Louisiana Justice Special showcases female milers

This week, Virginia highlights the race card with the fourth annual running of the Louisiana Justice Special. The race is for fillies and mares, four years and older, and runs over eight furlongs of turf for a $50000 purse. We’ve been dodging the weather all year here in Virginia, but our luck finally ran out, and the track has been downgraded to good for this event. Last year’s event was won by multiple stakes winner Gone Wylde, who came from the head of midpack to dominate the second half of the race, winning it by two and a quarter. This year’s race draws a field of nine, and once again we look to have a tight race, with the opportunity for a decent score at the betting window. For the second week in a row, the favortie goes off at relatively long odds, at 7/2 this week. Six of the remaining eight are sandwiched between 9/2 and 8/1 odds, with longshots of 11/1 and 16/1 rounding out the field. With the off track to contend with here, nearly anything could happen.

PP 1) LPGA Jade(NY) Sired by Jade Hunter, Trained by titleist. LPGA Jade(NY) is a four year old filly, making career start number twenty in this race. She has one prior stakes win to her credit, coming last May. After a roller coaster ride at graded levels last year, she has been tuning up at allowance level for this jump back to stakes competition. She has generated a record of 3-2-2-0-0 in her last ten starts, with a top speed of 106.2, also her career best, coming in her last start. That race was an A2n at eight and a half furlongs in Arkansas, where she owned the race down the stretch, besting a field of eleven by two and a half lengths. Eighteen of nineteen career starts have been on turf, and her best distance seems to be about a furlong longer in the nine to nine and a half range. She’s proven to be no slouch at this distance either, though, turning in five top three finishes in eight starts. Her only off track run was to starts back, and she showed no appreciable loss of speed, though she did seem to have a slight problem digging in for that late close. She is a midpack closer, and outside of graded level, her close has been very consistent. She did show some life at graded level as well, though seemed to cycle up and down every race. With the off track here, I think she would need something a bit longer to take her to the winner’s circle here.

PP 2) Stephe Squall(FR) Sired by Masterful(FR), Trained by cardinal10. Stephe Squall(FR), is running in her five year old season, seeing action in her thirty third career race here. She steps up to stakes level here for the fourth time, and she is still seeking her first win at this level. After posting back to back career bests to end last season and begin this one, her fortunes seem to turn as she stepped up in class, and she is still trying to recapture that form. Overall in her last ten she’s put up a record of 3-0-0-2-1, with a best speed figure of 107.8 earned in her first run this year. Her last start was an open allowance at eight and a half furlongs in New Jersey, where she found herself buried deep early, and was never really able to turn it around, finishing eighth in a field of fourteen. Twenty seven career turf starts have been her money maker, and we are right up the middle of her most effective distance here. In the eight to eight and a half furlong range, She has three wins and four top three finishes in six tries. Her only off track start was early last year, and it was one of her best to the early season, but it was also her first run beyond seven furlongs, which could be a contributing factor. She is a midpack closer, and her close has cover the entire range from abyssmal to beautiful over her last several starts. She has generally had problems at this level of competition, and the two great runs she had early this year seem to be th exception rather than the rule. There are too many more consistent runners in this field to recommend her here.

PP 3) Mendela(IRE) Sired by Alberto Giacometti(IRE), Trained by bossross. Mendela(IRE) is a four year old filly, taking the gate for her twenty second career start. She has five career stakes wins, including a Grade 2, four of which came during her two year old campaign. Her most recent was early last August. She steps back up to stakes competition following a tuneup at allowance level, after struggling in back to back stakes runs. Her last ten starts have seen her go 4-1-1-0-0 with five 100+ speed figures, capped by a 107.8 in a grade three in Florida last Autumn. Her last start was an A1t at this distance in Puerto Rico, where she ran away down the stretch to notch a length and three quarters victory in a packed field. She has never set hoof off the grass, and has proven herself capable anywhere between seven and nine furlongs. In this distance range, she has four wins and six top three finishes in nine career starts. She won her only off track start, posting what was then a career best 101.7 speed on a yielding track, so the softer track is not likely to be a problem for her here. She is a midpack closer, and her close has been more on than off, though timing has been a bit of an issue, with races where she fired too early or too late to be compeltely effective. The off track and the lack of breakout early speed work to her advantage here, and if she can run as she did in her last, she could be a late threat here.

PP 4) Credit Clock(KY) Sired by Fusaichi Pegasus, Trained by brentuk1. Credit Clock(KY) is a four year old filly, looking at her fifteenth career start in this race. She comes into this one off her first two stakes victories which have come back to back in her last two starts. She has put up and impressive 4-2-0-1-1 record in her last ten starts, breaking the 100+ mark in her last three starts, maxing at 108.2 in her second start this year. Her last start was the Jennifer’s Seas Challenge right here in Virginia two weeks ago, where she took the field gate to wire to win by an impressive three lengths in a field of six. Thirteen of fourteen career starts have been on the grass, and eight of them have been in this distance range, where she has four wins and seven top three finishes in those eight tries. Her only off track start was in a tough Grade 2 field in a race that was much shorter than her norm, and she acquitted herself well, closing over a length down the stretch before running out of ground, and posting one of her best speeds to that point. She generally runs as a stalker, and when called upon her close has been decent, but three of her last four wins have come gate to wire. She faces that same type of field here, with no real breakout early speed, and she could very well find herself setting the pace again in this one. If she gets out in front early as she did in her last, the off track her will simply add to her advantage. If she has any kind of cushion at the half, she could be the horse to beat in this one.

