Group 1 Dubai Kahayla Classic for Purebred Arabians, Dirt 2000 metres (10f)
There’s not surprisingly no SAf interest in this race, but we all like to see a champion and this race has one in the form of Madjani (Fr). Madjani has won the last three runnings of the race, equaling the record of the mare Unchainedd Melody (USA) who won it in 1997/98/99. With his 12 wins in 14 starts, Madjani looks all set to break that record and make it four Kahayla Classics.
Sheikh Hamdan, the owner of Madjani, has won six of the 12 runnings of this race, including the last five, while trainer Gillian Duffield has won it the last four times.
Speaking of Unchainedd Melody, her daughter takes part here and is not without a chance. Mizzna (Fr) has won eight of her 13 starts, including her last four races, for a record of (13) 8-4-1. She finished third last year and must have a money chance again.
Kandar Du Falgas (Fr) showed courage when going down to Madjani by a little more than a length over the same trip last time out and must be respected.
As beautiful as they are, Purebred Arabians are not quick, at least not when compared with thoroughbreds. Comparing the winning times of the Kahayla Classic with those of the World Cup suggests they are roughly 15 seconds slower over the 2000 metres, roughly equivalent to 75 lengths!
Group 2 Godolphin Mile, Dirt 1600 metres (8f)
South Africa has an interest in two runners here, Brave Tin Soldier (USA) and Jet Express (SAf).
Brave Tin Soldier raced in Britain for his first eight starts and then moved to Dubai to be trained by South Africa’s Mike De Kock. He will also be ridden by a South African jockey, Kevin Shea. He probably needed his first UAE start when well beaten in a turf sprint handicap. He then switched to this trip for his dirt debut and was soundly beaten by both Elusive Warning (USA) and Blackat Blackitten (Ire) in the Gr3 Burj Nahaar. With that pair looking like the ones to beat, Brave Tin Soldier would do well to grab any of the minor money here.
Jet Express has raced in Dubai many times and proved capable at handicap level but struggles when stepping up to Group class. He finished just in front of Brave Tin Soldier last time out and likewise would do well to finish in the minor money.
The South African pair of Mike De Kock and Weichong Marwing won this race back in 2005 with Grand Emporium (SAf) but it has generally been dominated by USA-bred horses with their record of eight wins in the 14 renewals. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has won the race six times, four of those with Frankie Dettori in the saddle.
Current betting: 5/2 Blackat Blackitten (Ire), 11/4 Elusive Warning (USA), 3/1 Diamond Stripes (USA), 14/1 Baharah (USA) & Golden Arrow (Ire), 20/1 Barcola (USA), 33/1 Aleutian (GB) & Zakocity (USA), 40/1 Rosberg (USA), 50/1 Brave Tin Soldier (USA), Green Coast (Ire) & Halkin (USA), 66/1 Jet Express (SAf), 100/1 Watch What Happens (Fr), 200/1 Don Renato (Chi)
Group 2 UAE Derby, Dirt 1800 metres (9f)
South Africa holds a strong hand in the derby with an interest in three runners: Ukrainian (Brz), Royal Vintage (SAf) and Honour Devil (Arg).
Ukrainian is owned by Fred Crabbia, once a major owner in South Africa but now based abroad, in Singapore mostly. The horse has won four times from 11 starts and shown some ability in Dubai but nothing like what it will take to win this race. His position as the longshot in the field is not unexpected.
Honour Devil and Royal Vintage both contested the first two legs of the UAE Triple Crown, and the scores are level. In the Gr3 UAE 2000 Guineas over 1600 metres, Honour Devil got the first run and Royal Vintage tried to chase him down, failing by half-a-length. They had My Indy (Arg) about four lengths behind them.
In the listed Al Bastikya over 1800 metres, roles were reversed as Honour Devil tried to chase down Royal Vintage. He too failed, going down a head, with Numaany (USA) not disgraced under two lengths further back. Royal Vintage carried a kilogram more that day and they race at level weights this time. Both horses are trained by Mike De Kock and Shea will be aboard Royal Vintage.
Only two trainers have won this race in its eight year history; Saeed bin Suroor and Mike De Kock. De Kock’s three wins have occurred in the last five years with Asiatic Boy (Arg), Lundy’s Liability (Brz) and Victory Moon (SAf). With Bin Suroor being the trainer of My Indy, Numaany and the classy filly Cocoa Beach (Chi), few will be betting against one of the two trainers taking home the derby again.
Current betting: 15/8 Honour Devil (Arg), 11/4 Royal Vintage (SAf), 6/1 Cocoa Beach (Chi), 12/1 Massive Drama (USA), 14/1 My Indy (Arg), 16/1 Strike The Deal (USA), 20/1 Numaany (USA), 25/1 Rock Ascot (Uru), 33/1 Iide Kenshin (Jpn), 40/1 Light Green (Brz), 50/1 Ukranian (Brz)
Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, Dirt 1200 metres (6f)
South Africa has never had any success in the Golden Shaheen, a race not surprisingly dominated by the USA-breds. They have won all but two of the 14 runnings of the race, though no trainer or jockey has managed to dominate with a couple having managed two victories each. Our two candidates this year, Drift Ice (SAf) and Narc (SAf), are both capable sorts but probably have a bit to find to win at the highest level against the Americans. I’d imagine that the connections would be very happy with a money finish from either horse.
