was tried out on the turf to debut this year but has been switched back to the dirt since that one race experiment. She wired a field last time out in a 7.5 furlong stake in ME while posting her top speed rating of 99 and this speedy filly is expected to be one of those vying for the right to cut the early fractions in this race today. She has shown in the past if she can get loose on the lead and have things her own way she can be very tought to catch in the stretch albeit this will be a much tougher test for her than any of her last 3 starts so far this year. The rider for today’s race will be Jones (0%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—100.
9)CK GHOST PROSPECT(KY)—7/1—ckstables sends this filly out of GHOSTZAPPER with a record of 11-6-1-1 and lifetime earnings of $596,550. This 2nd divisional ranked filly races for TeamCK that is based over in the backstretch at Minnesota Downs. Up until last years BB juvenile filly this girl was one of the top performers of her class with a Grade I 2nd place finish in BC and then winning The innaugural World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint. She stretched out in distance for the BB start and while she was rallying late she did come up short and repeated that in a pair of stake races to finish off the 2007 season albeit she was 3rd in the season ending Minnesota Juvenile Filly Stakes. That prompted a turf try to start of the 2008 season and after a big downturn in speed she came back last time out in a 7.5 furlong overnite stake in LA where she rallied from far back to win the race posting a lifetime best 101 speed rating. Perhaps the answer was there all along and this girls calling may be in the long sprints and not in routing. She should be charging hard late down the stretch and with a pair of filly’s expected to be challenging for the lead this one should have some decent fractions to chase down at the wire. The rider for today’s race will be Staples (12.6%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—103.
10)DOWNTOWN FARGO(KY)—12/1—larsonisti sends this filly out of HAP with a record of 8-2-2-1 and lifetime earnings of $88,410. This 158th divisional ranked filly races for the Larsonee stables based over at RASH. This filly showed some real potentinal as a 2 year old last year by posting some nice 80+ speed ratings in picking up some minor cheques in several stake starts including a 3rd place finish in a ND Grade III mile stake. She has not been able to improve substancially on those marks so far this year and although she did become a stakes winner last time out up Interstate 5 in N California the 88 rating she posted in that race would leave her well back in this field today. I am not sure what to expect from a running style for her in this race although i expect that she will try to keep up and stalk the frontrunners from midpack and hopefully she can improve with the rise in class today to be able to challenge the leaders in the stretch drive. The rider for today’s race will be Dorsey (6.5%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—86.
11)APPEAL THIS(KY)—5/1—upperhand2 sends this filly out of SUCCESSFULL APPEAL with a record of 9-4-3-0 and lifetime earnings of $576,390. She is out of the mare WESTERN GIRL who was 1/4 at the track and who has 5 foals on record of which 3 are winners including this Graded stake winning filly. This 7th divisional ranked filly races for Given’s Fire and Blood stables based over at the GR Simsters. This speedy filly was a Grade I winner last year when she won The Grade I Getaway Stakes in NY and ran a good race in the BB Juvenile Filly race where she had the lead at the top of the stretch but could not hold off the closers to settle for a 4th place finish probably showing that the 8.5 furlong distance was a tad to long for her best performance. At the DPCD she may have proved that by ending up well back in an 8 furlong contest but she has rebounded and in fact won her last start right here in CA by prepping for this race with a 98 speed rating posted in a 6 furlong overnite stake race. This race may turn out to be a speed vs closer contest and it will be interesting to see what will occur should this filly have to fight for the lead with the STORM CAT filly entered in this race as well. If a battle develops early will that leave the morning line favorite vulnerable to one of the closers late in the stretch today. One thing for sure it can’t hurt to have one of the top riders in the sim aboard for this Grade I today. The rider for today’s race will be Gossett (27%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—100
12)WETHIKA(KY)—18/1—viperfour sends this filly out of OLD DEUTERONOMY with a record of 8-3-0-1 and lifetime earnings of $75,240. She is out of the mare JUST IN JEST who was 1/28 at the track and who has 3 foals on record, all winners including this stakes winning filly. This 236th divisional ranked filly races for the Mano stables based in Vermont at The Pastures of Green. This 2 time winner as a 2 year old became a stake winner in her 2008 debut when she posted her lifetime best 90 speed rating in a 6 furlong NJ sprint against a small 4 horse field. She has not been able to duplicate those results in a pair of stake starts since and makes the climb to her Graded stakes debut today. While she tried front running tactics last time out I would not expect her to be able to do that here with the pace expected to be quite quick and while she has shown an ability to close from midpack while running 7 furlongs from her first 2 lifetime wins last year she will have to show dramatic improvement to prove she can handle this rise in class today. The rider for today’s race will be Mecklenburg (11.3%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—85.
13)ANOTHER SHOT(KY)—8/1—amybab1 sends this filly out of SKY MESA with a record of 8-4-2-1 and lifetime earnings of $192,220. This 253rd divisional ranked filly races for Doctahg’s No Dentition stables based over at Del/Penn National. This filly was a quick starter in her career winning her first 3 starts including a retricted residence stakes along with a pair of 2nd place stake finishes last fall. She then tried her first Graded event at DPCD and after a dissapointing result seemed to have changed tactics from her trainer for the 2008 season. She was switched to the turf and in fact won an 8 furlong stake event on the grass last time out in MD where she posted her lifetime best 94 speed rating. But, she returns today to a dirt sprint, which is a complete reversal of conditions as she has routed in her last 4 starts and ran on the grass in her last 2. Turf to dirt handicappers will be paying close attention to this one today to see if a boost in performance will be forthcoming. One thing for sure is she runs best when on or pressing the lead and she may have her hands full here with a pair of speedy fillies drawing inside of her in the starting gate. This filly will be a difficult one to pin down handicapping wise as displayed by her 8/1 morning line. The rider for today’s race will be Pimental (16.3%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
14)DERELECT NOONAN(KY)—15/1—phartlap6 sends this filly out of JOHAR with a record of 9-5-1-0 and lifetime earnings of $152,090. She is out of the mare MINE DEELITES who was 2/11 at the track and who has 2 foals on record with this stakes winning filly the only winner so far to date. This 63rd divisional ranked filly races for the unafilliated Huhtamaki Stables. This filly responded well to switching to the dirt for her 2nd lifetime start after a turf try in her debut and ended up winning 4 races last year including a 7.5 furlong stake in TZ. She made her Graded debut to close out her 2 year old season in FL and ran an even respectable 4th but came back upstate in Northern California to start of the 2008 season and was never a factor being outrun in her second try at a Graded race. She did rebound to win a short field stake sprint in BC last time out but her 86 speed rating posted in that contest will have to be greatly improved upon to have her challenge for a top 3 spot in this race today. While she seems to run best as a stalker or pace presser it is unclear how she will perform with what is expected to be quicker early fractions than she is used to in this race today. The rider for today’s race will be Bates (6.6%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—88.
Well the first of the 3 Grade I’s today provide a very interesting pace scenario and while there are many scenarios that could evolve I am going to gamble that #8 SARACEN can soften up the favorite #11 APPEAL THIS and leave the door open for #9 CK GHOST PROSPECT to rally down the stretch and get up for the win at the wire. I may box #2, 3 and #9 in order to try and pick up a bit of a price in the exotic wagering as well.
GOOD LUCK AND GOOD RACING
THEO