PP 5) Balalaika(IRE) Sired by Soviet Star, Trained by ranulff. Balalaika(IRE) makes her twenty third career start her as she runs in the fourth race of her four year old season. She takes her first shot at stakes here since early in her two year old season, propelled by three straight career best speeds leading up to this jump in class. Her record over her last ten runs is a nice 4-1-3-0-1, breaking the 100+ mark four times, capped by a 105.1 in her last start. That race was an open allowance at eight and a half furlongs in New Jersey, where she closed nearly eight lengths in the second half, six of them down the stretch before falling just short by three quarters in a pack at the wire. She made the switch to grass late in her two year old season, and her last seventeen have all been on turf. This has been her distance of choice, with nine starts in this range resulting in four wins and eight top three finishes. Her only off track start was at ten furlongs, and it resulted in the lowest speed figure since her two year old debut. Though the distance was a bit long for her, the effect of the soft track was obvious, cutting a big chunk off her speed even compared to her other start at that distance. She is a midpack to deep closer, and while her close has always been fairly consistent, and it has bordered on stellar this season. She has been on fire recently, and the speed setup here works quite well for her. It looks like the off track could tell a bigger story though, and she will need to overcome her aversion to the spongier surface to be a factor here.

PP 6) Nehru Sorbet Sired Rahy, Trained by dustit3. Nehru Sorbet is the expereinced elder of this field, and the six year old mare takes her thirty eighth career run here in this race. She has only recently stepped up to the stakes ranks in her last two starts, and she’s still looking for that first victory at this level. Her last ten starts have netted her a 3-4-0-1-1 record, with a best speed number of 102.7 earned in her last start of the 2007 season. Her last race was a stakes effort at seven furlongs in Ontario where she finished fifth in a field of seven, finding her jump too late to be effective. All but one of her career starts have been on turf, and fifteen of those have come in this distance range, resulting in nine top three finishes. She is easily the most experienced off track runner in this group with seven off track runs. She finished out of the top three only once in those seven, and her speeds were some of the best in her surronding starts, so the off track could be a plus for her here. She likes to stalk the early pace, but her close has been spotty recently though there have been some glimmers of glory here and there. With no real rabbit in this one, she should be pressing the pace early hoping to tire out the leader. I look for a strong break from her here, but her speeds haven’t been in the range to mount the pressure she will need to tire out her competition. The off track should help, but it is not likely to be enough to keep her from being caught as they enter the stretch.

PP 7) Lulu’s Foul Mood(KY) Sired by Forestry, Trained by stupor4. Lulu’s Foul Mood(KY) is a four year old filly, taking the track for her eighteenth career start here. She boasts a pair of previous stakes wins, with the most recent coming late last June. She’s run to a mark of 2-2-0-2-0 in her last ten, with her speed topping out at 96.4 in the final start of last season. Sixteen of seventeen career runs have been on turf, and she has covered distance from six to thirteen furlongs in her young career. Her best range speed wise has been ten to ten and a half furlongs, and her stakes victories came in eleven and twelve furlong efforts. In this distnace range she has a place and a show in four tries. She has never run on an off track. She tends to favor a stalker’s pace, but her speed figures have been enough to put on the serious pressure she needs early, especially in a shorter race. Unless we have a closet off track specialist here, look for a good early break, but not much more past first call.

PP 8) All Princess(IRE) Sired by Theatrical(IRE), Trained by princessj. All Princess(IRE) is a five year old mare, gracing the track for the twenty seventh time in this start. She is still seeking that first elusive win at stakes level, though she is no stranger to the competition here. Her last ten starts have watched her run to a record of 2-2-2-0-0 with four 100+ speeds, her best being a 106.1 early last December. Her last start was an open allowance at eight and a half in New Jersey, where she never seemed to find her legs, finishing a long out tenth in a field of fourteen. Twenty five starts have been on turf, and anywhere in the seven to nine furlong range have been prime real estate for her. In this distance range, she holds four wins and eight top three finishes in ten tries. This will be her first start on an off track, though it generally doesn’t pose a problem for Theatrical’s offspring. She is a midpack closer, and has shown some good ability, but has not been able to mount much of anything this year. She had a great 2007 season right up to her run in the DCPD race in her last start of last season, where she started a slide she hasn’t been able to recover from so far this season. Back to back races at ten furlongs seemed to take the wind out of her sails, and even dropping back to eight and a half in her last didn’t seem to help. She showed herself capable of putting up some good numbers last season, but she will need a serious return to that form to be a threat here.

PP 9) Maspero(NZ) Sired by Zabeel(NZ), Trained by ausracing. Maspero(NZ) is a four year old filly who comes into her eighteenth career start as the favorite in this race. She has four stakes wins to her credit, with her most recent coming on dirt late last October. In her last ten starts, she has put up a record of 3-2-1-1-1, with seven 100+ speed figures and a top speed of 106.8 coming in her first race of this season. Her last run was a stakes race at this distance on dirt in Wisconsin, where she looked to get bumped coming out of the gate and never recovered, finishing eighth in a field of ten. She is truly surface versatile, with 100+ speeds and stakes wins on both surfaces. This has been her distance range of choice, and she has four top three finishes in five turf starts. She has had a single off track start in her career, which was at Grade 2 level, and it didn’t seem to affect her speed or her close significantly. She is a deep closer, and overall her close has been very consistent in her recent starts. Her last start was her poorest effort in since early last summer, and it appears to have been due to a blazing early pace which found her out deep early. She shouldn’t have that problem here, though, and I think we can expect a much better effort from her in this one, with the more leisurely early pace. The filly that is likely to provide the early fireworks here should have plenty of gas for the second half, and it will most likely be the off track that is the deciding factor. If this filly can dig in on the softer surface, she should be seriously threatening as they run for home here.