Big Race Preview 3539
We have a couple of big Derby Lock races this week. The Bluegrass Derby picture could get much clearer this week as the colts start to sort the selves out on the derby trail. One takes place in
Race: 3539.5111
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt
A starting position in the Bluegrass Derby is on the line in
Jesus Walks was made the morning line favorite but has some serious questions to answer. He really came along nicely late in his two year old season. He won a grade three and then topped that off with an impressive grade one win in December. His first start this year was in a listed stakes where he ran third but earned a nice speed figure. He would make his next start in the grade two Fountain of Ute where he got trounced finishing eleventh. As the distances get longer I think his ability gets more suspect. Still he has a pair of 100+ speed figure which many in the field do not. He is a stalker so look for him near the front.
The horse that looks best placed to win this race is Bluegrass Mystery. It took him seven tries to break his maiden but since breaking his maiden he has an allowance win and a listed stakes win. Last time out he stalked the pace and closed from six lengths back to earn a 102 speed figure while winning by two and a half lengths. He should get better with distance and unlike many here he appears to be moving forward.
Pyralis ran second in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Dirt. He has two races this year as a three year old. He won a grade three in January and ran a solid race in a grade two in February. In that grade two he did finish sixth but was less than two lengths from the winner so it was a competitive race for him. He has had a few extra weeks off and should be able to move forward.
Lifeless Pulp is a deep closer you may want to keep an eye on. She is a late bloomer just now starting to show the ability to compete at this level. In two starts as a two year old she has a second place finish in a listed stakes and a third place finish in a grade three. Sometimes deep closers take a little time to develop their closing kick. She could be one that takes a big step forward here as well.
Race: 3539.0214
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt
Compared to the race in
There are four runners sharing favoritism at seven to one but the one that looks the best is Lucky’s Carpet. We will get to see if that All Saint’s
Listening is one of those co favorites. He ran second last time out in the Fountain of Ute. He is a deep, deep closer. He comes from last and has really made some nice runs. Last time out he was second in the Fountain of Ute. Prior to that he just missed in the grade three Giant Slayer Classic by a quarter of a length. He is not by a top sire but you must respect his closing kick especially with all the pace in the race.
De Fu is one of the favorites and comes off a big race in sprint where he ran a 107 speed figure in a grade one. He is one for five in route races and has yet to prove at this level he can carry his speed. He should add to a quick pace here. Roman Plutonium won the Fountain of Ute but will likely be compromised here by De Fu. He has shown the ability to stalk but he will be further off the pace than he has every been.
The winner of the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Dirt is fourteen to one in this race. Fleet Daisy looks like a very nice long shot play here. He has only made one start as a three year old and he just missed in a grade two in February finishing third a half length from the winner. He has had quite a bit of time between races so there is a very real chance he needs a race before showing his best. He would not want to peak here but looks dangerous none the less. He is a mid pack runner looking to solidify his status as a top
Fallen God is another runner to take a long look at. He comes off an impressive grade two win where he had to battle the whole stretch for the win. He is by turf sire Montjeu but has won three of four career dirt races. He earned a 102 speed figure in that effort and seems to have plenty of room to move forward. He will likely stalk from off the pace and make his bid at the top of the stretch.
Race: 3539.6215 Little Guppy Classic – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and three eighths on the Turf
For those that did not want to run in
Black Coin is your morning line favorite. He has won stakes races from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and a half. Black Coin has been versatile in his distances and should be considered a contender at any distance. Last time out at a mile and a half Max California beat him pretty handily. Black Coin might be a little better at this level in slightly shorter distances. He has won eleven of eighteen career starts and will come from off the pace. He should make an impact late in the race.
Exclusive Habitat is an impressive four year old. Last year he had one race at a mile and a half where he ran second in a grade one. He cut back and stayed in races near a mile and a quarter for the rest of the year. He seems very capable of this distance and is an unknown quality at longer distances. Exclusive Habitat won two grade one races last year and comes off back to back listed stakes wins for this race. He likes to go to the lead and he could have some company in this race. If not he is a real danger to go wire to wire.