Drift Ice has had a busy three months in Dubai, having run seven times and recorded three victories, two normal handicaps and a stakes level handicap race. His wins were on both surfaces and from 5 furlongs to 7.5 furlongs. He’s clearly versatile but can he manage the step up in class? Kevin Shea rides him as usual.
Narc is an interesting runner. Back home he was probably our top dirt sprinter, having won the Gr2 Emerald Cup last time out, and sporting a record of 10 wins from 15 starts. The fact is though that the level of our dirt racing must be divisions below that in the USA, with our focus on turf, and there’s no way of knowing how good he is. He also hasn’t run since September last year and could very well need the run.
Benny The Bull (USA) arrives here with a Gr1 win under the belt, as recently as November, and is not surprisingly at the top of the betting boards. Idiot Proof (USA) is likewise a Gr1 winner in the USA and ran second to Midnight Lute in the BC Sprint. This too is form hard to argue with. Godolphin will fancy their chances with Diabolical (USA). Before moving to his new home in Dubai, he had recorded two Gr1 seconds placed finishes in the USA. He needed his Dubai debut when fourth to Asiatic Boy and won smartly last time out, trouncing a Gr3 field which included Star Crowned (USA) and New Freedom (Brz).
Current betting: 7/4 Benny The Bull (USA), 7/2 Diabolical (USA), 5/1 Idiot Proof (USA), 14/1 Barbecue Eddie (USA), 16/1 Bushwacker (USA), 25/1 Munaddam (USA) & Narc (SAf), 33/1 Cobalt Blue (USA), Drift Ice (SAf), Esperamos (USA), Mutamarres (GB) & New Freedom (Brz), 40/1 Calrissian (Ger), 50/1 Sarissa (Brz) & Star Crowned (USA)
Group 1 Dubai Duty Free, Turf 1777 metres (8.89f)
South Africa has won this race twice before; in 2003 with the great Ipi Tombe (Zim) and the following year with Right Approach (Gb), now at stud in South Africa. Both horses were trained by Mike De Kock and had Shea and Marwing aboard respectively. Saeed bin Suroor holds the record of four wins but those were all in the first five years of the race and he hasn’t won it in the subsequent eight runnings. In the last seven years, no two winners were bred in the same country with all of Japan, USA, Australia, Germany, Great Britain, Zimbabwe and France getting on the scoreboard.
Although all in double figures, South Africa has a decent hand this year with Archipenko (USA) from the De Kock yard as well as Jay Peg (SAf) and Linngari (Ire) from the Herman Brown stable. Shea will ride Archipenko and Anton Marcus will be aboard Jay Peg.
Archipenko, a son of Kingmambo, has won Gr2’s in Ireland and Dubai and is likely destined to stallion duties in South Africa. He began his time in the care of Mike De Kock with a modest sprint after a five month break but followed that up with a two length victory in the Gr2 Al Fahidi Fort over a mile. Considering his Gr2 Derby Trial victory in Ireland over 2000 metres almost a year ago, he’ll have no problem with the extra distance on Saturday and the stable must be hopeful of a good showing.
Jay Peg was a high class three year old back home in South Africa, recording eight wins in his first 10 starts including the Gr1 Cape Guineas and the Gr1 Cape Derby. He was never the sort to win by big margins, but somehow always seemed to have things go his way when it counted. He’s failed to win in six starts since though, but has has gone down about a length four times. He has shown improvement in each of his two starts since a poor Dubai debut and could be capable of causing an upset at huge odds.
Linngari is a high class miler, a Gr1 winner in Italy, and finished a half length second in this race last year behind Admire Moon. The pair left Daiwa Major trailing in their wake, more than four lengths back. Linngari ran a surprisingly poor race last time out, a run that is probably best ignored. Trainer Herman Brown will likely be looking for Linngari to give him his first winner at the World Cup meeting, and the odds on offer look quite generous.
Saeed bin Suroor holds a very strong hand with Literato (Fr) and Creachadoir (Ire). Literato has a fantastic record of nine wins and two seconds from 11 starts, including a win in the Gr1 Champion Stakes last time out. Against him is that he hasn’t run five months. Creachadoir failed by a nose in the Gr1 Hong Kong Mile last time out and had Darjina (Fr) a little more than a length behind him. The filly herself is a triple Gr1 winner and beat both Ramonti and George Washington in the Gr1 Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp in July last year.