Max California might have to be considered a top ten mile and a half runner going right now. He is coming off a nice grade one win and looks to be in good form. He did not do well in the Breeder’s Bowl turf but ran third in the Japan Cup. He has a pair of grade one wins to his credit. He is more of a mid pack runner although last time out he was second for most of the race.
For a long shot take a look at Questing Beast. His last two races have been impressive. Last time out he was second to Max California finishing ahead of Black Coin. Prior to that was another good run in a listed stakes at a mile and a half where he ran second. His new found form puts him in a position to potentially make an impact here. He lays off the early pace toward the back and makes nice runs into the stretch.
Race: 3539.0316 The CORRELATION COEFFICIENT Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: Seven and half furlongs on the Dirt
This is a player bought grade one race. The race drew twelve runners and was no doubt purchased for the undefeated Miscalculation. This is a pretty sharp filly with a pedigree bred for route races but she has yet to make a start over a mile. This will be her sixth career start. She has won a grade two and last time out in another grade one player bought race she was much the best. If she wants a run in the Oaks she is going to at some point have to race over a mile. She will be a few lengths off the early pace and probably make short work of this field as well.
Mean Girl is one of the co favorites here. She has been running in route races and even had a second place finish in a grade one race a couple of races back. Last time out she ran in the same race as Miscalculation and regressed from her route form. She will need to pick it up if she wants to compete here.
Slave to Ambition ran a race two back in a listed stakes that could win this race. She has been running in long sprints in her last few races. She regressed a bit last time out but still managed to run third also in a listed stakes. She is a stalker and lays close to the early pace. She should be a player here and if she can repeat that race two back she might give the undefeated Miscalculation a run for her money.
Race: 3539.1416 The Senorita – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
This is a player bought race drawing nine entries. The race has drawn a very nice field of runners despite the lack of a full starting gate.
Sensible is the morning line favorite She has won eight of her nine career races. She has won her last five races all listed stakes as she tries to earn enough stakes points to make the oaks field. She has a great running style that puts her in a position to always be in a race. She stalks from just off the pace and has answered the bell each and every race.
Lovestruck is a grade one winning filly and the second choice on the morning line. She started the year off with a grade one win in the Sunny Florida. She came back to run second in a listed stakes race last time out and looks well positioned for this race. She will likely be mid pack in the early stages of the race and has never finished worse than second in her career. Expect another honest effort from her.
Nehi Orange seems bound and determined to dance every dance on her way to the Oaks. The problem for is that she could be worn out before she gets there. She ended her two year old season with a grade one win and started her three year old season with a grade one win. Last time out in the California Oaks she did not get the lead, tired and finished eighth. If she makes the lead here look out if not she needs to prove she can come from off the pace.
Race: 3539.2216
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: Two miles on the Dirt
This is a player bought grade one for the marathon fillies and mares. The field is led and will likely be dominated by Bom Bom. She is a two mile specialist winning six of her last seven races all at this two mile distance. She has two grade one wins and one grade three win mixed in that streak. This mare is slowing making a name for herself as one of the top two mile horses in the sim. She has not faced the boys to this point but she seems capable of competing with them at this distance. She is usually well off the pace and makes a long closing move. She will be tough to beat.
Blinding might be the only runner in the field capable of competing with the favorite. She has some nice speed figures like the 105 she earned three races back at thirteen furlongs. She has a couple of other 100+ speed figures and lots of experience in these long distances. Her one recent race at two miles did not turn out well for her. She will be going from turf to dirt so could get a nice boost from that. She stalks the pace most of the time so should be close to the pace.
Tiz Mon is a four year old filly that looks to have room to grow here. She ran at longer distances several times at three. She ran a solid 98 speed figure as a three year old at this distance. She comes off a nice allowance win at this distance. The speed figure was not great but she won by daylight. She should be close to the pace if not setting the pace and could make some noise.