Current betting: 4/1 Literato (Fr), 5/1 Creachadoir (Ire) & Darjina (Fr), 10/1 Admire Aura (JPN) & Vodka (Jpn), 14/1 Finsceal Beo (Ire) & Floral Pegasus (USA), 16/1 Linngari (Ire), 20/1 Archipenko (USA), 25/1 Bullish Luck (USA), Majestic Roi (USA) & Niconero (Aus), 40/1 Seachange (NZ), 50/1 Notional (USA), 66/1 Jay Peg (SAf) & Lord Admiral (USA)
Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic, Turf 2400 metres (12f)
South Africa managed to break through in this race last year when trainer David Ferraris and jockey Anthony Delpech, both based in Hong Kong at the time, combined with Vengeance Of Rain (NZ) to take the trophy. No-one has managed to dominate this race with Saeed bin Suroor, Frankie Dettori and Kieran Fallon having managed two wins each. Like the Duty Free, winning pedigrees have been varied with New Zealand, Japan (2), Ireland (2), USA (3) and Great Britain (2) having bred the 10 winners to date.
South Africa has a decent chance of scoring here too with Sun Classique (Aus) and Oracle West (SAf) running for Mike de Kock and Sushisan (Aus) in the Herman Brown yard. Sun Classique will have Shea aboard.
Sun Classique was bred in Australia by a South African and brought ‘home’ to race. She’s a triple Gr1 winner but those were all against her own sex. She will have many, many supporters back home for this race but I still have my doubts as she has yet to prove she can beat the boys. Perhaps I’m being overly critical as her run in the Durban July, where was beaten only 1.50 lengths, was a top effort considering her wide draw of 20 from 20 runners. She won both her starts in Dubai last month, both stakes races against fillies, and her victory last time out was nothing short of incredible with Shea having to haul her 45 degrees off a straight line to get out of traffic problems.
Sushisan, like Sun Classique, is a son of Fuji Kiseki (Jpn). He’s yet to break through at feature level but placed in two open company Gr1’s back in South Africa, was beaten only three lengths in fifth place in this race last year and under three lengths in the Gr1 QE2 Cup in Hong Kong behind Viva Pataca (Gb).
Oracle West is as game as they come but has had trouble getting into the winners box in recent time. He was beaten in the Gr3 Dubai City of Gold last time out in a blanket finish by Gower Song (GB) and Mourilyan (Ire). In this race last year, he was beaten just over a length into second place by Vengeance Of Rain and had Youmzain (Ire) just behind him. In last years City of Gold, he went down by just over a length to Quijano (Ger) but the score beaten the those rivals is two each. He also made a raid to Canada in October last year, finishing only 5th but under two lengths back in the Gr1 Canadian International, with Quijano narrowly ahead of him.
Hong Kong will be looking to complete the double in the Sheema Classic, this time with Viva Pataca. He has won 13 times from 25 starts and has beaten last years winner, Vengeance Of Rain, more than once. He arrives in top form with three Gr1 wins in his last seven starts.
Current betting: 7/4 Viva Pataca (GB), 6/1 Youmzain (Ire), 8/1 Doctor Dino (Fr) & Sun Classique, 12/1 Oracle West (SAf) & Quijano (Ger), 16/1 Mourilyan (Ire), 20/1 Gravitas (GB) & West Wind (GB), 33/1 Better Talk Now (USA), Latency (Arg), Spring House (USA), Sushisan (Aus)& Yellowstone (Ire), 40/1 Dansant (GB) & Gower Song (GB)
Group 1 Dubai World Cup, Dirt 2000 metres (10f)
Not surprisingly, USA-breds have the best record in the World Cup with six wins from 12. Argentina broke the stranglehold of the northern hemisphere when Invasor scored last year. Saaed bin Suroor has managed an impressive five victories while Frankie Dettori’s three wins doesn’t quite match the four of Jerry Bailey. The best South Africa has managed is the third place finish by Victory Moon (SAf), now at stud in South Africa, back in 2004.
This years race is all about Curlin (USA). All those that feel they have serious chances here, will have to find a way to beat him and by all accounts, he’ll probably have to beat himself to lose. That said, there are quite a few here that will be fancy their chances of getting that second spot and maybe picking up the pieces if something doesn’t go quite right for Curlin.
South Africa has two runners, Asiatic Boy (Arg) and Lucky Find (SAf), both trained by Mike De Kock and the latter ridden by Kevin Shea. This race has been targeted for Asiatic Boy ever since his Dubai Triple Crown victories last year and he was unbeaten in Dubai until his below par last effort. Reports are that he was underdone that day and will be at his best this time.
Lucky Find surprised many with his facile Dubai dirt debut in a high level handicap three runs back. The race had been switched from the turf due to rain, and he relished running on the dirt track. He followed up with an easy win in the Gr3 Maktoum Challenge Round 2 and was then beaten just over two lengths by Jalil (USA) in the Gr2 Maktoum Challenge Round 3. Gloria De Campeao (Brz) was a length ahead of him in that race as well. He has a tough task ahead to finish in the money here but his supporters will not be without hope, considering that Jalil is the second favourite.
Current betting: 4/9 Curlin (USA), 7/1 Jalil (USA), 12/1 Asiatic Boy (Arg), 16/1 Vermilion (Jpn), 20/1 Happy Boy (Brz) & Premium Tap (USA), 33/1 A P Arrow, 40/1 Kocab (GB), 50/1 Gloria De Campeao (Brz) & Well Armed (USA), 66/1 Lucky Find (SAf), 100/1 Great Hunter (USA), 200/1 Sway Yed (KSA)